October 14th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on October 14, 2025
7:15 pm EST: The SP500 gapped down from 6654 to 6602, dropped to 6555 (day’s low), rallied to 6681 (day’s high), then dropped late in the day to 6626 and closed at 6644.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Buy Signal Trifecta: This signal was triggered at the close on Friday, Oct 10th. All three signals closed back inside their respective Bollinger Bands (BB) on Monday, October 13th to confirm (See the linked chart above for the details). Note: The VIX did not close red on Tuesday, October for its final confirmation.
- Daily Chart Divergence: With the new all-time high at 6750 on Friday, Oct 3rd there is potential for a -DIV to form on the daily chart RSI.
- $NYAD: The $NYAD is showing a potential -DIV with the new SP-500 all-time high at 6750 on Friday, Oct 3rd. $NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- “Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.” Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. October started at 6641, so that implies a target at 7092 by Dec 31st, 2025.
https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373). https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
- Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845): https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
- Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB: https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=1.23P1 target at 8086. The major [1]-P5 wave will have 5 minor degree waves. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6764, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 at 6794. The minor 4 wave completed at the 13% Fib of 6548. (However, it is possible that the minor could form triangle wave here, taking up more time but holding above the 6551 low). The minor 5 wave target is at 7197, where minor 5 = minor 1. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 6551.
- The alternate (blue) count is that the minor 4 wave will correct deeper than 6551 to the 23% Fib retrace at 6382. The drop from 6764 to 6551 is the minute (a) wave of minor 4. The move up to 66681 (thus far) is the minute (b) wave of minor 4, which is the 78% Fib retrace at 6683. Once the minute (b) wave completes, the minute (c) wave of minor 4 will break below 6551. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid below the 6764 high.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-minm chart:
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
You must be logged in to post a comment.