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5:35 pm EST: The SP500 gapped down from 6629 to 6618, dropped to 6603 (day’s low), then traded sideways until a late day rally to 6679 (day’s high) and closed at 6664.
VIX: The VIX closed above its upper BB on Thursday, Oct 16th triggering the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal.The VIX closed well below its upper BB on Friday, Oct 17th confirming step 2 of the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal. A red VIX on Monday, Oct 20th will nail down this bullish signal.
Daily Chart Divergence: With the new all-time high at 6750 on Friday, Oct 3rd there is potential for a -DIV to form on the daily chart RSI.
“Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.”Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. October started at 6641, so that implies a target at 7092 by Dec 31st, 2025. https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=1.23P1 target at 8086. The major [1]-P5 wave will have 5 minor degree waves. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6764, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 at 6794. The minor 4 wave is playing out as a contracting triangle with the minute (a) wave completed at 6551, which is the 13% Fib retrace. The minute (b) completed at 6724 and minute (c) at 6594. The minute (d) up is underway and minute (e) down is yet to fully unfold to complete the triangle. Once triangle minor 4 wave completes., the minor 5 wave target is at 7197, where minor 5 = minor 1. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 6551.
“Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.”Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. October started at 6641, so that implies a target at 7092 by Dec 31st, 2025. https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=1.23P1 target at 8086. The major [1]-P5 wave will have 5 minor degree waves. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6764, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 at 6794. The minor 4 wave is playing out as a contracting triangle with the minute (a) wave completed at 6551, which is the 13% Fib retrace. The minute (b) completed at 6724 and minute (c) at 6594. The minute (d) up and minute (e) down are yet to fully unfold to complete the triangle. Once triangle minor 4 wave completes., the minor 5 wave target is at 7197, where minor 5 = minor 1. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 6551.
SP500 Buy Signal Trifecta: This signal was triggered at the close on Friday, Oct 10th.All three signals closed back inside their respective Bollinger Bands (BB) on Monday, October 13th to confirm (See the linked chart above for the details).Note: The VIX did not close red on Tuesday, October for its final confirmation.
Daily Chart Divergence: With the new all-time high at 6750 on Friday, Oct 3rd there is potential for a -DIV to form on the daily chart RSI.
“Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.”Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. October started at 6641, so that implies a target at 7092 by Dec 31st, 2025. https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=1.23P1 target at 8086. The major [1]-P5 wave will have 5 minor degree waves. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6764, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 at 6794. The minor 4 wave is playing out as a contracting triangle with the minute (a) wave completed at 6551, which is the 13% Fib retrace. The minute (b) completed at 6724 and minute (c) at 6712. The minute (d) up and minute (e) down are yet to fully unfold to complete the triangle. Once triangle minor 4 wave completes., the minor 5 wave target is at 7197, where minor 5 = minor 1. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 6551.
7:15 pm EST: The SP500 gapped down from 6654 to 6602, dropped to 6555 (day’s low), rallied to 6681 (day’s high), then dropped late in the day to 6626 and closed at 6644.
SP500 Buy Signal Trifecta: This signal was triggered at the close on Friday, Oct 10th.All three signals closed back inside their respective Bollinger Bands (BB) on Monday, October 13th to confirm (See the linked chart above for the details).Note: The VIX did not close red on Tuesday, October for its final confirmation.
Daily Chart Divergence: With the new all-time high at 6750 on Friday, Oct 3rd there is potential for a -DIV to form on the daily chart RSI.
“Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.”Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. October started at 6641, so that implies a target at 7092 by Dec 31st, 2025. https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=1.23P1 target at 8086. The major [1]-P5 wave will have 5 minor degree waves. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6764, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 at 6794. The minor 4 wave completed at the 13% Fib of 6548. (However, it is possible that the minor could form triangle wave here, taking up more time but holding above the 6551 low). The minor 5 wave target is at 7197, where minor 5 = minor 1. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 6551.
The alternate (blue) count is that the minor 4 wave will correct deeper than 6551 to the 23% Fib retrace at 6382. The drop from 6764 to 6551 is the minute (a) wave of minor 4. The move up to 66681 (thus far) is the minute (b) wave of minor 4, which is the 78% Fib retrace at 6683. Once the minute (b) wave completes, the minute (c) wave of minor 4 will break below 6551. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid below the 6764 high.
SP500 Buy Signal Trifecta: This signal was triggered at the close on Friday, Oct 10th.Now all three signals must close back inside their respective Bollinger Bands (BB) on Monday, Qctober 13th to confirm (See the linked chart above for the details).
Daily Chart Divergence: With the new all-time high at 6750 on Friday, Oct 3rd there is potential for a -DIV to form on the daily chart RSI.
“Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.”Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. October started at 6641, so that implies a target at 7092 by Dec 31st, 2025. https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=1.23P1 target at 8086. The major [1]-P5 wave will have 5 minor degree waves. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6764, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 at 6794. The minor 4 wave completed at the 13% Fib of 6548. (However, it is possible that the minor could form triangle wave here, taking up more time but holding above the 6551 low). The minor 5 wave target is at 7197, where minor 5 = minor 1. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 6551.
The alternate (blue) count is that the minor 4 wave will correct deeper than 6551 to the 23% Fib retrace at 6382. The drop from 6764 to 6551 is the minute (a) wave of minor 4. The move up to 6668 (thus far) is the minute (b) wave of minor 4, with the 62%/78% Fib retrace targets at 6683 and 6717. Once the minute (b) wave completes, the minute (c) wave of minor 4 will break below 6551. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid below the 6764 high.
9:45 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 6735 to 6749, quickly hit 6762 (day’s high), then began a large drop the rest the day to close on the low at 6551.
SP500 Buy Signal Trifecta: This signal was triggered at the close on Friday, Oct 10th.Now all three signals must close back inside their respective Bollinger Bands (BB) to confirm (See the linked chart above for the details).
Daily Chart Divergence: With the new all-time high at 6750 on Friday, Oct 3rd there is potential for a -DIV to form on the daily chart RSI.
“Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.”Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. October started at 6641, so that implies a target at 7092 by Dec 31st. https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=1.23P1 target at 8086. The major [1]-P5 wave will have 5 minor degree waves. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6764, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 at 6794. The minor 4 wave is underway and may have completed at the 13% Fib of 6548 or could retrace to the 23% Fib at 6382 (alt blue labels). Once the minor 4 wave completes, the minor 5 wave will move above 6764.
8:55 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 6753 to 6760, quickly hit 6764 (day’s high and new all-time high!), then dropped to 6716 (day’s low) and closed at 6735.
“Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.”Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. October started at 6641, so that implies a target at 7092 by Dec 31st. https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6409, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 at 6394. The minor 4 wave completed as an expanded flat wave at 6212. The minor 5 wave up is underway with a target of 6858, where minor 5=1. Within the minor 5 wave, minute (1) completed at 6481, minute (2) at 6344, minute (3) at 6699 and minute (4) at 6569. The final minute (5) wave of minor 5 is underway that has moved above 6699 and should head for 6858. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled is valid above 6677.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 3 of major [1] to 6794, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1. Once the minor 3 wave completed, the minor 4 wave should target at the 23% Fib retrace of 6405.
5:10 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 6714 to 6723, quickly hit 6730, dropped to 6718 (day’s low), the rallied the rest of the day to hit 6755 (day’s high and new all-time high!) and closed at 6753 (new all-time closing high!).
“Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.”Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. October started at 6641, so that implies a target at 7092 by Dec 31st. https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6409, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 at 6394. The minor 4 wave completed as an expanded flat wave at 6212. The minor 5 wave up is underway with a target of 6858, where minor 5=1. Within the minor 5 wave, minute (1) completed at 6481, minute (2) at 6344, minute (3) at 6699 and minute (4) at 6569. The final minute (5) wave of minor 5 is underway that has moved above 6699 and should head for 6858. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled is valid above 6677.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 3 of major [1] to 6794, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1. Once the minor 3 wave completed, the minor 4 wave should target at the 23% Fib retrace of 6405.
5:10 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 6740 to 6745, quickly hit 6754 (day’s high and new all-time high!), dropped to 6700 (day’s low) and closed at 6714.
“Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.”Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. October started at 6641, so that implies a target at 7092 by Dec 31st. https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6409, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 at 6394. The minor 4 wave completed as an expanded flat wave at 6212. The minor 5 wave up is underway with a target of 6858, where minor 5=1. Within the minor 5 wave, minute (1) completed at 6481, minute (2) at 6344, minute (3) at 6699 and now minute (4) at 6569. The final minute (5) wave of minor 5 is underway that has moved above 6699 and should head for 6858. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled is valid above 6677.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 3 of major [1] is complete at 6754, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1. The minor 4 wave is underway with and initial target at the 23% Fib retrace of 6374. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid below 6754.
8:15 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 6715 to 6733, rose to hit 6738, dropped to 6717 (day’s low), rallied to 6749 (day’s high and all-time high!) and closed at 6740 (all-time close high!).
“Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.”Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. October started at 6641, so that implies a target at 7092 by Dec 31st. https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6409, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 at 6394. The minor 4 wave completed as an expanded flat wave at 6212. The minor 5 wave up is underway with a target of 6858, where minor 5=1. Within the minor 5 wave, minute (1) completed at 6481, minute (2) at 6344, minute (3) at 6699 and now minute (4) at 6569. The final minute (5) wave of minor 5 is underway that has moved above 6699 and should head for 6858. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled is valid above 6677.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 3 of major [1] is complete at 6750 or nearly complete, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1. Once the minor 3 wave is complete, minor 4 wave will target the 23% Fib retrace of 6405.
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