Long Term SP-500 View
11-4-16: Primary 5 of Cycle 1 (P5-C1) is targeting the P5=P1 = 2513 area.
8-11-16: The SP-500 Cycle 1 (C1)-SCV wave price has reached the minimum Fibonacci extension target is 2162, where P5=0.5*P1. There are higher targets at the typical target of 2246, where P5=0.62*P1 and the maximum target of P5=P1 = 2513.
6-6-16: The SP-500 Cycle 1 (C1) wave is extending. Minimum Fibonacci extension target is 2162, where P5=0.5*P1, the typical target is 2246, where P5=0.62*P1 and the maximum target is P5=P1 = 2513.
SP-500 Weekly Chart:
SP-500 Monthly Chart:
3-10-16: SP-500 is experiencing the major -PC-C2 wave counter-trend rally that should end in the 2019/2046 pivot area.
SP-500 Weekly Chart:
1-15-16: Really good start to 2016 for the primary wave count forecast. The SP-500 continues to roll over after the Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave bounce to the just above the 88% retrace at 2116. The Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1555 to 1575 target my mid-year 2016 is underway.
SP-500 Monthly Chart:
12-31-15: The SP-500 continues to roll over after the Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave bounce to the just above the 88% retrace at 2116. The Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1555 to 1575 target my mid-year 2016 is underway.
SP-500 Weekly Chart:
SP-500 Monthly Chart:
11-4-15: The SP-500 completed it’s Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave bounce to the just above the 88% retrace at 2116. The Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1555 to 1575 target my mid-year 2016 is underway.
SP-500 Weekly Chart:
9-18-15: The SP-500 continues to fall in a bear market Cycle degree wave 2 (C2) as forecast back in June 2015. The Primary A (PA) wave is likely complete at 1867. I’m expecting the Primary B (BP) wave to bounce between 1867 to 2046 for a few months below breaking down in a the Primary C (PC) wave headed for the 1555-1575 target area to complete the C2 wave in mid-year 2016.
SP-500 Weekly Chart:
SP-500 Monthly Chart:
6-23-15: Back in October 2009 PUG SMA called the Super Cycle IV (SC-IV) bottom at 667 and correctly predicted that the SP-500 would move above the 1575 all-time high over the next several years as Cycle 1 (C1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) was underway (see Oct 2009 SP-500 daily chart and the Long-Term View history of how the bullish wave count model unfolded over the past 6 years).
Now here in the early summer of 2015 PUG SMA is once again making a bold call that Cycle 1 (C1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) is coming to end in the 2135 to 2172 area. This should open the door for a 6 month to 1 year-long Cycle 2 (C2) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) correction of between -25% and -33% down to the 38%/50% Fibonacci retrace target area of 1577/1404 (basis 2135). Basically the SP-500 is likely to test the old all-time high of 1575 before moving much higher (3210 to 3388) in Cycle 3 (C3) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) over following decade into the years 2024 to 2027. Ultimately Cycle 5 (C5) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) should reach above 4000 by the years 2031 to 2034.
5-27-15: The SP-500 looks to have completed of Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) at 2135 or if not then it should end below 2226. The Cycle 2 (C2) correction should retrace about 50% of Cycle 1 (C1) down to the 1440 pivot area over the next year.
4-22-15: The SP-500 is nearing the completion of Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V), which should end below 2185. The Cycle 2 (C2) correction should retrace about 50% of Cycle 1 (C1) down to the 1440 pivot area over the next year.
2-5-15: The SP-500 continues to track the PUG SMA Primary Wave count and is now in the final Primary Wave 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V). The P5-C1 wave first target area is the 2250 area.
12-5-14: The SP-500 continues to track the PUG SMA Primary Wave count and is now in the final Primary Wave 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V). The P5-C1 wave first target area is the 2250 area.
10-17-14: PUG Stock Market Analysis called SP-500 Primary Degree Wave 4 (P4) low at 1820 the day after it occurred on October 15th. Now looking for the Primary Degree Wave 5 (P5) of Cycle Degree Wave 1 (C1) to reach the 2200 to 2500 area over next 3 to 9 months.
10-1-14: The SP-500 Primary Degree Wave 3 (P3) has topped at 2019. I’m now looking for a Primary 4 (P4) correction to at least the 23% Fibonacci retracement at 1802 or possibly the 38% retrace at 1660.
8-7-14: Looks like minor 4 of major -P3-C3 is complete at 1905 and minor 5 should now move above 1991 to complete P3-C1.
SP-500 weekly chart (8-7-14):
7-18-14: P3-C1 extension beyond P3=1.23*P1 = 1941 currently underway. Next target is major = = 2085 and then P3= 1.62*P1 =2215.
SP-500 weekly chart (7-18-14):
5-30-14: The SP-500 Primary 3 (P3) of Cycle 1 (C-1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) top is very near.
SP-500 weekly chart (5-30-14):
4-29-14: The SP-500 Primary 3 (P3) of Cycle 1 (C-1) of Super Cycle V (SC-V) top is likely very near.
SP-500 weekly chart (4-29-14):
SP-500 monthly chart (4-29-14):
3-4-14: The Sp-500 is still on track to reach the P3-C1 target of 1941.
2-21-14: The SP-500 should break above the all-time high of 1851 and move towards the P3-C1 target of 1941.
1-7-14: The SP-500 continues to move higher toward the P3-C1 target of 1941 per the primary wave count.
11-22-13: The SP-500 continues to march higher in P3-C1 per the primary wave count.
10-9-13: Key market turning point call made the day the SP-500 bottomed at 1646.
SP-500 Weekly Chart (10-9-13):
9-20-13: The SP-500 is topping out in P3-C1 as forecast.
SP-500 Weekly Chart (9-20-13):
7-18-13: The SP-500 continues to unfold as forecast.
SP-500 Weekly Chart (7-18-13):
5-14-13: For the SP-500 I have revised of Long-Term Wave Count Bull Model to a Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V (i.e. Cycle Degree Wave Model for Super Cycle V that began in March 2009). The move from 667 to 1646 has been to rapid (4 years) to be near the completion of Super Cycle V and thus, the wave count is reduced by one degree from Super Cycle to Cycle degree. C1 of SCV is nearing completion of major -P3 at the target area of 1665. Ultimately P3-C1 should reach the 1779 area where P3=P1 and P5-C1 should reach about 1947, where P5=0.62*P1. Completion of Cycle Degree 1 is targeted for late 2014 to mid-2015. From the C1-SCV top there will be a significant correction for C2-SCV down to the 1150 to 1300 area.
SP-500 Weekly Chart (5-14-2013):
SP-500 Monthly Chart (5-14-2013):
4-11-13: If you look back to the first post down below on this Long-Term SP-500 View from Oct 30, 2009, you will see that PUG SMA, LLC was looking for a move above the 1575 All-Time high on the SP-500. This past week that long-term forecast from 3.5 years ago was fullfilled. 🙂
SP-500 Weekly Chart (4-11-13):
2-27-13: The SP-500 long-term view continues to unfold as forecast. Here are the updated daily and weekly charts.
SP-500 Weekly Chart (2-27-13):
1-25-13: The SP-500 long-term view continues to unfold as forecast.
SP-500 Daily Chart (1-25-13):
12-17-12: Here is the latest SP-500 long-term view update.
SP-500 Weekly Chart (12-17-12):
9-14-12: The SP-500 broke out to new highs in the major -P3-C3 wave that had been forecast by the primary count since the C2 low of 1267 in early June 2012.
SP-500 Weekly Chart (9-14-12):
8-10-12: Below is the updated SP-500 Daily Chart with primary count (white/gree) looking right on schedule to make a new high above 1422. The wave -P3-C3 target is at 1512 and the wave -P3-C3 target is at 1553.
7-11-12: Here is the updated SP-500 Daily Chart with the primary count (white/green) with major -P3-C3 headed above 1500+ after major  completes at 1327-12 and the lower probability alternate (blue) count where P2-C3 will play out as a flat and after major [B] tests 1400-1422 major [C]-P3-C3 will re-test the 1267 low from early June 2012.
SP-500 Daily Chart (7-11-12):
3-30-12: The P1-C3 price objective range of 1400 to 1440 has been met (1419 thu far) by April/May has forecast. Might be a little more left in this move allowing a hit of the 1440 pivot area.
SP-500 Weekly Chart (3-30-12):
2-27-12: Everything is right on schedule as predicted several months ago. The SP-500 should hit 1400 to 1440 by April/May 2012 to end the P1-C3 wave.
SP-500 Weekly Chart (2-27-12):
1-18-12: Updated SP-500 Daily and Weekly Charts. The SP-500 forecast from early to mid-October 2011 is right on track. Wave minor 3 of major -P1-C3 is finishing up in the 1319 to 1344 area and I’m expecting minor 5 of major -P1-C3 to reach the IHS target of 1376 in mid-to-late February 2012. Major -P1-C3 should top in the 1400-1440 area by Apr-May 2012.
SP-500 Daily Chart (1-18-12):
SP-500 Weekly Chart (1-18-12):
12-1-11: Updated SP-500 Daily and Weekly Charts. I’m looking for a market rally to 1400/1440 into the later winter to early spring 2012, and then a sizable pull-back to 1200/1250 into the fall of 2012. The SP-500 price should stay contained in the large white up channel of the secular bull market (ie. Super Cycle V) that began in March 2009.
SP-500 Daily Chart (12-1-11):
SP-500 Weekly Chart (12-1-11):
11-25-11: Updated Daily Chart. Major  of P1-C3 has retraced to the 62% fib level of 1158. This looks like the likely end of major , however there are deeper fib retraces at 1122 (78.6%) and 1100 (88.6%) that will maintain the bull channel. Looking for major  to reach the 1372 pivot area and P1 to reach 1400/1440.
SP-500 Daily Chart (11-25-11):
11-4-11: Updated Daily and Weekly Charts. On Friday Oct 28th, the primary count became that the Cycle 2 of Super Cycle V low was in place at 1075 on Oct 5th, 2011. Primary 1 of Cycle 3 began from 1075 and is headed for 1400/1440 by Feb-Apr 2012.
SP-500 Daily Chart (11-4-11):
SP-500 Weekly Chart (11-4-11):
10-10-11: Updated Daily Chart showing the Primary A-B-C (PA-PB-PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) of Super Cycle V (SCV) targets.
8-19-11: Updated Weekly Chart showing the Primary A-B-C (PA-PB-PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) of Super Cycle V(SCV) targets.
SP-500 Weekly Chart (8-19-11):
8-4-11: Posted by pugsma on August 4, 2011 5:00 pm EST: Cycle 2 of Super Cycle V has only just begun and it’s off to a very ugly beginning say the least. We lost the P1-C1-SCV high of 1220 today and closed at 1200. The March 2009 to May 2011 Cyclical Bull Market is officially over. Cycle 2 of Super Cycle V is underway with a target range of 1019 (50% retrace of Cycle 1) to 822 (78% retrace of Cycle 1). I’m looking for Primary A (PA) of Cycle 2 to reach the 1105 to 1145 target region this fall.
SP-500 Daily Chart (8-4-11):
8-2-11: Posted by pugsma on August 2, 2011 5:45 pm EST: Historical Day as we have to say good-bye to the Primary count bull market. Primary count becomes the alternate (red) count. And since we have found the top bull market of Primary 5 of Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V at 1371 on May 2nd, 2011 the primary count will now be done using red labels signally the market is now a bear market and is headed lower in Cycle 2 of Super Cycle V. Targets for Cycle 2 are between 820 and 1020 over the next year or two. The alternate count will be done in blue labels per usual.
SP-500 Daily Chart (8-2-11):
7-27-11: Posted by pugsma on July 27, 2011 5:10 pm EST: Today is a historic day for PUG SMA, LLC. For the first time since the blog began in late Oct 2009, we must seriously consider the possibility the end of this 2+ year bull run is over and Primary Wave 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V ended on May 2nd, 2011 at 1371 on the SP-500. I have added this count in red as my new 2nd alternate count. Not be confused with the red count shown briefly today, that has become my 1st alternate (blue) count for the Ending Diagonal (ED) to complete P5 near the 1272/1386 pivots in late Aug to early Sept. The primary count (white) remains that P5 is headed to 1440/1445 by Oct-Nov in a normal 5-wave impulse off the 1258 P4 low.
SP-500 4-hr chart (7-27-11):
SP-500 Daily chart (7-27-11):
7-26-11: Updated 4-hour, Daily and Weekly Charts. On the 4-hour you can see that have included two scenarios on how Primary Wave 5 (P5) will end:
- The primary count (white): This is normal 5-wave impulse for P5 that will reach the large IHS target area of 1454 or near the 1440 pivot in mid-Oct to Nov 2011.
- The alternate count (blue): This is a 5-wave Ending Diagonal (ED) count for P5 that will terminate near the 1372/1386 pivots in mid-August to early Sept 2011.
SP-500 4-hr Chart (7-26-11):
SP-500 Daily Chart (7-26-11):
SP-500 Weekly Chart (7-26-11):
6-21-11: Update on the Daily Chart projection for Primary Wave 5 (P5), assuming 1258 holds as the Primary Wave 4 (P4) low of Cycle Degree Wave 1 (C1) of Super Cycle Degree Wave V (SC-V).
Projections for P5 in price and time:
- P1: 667 to 1220 (553 points) over about 13 months.
- P2: Low at 1011 (Drop from 1220 to 1011)
- P3: 1011 to 1344 (333 points). Note: P2 + 0.62*P1=> 1354 and t(P3)=0.62*t(P1) => 8 months
- P4 : Low at 1258 (Drop from 1371 to 1258)
- P5: P4 + 0.62*P3 => 1464 and t(P5)=.62*t(P3) => 5 months (or mid-Nov 2011).
SP-500 Daily Chart (12:19 am):
6-10-12: Updated Daily and Weekly Charts.
SP-500 Daily Chart (6-10-11):
SP-500 Weekly Chart (6-10-11):
5-6-11: Updated SP-500 4-hr and Daily Charts.
SP-500 4-hr Chart (5-6-11):
SP-500 Daily Chart (5-6-11):
5-3-11: Here is the updated SP-500 Daily and Weekly Charts showing my longer term count dating back to the Super Cycle III top in 2000 at 1553 and projectiong out to 2014. Cycle 1 of Super Cycle V should top at 1440 to 1485 in early 2012. Then Cycle 2 of Super Cycle V should retrace about 50% to the 1000 to 1075 area.
SP-500 Daily Chart (5-3-11):
SP-500 Weekly Chart (5-3-11):
4-29-11: This Primary 3 (P3) wave is breaking down rather nicely per typicall Elliott Wave measurement guidelines:
I believe the correct labeling for Primary 3 is this:
Major 1: 1011 to 1229 (118 points).
Major 2: 1229 to 1040 (89 points, 64% correction of wave 1, very typical of a wave 2)
Major 3: 1040 to 1344 (304 points, 2.58 times Major 1, very typical of a wave 3)
Major 4: 1344 to 1249 (95 points, 31% correction of wave 3, very typical of a wave 4)
Major 5: 1249 to ??? (my target is 1429, 180 points, 1.52 times wave 1, very typical of wave 5).
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD, 4-29-11):
4-19-11: I believe the minor 2 of major -P3 bottom is now in place at 1294.70, which was the 50% retrace of minor 1 or -P3. After the close, I have changed the count by one degree lower from minute (1) at 1309.87 to a minuette i complete at 1309.87. The 38% retrace to 1303.97 this morning was minuette ii and now minuette iii is underway with a target of 1328, where iii=1.62*i. The minute (1) of minor 3 target is the 1340/1344 gap area by mid-next week. Ultimately, I’m looking for minor 3 to reach the 1380-1400 area by mid-May and minor 5 of major -P3 to reach the large IHS target of 1429 by mid-June.
SP-500 4-hr Chart (EOD, 4-19-11):
4-8-11: In reviewing the charts for all time frames after the close today, I believe the best primary count (white labels) is that minor 4 of major  of Primary 3 (i.e. 4--P3) ended today at 1322.94. The minor 3 peak was at 1339.38 on April 6th, where minor 3 = 1.62* minor 1. The minor 4 pull-back played-out as an expanded flat down to 1322.94, where (c)=1.62*(a) at 1322. The “gap of recognition” at 1319/1323 for wave iii-(3)-3 should remain open for this primary count to be correct, so the pull-back should be over today or there could be a double bottom at 1323 on Monday. I’m expecting a 40 point move up to the 1363 pivot for minor 5--P3 over the next few weeks to a month. There is confluence of targets near the 1363 pivot. First minor 5 = minor 1 at 1363. And major = at 1367. This should conclude Primary Wave 3 (P3) in late April to mid-May. And I’m expecting a 90 to 110 point (-8%) pull-back to the 1257 pivot for Primary Wave 4 (P4) going into the summer months.
There is a reasonable high probability alternate count (blue labels) that could play out if the market drops below 1322.94 next week and closes the 1319/1323 gap of recognition. This count would have 1339.38 as the top of minor 1--P3 and the on-going pull-back as minor 2--P3. Targets for minor 2 range from 1319 (23% retrace of minor 1) top 1305 (38% retrace of minor 1). There is pivot support at both of these retrace locations. The very interesting thing about this alternate count is that is set-ups a large inverse head and shoulders (IHS) or cup and handle pattern (CHP) that measures 90 points (i.e. 1339-1249) and projects to 1429 (i.e. 1339 + 90) to complete minor 5--P3. This would mean that Primary Wave 3 (P3) would end near the 1440 pivot in late May to mid-June. I really like this count and we should keep and open mind to it if the current rally of the 1249 low extends beyond the 1363 pivot.
SP-500 4-hr chart (4-8-11):
SP-500 Daily chart (4-8-11):
3-24-11: Updated 4-hour and Daily charts.
SP-500 4-hour chart (3-24-11):
SP-500 Daily chart (3-24-11):
3-2-11: Here is a look at the Major degree wave trend-lines of Pimary 3 (P3) on the 4-hour chart.
SP-500 4-hour chart (3-2-11):
SP-500 daily chart (3-2-11):
2-4-11: Today we continued to ride the bull to a new recovery high on the SP-500 at 1311.00 . Dr Copper also broke out to a new high of $4.61 and the Nasdaq set a new high at 2769.70. This leads me to the conclusion that the 1315 pivot resistance on the SP-500 is likely to be exceeded during this impressive wave 3--P3 move higher and the next logical target is the 1363 pivot.
The primary count is that wave iii-(5) of 3--P3 is underway with a target of 1348, where iii=1.62*i. And wave v-(5) should reach the 1363 pivot area by mid to late February. I’m looking for a “gap and go” above the 1315 pivot resistance on Monday for wave 3-iii with a target of 1325 on the first burst higher. The slight variant (blue labels) to this count is that wave ii-(5) could play out as a flat or expanded flat and test 1289/1295 (i.e. 1291 pivot area) one more time early next week before wave iii-(5) moves aggressively higher gets underway.
FYI, looking at the Daily chart below the new Primary Wave 3 (P3) Targets are as follows:
-P3: 1363 pivot by mid-to-late February
-P3: 1315 pivot by mid-March
-P3: 1440 pivot by mid-to-late May
SP-500 Daily Chart (2-4-11):
Dec 30th, 2010: Update of the Daily Chart with Secular Bull Model P3 and P5 targets for the end of 2011 and end of 2012. Also, show in red labels is the alternate neutral model for the Super Cycle Wave IV to play-out in a final triangle over 2011-2012. I favor the bull model 10:1 over the more bearish neutral model at this time.
SP-500 Daily Chart (12-30-10):
Dec 17th, 2010: I discussed the market neutral model (cyclical bull, cyclical bear), last weekend that will rise up to about 1291 to 1315 in Cycle Degree X this spring, then falls to 870 to 956 over the next year or two to form a triangle into 2014, shown in red on this daily chart below. And everyone is familiar with my secular bull model off the 667 low of March 2009. But what if I’m wrong about a major -P3 correction coming and major -P3 was already put in at 1040, see the blue labels on the daily chart below. And the run to 1227 in Nov 2010 was minor degree wave 1--P3, followed by a drop to 1173 in early Dec 2010 for minor degree wave 2--P3. This would mean minor degree wave 3--P3 has already began from 1173 and there will be no significant pull-back in the SP-500 until a level of about 1476 is reached late in 2011. Just something very bullish to consider. And it fits with the very bullish 3rd year of the 4 year Presidential Cycle. It would also mean that we are looking for a minute (1) of 3--P3 top here around 1245/1257 and the next correction down that I’ve been anticipating will be minute (2) of 3--P3 towards 1207/1219 and should be bought aggressively, as there won’t be a cheaper price on the SP-500 until the SP-500 reaches 1800 to 2000 for P5 sometime in year 2014. Go Bulls!
SP-500 Daily Chart (EOD, 12-17-10):
Dec 11th, 2010: For 2011 I will be rolling out my SP-500 Neutral Model as a valid alternate to my SP-500 Bull Model that I have shown on this blog for over 1 year. The significant difference with the Neutral Model is that it implies that the rally from March 2009 to present is only a cyclical bull rally within an ongoing secular bear market that began in May of 2000 and that the secular bear will continue to at least 2014. The Bull Model as the Super Cycle wave IV low put in at 677 in March 2009 as the end of a large expanded flat off the May 2000 Super Cycle III peak. And thus for the Bull Model the SP-500 is currently in Cycle degree wave I of Super Cycle wave V. Primary waves P1 and P2 of Cycle I are in place and the SP-500 is currently in Primary wave P3 headed toward a new high above 1576 by late 2012. The Neutral Model has the cyclical bull off the March 2009 low of 667 as a Cycle degree X-wave of a double corrective expanded flat followed by a contracting triangle (see the weekly and monthly charts below).
The Cycle degree C-X wave should have 3 Primary waves (i.e P-A, P-B and P-C). So far the SP-500 has traced out the 5-waves of P-A between 667 and 1220 (Mar 09 to Apr 10) and 3-waves of P-B between 1220 and 1011 (Apr 10 to July 10). Since the July 2010 low of 1011, the SP-500 has been putting in the 5-waves of P-C. So far we wave 3-waves to 1227. It’s possible the correction to 1173 that completed in late Nov 2010 was wave 4 and a wave 5 up to a target of 1291 to 1315 is underway that will end in late January. However, there is reason to believe (i.e. current over-bought conditions) wave 4 may trace out an expanded flat back down to the 1150/1173 area in Feb 2010 before wave 5 to 1291/1315 completes P-C of C-X in Apr-May 2011. In either case my target for the completion of P-C of C-X is between 1291 (W5=W1) and the 1315 pivot.
What happens after Cycle degree C-X completes in Apr-May 2011 is going to be disturbing to the bulls in the audience. From the peak of C-X, I would then expect a Cycle degree contracting triangle to form over the May 2011 to July 2014 time frame. The first Primary wave P-A of the triangle could drop to test support in the 956 area by mid 2012. From there the SP-500 bounce between pivot support at 1011 and 1257 over the rest of 2012 and 2013 before finish up super cycle wave IV at around 1105 in mid-to-late 2014.
Now a couple of comments about this SP-500 Mark Neutral Model. First the top of Cycle degree wave C-X is very near the 1240 area. There is not much more upside left in the market for the next 4 years. As I stated, the SP-500 could just continue climbing up to 1291 in wave 5 of P-C, assuming the wave 4 low of 1173 was put in late Nov 2010. Or as I believe we could see a re-test of 1173 or even 1150 in a wave 4 flat before running up to 1291 to 1315 in Apr-May 2011. In either case, when the market reaches this area around 1291 to 1315 is when we will have to decide which model is correct (i.e. the Bull Model or Neutral Model). The Bull Model should power on through this area as Primary P3 should be strong and continue up to at least 1576 and likely 1650 by Dec 2012. If the market falls hard from the 1291/1315 area, then the SP-500 Neutral Model is in play. Also, it’s not necessary for Primary wave P-A of the Cycle degree contracting triangle to fall all the way down to 956 or below. Primary P-A wave could find support at 1105 or 1040 and P-B back up could begin. We’ll focus on that once we know the Neutral Model is in play.
The point of showing the Neutral Model is that we need to prepared to accept the fact that the social-economic macro environment of the USA may not be ready for a Cycle degree wave V move higher until after 2014. In which case the SP-500 could languish between 1315 and 956 for another 3 to 4 years. What I don’t believe in is any type of P3 of Cycle degree wave C of Super Cycle degree IV drop below SP-500 667 in the coming years (i.e. the EWI Bear Model). I don’t see the world economy getting to that point. So I believe this Neutral Model is a “worst case” scenario. And the depth of the drop for Primary wave P-A of the contracting triangle will be set by just how bad things get. Worst case I see a drop to somewhere between 870 and 956 for the wave P-A and more likely 956 to 1040.
SP-500 Neutral Model Weekly Chart (12-11-10):
SP-500 Neutral Model Monthly Chart (12-11-10):
Nov 5th, 2010: People often ask where do I get my long-term horizontal pivots from. I get them off the weekly and monthly charts. Also, these two charts represent my long-term view on this multi-year secular bull market that began in March of 2009 and should last over a decade. March of 2009 was a decade low at 667. It was the time to fully invest in the SP-500 and forget about it for the next decade through 2019-2020. If you didn’t get 100% back in the market in March 2009. You should have got 100% back in the market in July 2010, when I correctly called the P2 bottom at 1011. Now your next best chance to get back 100% in the market will be the major degree wave -P2 low this winter near the 1136 pivot support.
Notice on the weekly chart the SP-500 has cleared the last major hurdle of the falling 200-week SMA at 1193. There is little resistance to stop the SP-500 from making a major degree wave -P3 high between the 1257 to 1315 pivot resistance sometime in late 2010 or early 2011.
On the monthly chart, notice the SP-500 is now above the falling 50-month SMA of 1205. And it’s supported by the rising 20-month SMA that is at 1068 today, Nov 5th, 2010.
SP-500 Weekly Chart (EOD):
SP-500 Monthly Chart (EOD, Nov 5th, 2010):
Oct 5th, 2010: OK Bulls and Bears, we are at a very critical juncture here. Taking a look at the SP-500 Weekly Chart with linear price scaling, you can see that the current price (1160) is right at the down sloping trend-line (red) that connects the Oct 2007 high (1575) with the Apr 2010 high (1220). Price has also been bouncing off the up sloping trend-line (black) from the March 2009 low of 667. Notice the “Diamond” Pattern that has formed over the past year from Oct 2009 to Oct 2010. This type of Diamond Pattern in this position can form at “Half-Staff” or be a “Topping” pattern. If its at half-staff, then we can expect another move out of diamond pattern of equal magnitude to the incoming move. The incoming move was 1220-667 = 553. So we can expect a measured move from 1011 + 553 = 1564, which takes the SP-500 back to it’s Oct 2007 high.
For the my primary count to be correct, the SP-500 needs to break through this down sloping (red) trend-line and move towards a new high above 1220 by end of 2010 in major degree wave -P3. From there, the SP-500 will be free to melt up in 5-waves of major degree within Primary Wave 3 (P3) to the old October 2007 high of 1575 over the next two years (see the green path on the weekly chart).
If however, the SP-500 fails to push through the down sloping (red) trend-line in the next few weeks to a month. Then there is a good possibility that Primary Wave 2 (P2) will need to make a deeper correction below 1011. In this case the move from 1220 to 1011 was only major degree [A]-P2 and the subsequent move from 1011 to 1163 was wave [B]-P2. The next move will be a [C]-P2 drop to 954 (if [C]=[A]=209 points) over the next 2 to 3 months. This 954 level would be a 50% retrace of P1 in price and time. I’m calling this my alternate bearish view, in case the SP-500 fails to move higher than this 1163 to 1177 area in the next few weeks to month. If the SP-500 falls to this 954 level for my alternate P2 low, then the P3 move to old high of 1575 will just be delayed by about 3 to 6 months in time (see the red path on the weekly chart).
SP-500 Weekly Chart (10-5-10):
Sept 16th, 2010: I updated the SP-500 Daily, Weekly and Monthly charts this morning. On the daily chart we have a bull cross of the 13-day EMA back above the 34-day EMA on Sept 10th, 2010. Also, you can see that the SP-500 is challenging the large inverse head and shoulders neckline at 1131. A decisive break above 1131, and the SP-500 should run up to 1251 by the end of 2010 to complete major wave -P3. On the weekly chart the SP-500 is looking to close above the 20-week SMA of 1091 and 50-week SMA of 1107. This would be bullish, especially with both of these SMA’s sloping upward to act as support. On the monthly chart you can see how the July 1st, 2010 Primary Wave 2 (P2) low of 1011 was supported by the 20-month SMA that is now at 1024 and sloping upward. Again another bullish sign.
SP-500 Daily Chart (9-16-10):
SP-500 Weekly Chart (9-16-10):
SP-500 Monthly Chart (9-16-10):
Aug 21st, 2010: I updated my longer term view weekly SP-500 chart this morning. It’s very difficult to determine were the P1, P2, P3, P4 and P5 secular bull market channel lines should be drawn at this point. We are still in the early stages of P3 by the primary count or later stages of P2 by the alternate count. However, if I use the 2002 to 2007 cyclical bull market channel line slope as a guide, then below is the projection I get on the weekly chart. What I find interesting is that the currently labeled P2 low of 1011 (38% retrace of P1) falls at the mid-channel line. And if the we were to get a market crash this fall, the lower channel line comes in right at 870 (62% retrace of P1) by Dec 2010. So if the large head and shoulders and Hindenberg Omens play-out there is a reasonable target near 870 to consider the alternate for P2.
Also, notice all of the support and resistance in the 1050 and 1150 area going back to 2001. This why the market always is very choppy in this area. It’s near the mean value (balance point 1105) between bull and bear. The market is comfortable in this area and thus likes to trade there.
Another interesting possibility to consider is what if the correction since the April high of 1220 is a consolidation contracting triangle for a [B] wave of a cyclical bull market. In this alternate count (shown in blue on the daily and weekly charts below) the 5-wave run up from 666 in March 2009 to 1220 April 2010 would be a Major Degree [A] wave. The Major Degree [B] triangle would be working on Minor Degree wave C down towards 1041 right now and would have legs D and E to complete this fall. Legs C-D-E would remain in the consolidation triangle shown on the daily chart below (light blue lower and purple upper boundaries) . The SP-500 could stay range bound between the key support at 1040 and resistance at 1105 all the way through October into the mid-term elections. The wave Major Degree wave [C] would break upward in Nov-Dec. If wave [C]=[A], then we get 1565 by sometime in late 2012 to early 2013. Clearly, we are all watching this same area between 1040 and 1105 to see which way things break this fall. The triangle trend lines along with the opposing HS vs IHS pattern necklines hold the key for the next major more in the markets.
This cyclical bull market from 2009 to 2012 would be a Primary Degree Wave D of a larger expanding triangle for Cycle Degree wave IV (secular bear market) that began with the 2000 recession. Cycle Degree wave IV would then have a very large and nasty Primary Degree wave E down from 1565 to slightly below 666 by 2015 to 2017 to end the Cycle Degree wave IV. This longer Cycle Degree Wave IV count has some merit and it’s worth keeping an eye on it. You can see how it lays out on the updated Weekly Chart as well.
SP-500 Daily Chart (8-21-10):
SP-500 Week Chart (8-21-10):
Here is an updated SP-500 weekly chart for July 7th, 2010:
Below is a weekly chart and here are my latest post (5-29-10) on the SP-500 Longer Term View.
Original blog post with the longer term SP-500 bullish model (Oct 30, 2009):