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Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

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July 28th, 2016: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on July 28, 2016

2:15 pm EST:  The SP-500 ends the month of July well above its 13-month EMA (2059) and 20-month SMA (2052).   This is bullish for the IT to LT trend.

Wave minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 competed at 2169, where minor 3=0.78*minor 1.  Wave minor 4 is completing a 23%/38% Fibonacci retrace to 2153/2137 before minor 5 of major [3] heads to the 2235 target area.  Wave minor 4 appears to taking the form of an ascending triangle that must hold above 1956 or if it breaks below 2156 then it’s a zig-zag headed for the 2135 pivot support.   The first IT (Intermediate-Term) P5-C1 wave target completion area is at 2246, where P5=0.62*P1.  However there is a much higher target at P5=P1 = 2514.  In this more bullish LT (Long-Term) scenario, both minor 3 of major [3] and major [3] itself would sub-divide and extended much higher.

Just remember the classic Technical Analysis Intermediate-term (IT) measured move break out above 2121, is 2121 + (2121-1992) = 2250, which is right at the first major [5]-P1-C5 target of 2242 and the Long-term (LT) measured move break out above 2135, is 2135 + (2135-1810) = 2460, which is right below P5=P1 = 2514 target.

Have a great weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart:

PUG SP-500 15-min 7-28-16

SP-500 60-min chart:

PUG SP-500 60-min 7-28-16

SP-500 4-hr chart:

PUG SP-500 4-hr 7-28-16

SP-500 daily chart:

PUG SP-500 daily 7-28-16

SP-500 weekly chart:

PUG SP-500 weekly 7-28-16

SP-500 monthly chart:

PUG SP-500 monthly 7-28-16

January 30th, 2013: EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 30, 2013

1-31-13 2:45 pm:  I wanted to show a chart of the McClellan Oscillator ($NYMO) vs the SP-500 going back to Nov 2011.  Notice that during the major [3] rally for Primary 1 of Cycle 3 (i.e. [3]-P1-C3) from Nov 2011 to April 2012, the $NYMO began to break-down below zero and continue to make lower, lows repeatedly breaking the lower Bollinger Band (BB) from about the mid-point of the rally in early February 2012.   This is precisely what is transpiring right now with the $NYMO.  So while some may worry about the $NYMO dropping now as the SP-500 continues to climb higher as being unusual, it fact it has happened within the last year as exact same point in a major [3] bull rally.

PUG $NYMO vs SP-500 Daily 1-31-13

6:20 pm EST:  Another new recovery high was made to at 1510.

The primary count is that wave i-(5) of minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 completed today at 1510.  The pull-back to 1500 was wave ii-(5), and now I’m looking for a wave iii-(5) move up to 1519, where iii=1.62*i.   Ultimately, wave v-(5) of minor 3 should end in the 1524 pivot range of 1517 to 1531.  There is a fib target at 1531, where minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1.  Note, that wave ii-(5) must hold the 1498.09 level for this primary count to remain valid.   A move below 1498.09 means that the alternate (blue) count is underway.

The alternate (blue) count short-term variant to the primary count is that wave (5) of minor 3 of major [3]-P3-C3 completed today at 1510.  The minimum triangle target was 1513, so this move from 1510 effectively satisfies that requirement.   This alternate (blue) count means that the minor 4 wave is underway with typical targets of 1484 (23% retrace of minor 3) to 1467 (38%) retrace.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 1-30-13

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 1-30-13

January 18th, 2012: Update 1 – Morning

Posted by pugsma on January 18, 2012

12:50 pm EST:  Here is the updated SP-500 15-min chart.   The primary count continues to be right on track with this market.  We have a first target for wave v-(5) of minor 3 at 1307, where v=1.62*i, but here is also a target at 1319, where (5)=(1).   There is pivot resistance at 1315.    The blue alternate count variant was eliminated with the push above 1303.00.  You can see the minor 4 of major [3]-P1-C3 pull-back targets listed on the 15-min chart once we complete the minor 3 wave up.

SP-500 15-min chart (12:45 pm):

January 18th, 2012: Update 2 – Afternoon/EOD

Posted by pugsma on January 18, 2012

4:05 pm EST:  Check out this SP-500 Weekly Candles Chart with the MCAD shown below the price.  When the weekly MACD cross above zero and is pointing higher at a 45 deg angle, you should be looking to “buy the dips” as the SP-500 upward price movement has good momentum that could last 2 to 3 more months.  Which in this case, would carry the SP-500 price to my 1400 to 1440 price target for the conclusion of P1-C3.

SP-500 Weekly Candles (EOD):

3:00 pm EST:  Is there anything more exciting and rewarding than a bull market minor 3 of major [3] wave?  Nope, not to me as an Elliott Wave Technician who over 2 years ago called the March 2009 generational bottom at SP-500 667 the end of Super Cycle Degree IV.   :-)

Primary count is that wave v-(5) of minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 is finishing up near the v=1.62*i target of 1307 or the (5)=(1) target of 1319.   For this area there should be a significant correction in time, if not price for minor 4.   The minor 4 targets are in the 1282/1292 (23% retrace of minor 3) or 1267/1275 (38% retrace) area depending of minor ends at 1307 or 1319.  Minor 4 should remain above the minor 1 high of 1267 to remain valid.

The new alternate (blue) count variant to the primary count above is that wave i-(5) of minor 3 is just ending here near 1307.  There should be about a 50% retrace to the 1291 pivot area for wave ii-(5) before wave iii-(5) heads for 1340.   The ultimate target for wave v-(5) of minor is 1344, where (5)=1.62*(1).   There is also a minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1 target at 1336.

SP-500 5-min chart (3:30 pm):

SP-500 15-min chart (2:50 pm):

SP-500 60-min chart (3:09 pm):

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

SP-500 Daily chart (EOD):

 
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