Technical Analysis Blog | PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

PUG Stock Market Analysis is here to help with SP500 technical analysis, stock analysis and more. Read our technical analysis blog to learn more.

Sample Blog Posts

July 28th, 2016: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on July 28, 2016

2:15 pm EST:  The SP-500 ends the month of July well above its 13-month EMA (2059) and 20-month SMA (2052).   This is bullish for the IT to LT trend.

Wave minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 competed at 2169, where minor 3=0.78*minor 1.  Wave minor 4 is completing a 23%/38% Fibonacci retrace to 2153/2137 before minor 5 of major [3] heads to the 2235 target area.  Wave minor 4 appears to taking the form of an ascending triangle that must hold above 1956 or if it breaks below 2156 then it’s a zig-zag headed for the 2135 pivot support.   The first IT (Intermediate-Term) P5-C1 wave target completion area is at 2246, where P5=0.62*P1.  However there is a much higher target at P5=P1 = 2514.  In this more bullish LT (Long-Term) scenario, both minor 3 of major [3] and major [3] itself would sub-divide and extended much higher.

Just remember the classic Technical Analysis Intermediate-term (IT) measured move break out above 2121, is 2121 + (2121-1992) = 2250, which is right at the first major [5]-P1-C5 target of 2242 and the Long-term (LT) measured move break out above 2135, is 2135 + (2135-1810) = 2460, which is right below P5=P1 = 2514 target.

Have a great weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart:

PUG SP-500 15-min 7-28-16

SP-500 60-min chart:

PUG SP-500 60-min 7-28-16

SP-500 4-hr chart:

PUG SP-500 4-hr 7-28-16

SP-500 daily chart:

PUG SP-500 daily 7-28-16

SP-500 weekly chart:

PUG SP-500 weekly 7-28-16

SP-500 monthly chart:

PUG SP-500 monthly 7-28-16

January 30th, 2013: EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 30, 2013

1-31-13 2:45 pm:  I wanted to show a chart of the McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) vs the SP-500 going back to Nov 2011.  Notice that during the major [3] rally for Primary 1 of Cycle 3 (i.e. [3]-P1-C3) from Nov 2011 to April 2012, the $NYMO began to break-down below zero and continue to make lower, lows repeatedly breaking the lower Bollinger Band (BB) from about the mid-point of the rally in early February 2012.   This is precisely what is transpiring right now with the $NYMO.  So while some may worry about the $NYMO dropping now as the SP-500 continues to climb higher as being unusual, it fact it has happened within the last year as exact same point in a major [3] bull rally.

PUG $NYMO vs SP-500 Daily 1-31-13

6:20 pm EST:  Another new recovery high was made to at 1510.

The primary count is that wave i-(5) of minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 completed today at 1510.  The pull-back to 1500 was wave ii-(5), and now I’m looking for a wave iii-(5) move up to 1519, where iii=1.62*i.   Ultimately, wave v-(5) of minor 3 should end in the 1524 pivot range of 1517 to 1531.  There is a fib target at 1531, where minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1.  Note, that wave ii-(5) must hold the 1498.09 level for this primary count to remain valid.   A move below 1498.09 means that the alternate (blue) count is underway.

The alternate (blue) count short-term variant to the primary count is that wave (5) of minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 completed today at 1510.  The minimum triangle target was 1513, so this move from 1510 effectively satisfies that requirement.   This alternate (blue) count means that the minor 4 wave is underway with typical targets of 1484 (23% retrace of minor 3) to 1467 (38%) retrace.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 1-30-13

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 1-30-13

January 18th, 2012: Update 1 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on January 18, 2012

12:50 pm EST:  Here is the updated SP-500 15-min chart.   The primary count continues to be right on track with this market.  We have a first target for wave v-(5) of minor 3 at 1307, where v=1.62*i, but here is also a target at 1319, where (5)=(1).   There is pivot resistance at 1315.    The blue alternate count variant was eliminated with the push above 1303.00.  You can see the minor 4 of major [3]-P1-C3 pull-back targets listed on the 15-min chart once we complete the minor 3 wave up.

SP-500 15-min chart (12:45 pm):

January 18th, 2012: Update 2 – Afternoon/EOD

Posted by pugsma on January 18, 2012

4:05 pm EST:  Check out this SP-500 Weekly Candles Chart with the MCAD shown below the price.  When the weekly MACD cross above zero and is pointing higher at a 45 deg angle, you should be looking to “buy the dips” as the SP-500 upward price movement has good momentum that could last 2 to 3 more months.  Which in this case, would carry the SP-500 price to my 1400 to 1440 price target for the conclusion of P1-C3.

SP-500 Weekly Candles (EOD):

3:00 pm EST:  Is there anything more exciting and rewarding than a bull market minor 3 of major [3] wave?  Nope, not to me as an Elliott Wave Technician who over 2 years ago called the March 2009 generational bottom at SP-500 667 the end of Super Cycle Degree IV.   :-)

Primary count is that wave v-(5) of minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 is finishing up near the v=1.62*i target of 1307 or the (5)=(1) target of 1319.   For this area there should be a significant correction in time, if not price for minor 4.   The minor 4 targets are in the 1282/1292 (23% retrace of minor 3) or 1267/1275 (38% retrace) area depending of minor ends at 1307 or 1319.  Minor 4 should remain above the minor 1 high of 1267 to remain valid.

The new alternate (blue) count variant to the primary count above is that wave i-(5) of minor 3 is just ending here near 1307.  There should be about a 50% retrace to the 1291 pivot area for wave ii-(5) before wave iii-(5) heads for 1340.   The ultimate target for wave v-(5) of minor is 1344, where (5)=1.62*(1).   There is also a minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1 target at 1336.

SP-500 5-min chart (3:30 pm):

SP-500 15-min chart (2:50 pm):

SP-500 60-min chart (3:09 pm):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):

%d bloggers like this: