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This stock market technical analysis blog has been live since October 2009 (for 16 years), providing unbiased stock market technical analysis of the SP-500, Gold and more that ignores the white noise of news and politics. During that time there have been over 6800 blog posts made with over 15,000 charts on the markets and over 17 million page views.
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The Premium Service uses Elliott Wave Theory, channel analysis, Fibonacci extension/retracement, momentum oscillators and chart pattern recognition to help forecast market directional moves in the SP-500, other indexes, various stocks and commodities. Based on PUG’s own charts, trend lines and price movement projections, PUG will provide technical analysis updates.
Focused on the SP-500 forecast using charting and technical analysis.
Additional price forecast for various indexes and commodities (examples: QQQ: Nasdaq-100, IWM: Russell-2000, GLD: Gold) using charting and technical analysis. Which additional charts are chosen is entirely up to PUG’s discretion based on significant price movement changes of importance.
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Daily market commentary and charts (15-min, 60-min, daily and weekly time frames) with price movement projection provided.
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Seasonality (July 31st):“If you think July was bad, rest of Q3 might just give you a stroke. When S&P 500 closed negative in both June and July, August was a coin flip. $SPX in September was brutal, negative in 11 of 13 years. Rest of quarter was down 8 of 13 with a median drawdown of 13%”.https://x.com/Bluekurtic/status/2083240020249596284?s=20
Sept-Dec Performance After a +10% to +20% YTD End of August (Aug 31st):Bad news for bears. The S&P 500 is set to close August with double digit YTD gain. There were only 20 years where $SPX gained 10 to 20% YTD by end of August. Only one case saw a 10%+ drawdown of 10.2%.” Average Sept-Dec Gain is +6.0% with a 90% historical probability.”https://x.com/Bluekurtic/status/2093393733412946240?s=20.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Dec 2nd, 2025:$SPX is up 5 straight days [thru 11/28/25], and its McClellan Oscillator cycled from -55 to +68 in just 1 week. Here’s what happened next to $SPX after similar historical rallies.” Average gains 1 year later is +17.3% in 12 of 12 cases (100%). Signal triggered at SP500 6849 on Nov 28th 2025, so that implies 8033 by Nov 28th, 2026. https://x.com/dailychartbook/status/1995802624076226764?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Jan 11th, 2026: “Market breadth is improving. 338 S&P 500 stocks are now above their 200 day moving average, for first time in 3+ months. After similar breadth recoveries, $SPX was higher 93% of the time 12M later. Only outlier occurred during COVID, only case where drawdowns also exceeded 20%.”SP500 has a 100% (15 of 15 cases)historical probability of being +14.1% higher that 6910 9 months later. That puts the SP500 target at 7884 by Oct 2026. https://x.com/Bluekurtic/status/2010471785913807349?s=20
Jan 30th, 2026:“S&P 500 up 1.4% in January. Rest of year up 87% of the time when January is higher. But when it up between 0-2%? Lower only once. Small clues 2026 should be an above average year for investors.” Average gain is +12% (from 6939 this implies 7772 by Dec 31st, 2026). https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/2017411919297073529?s=20
Feb 6th, 2026: “The Jan-24 to Feb-6 TOY (Turn Of the Year) Period on the SP500 ended being up from 6915 to 6932 (+0.25%). When the TOY is up between 0 and +2%, the rest of the year is up in 19 of 25 cases (76%) for an average gain of +10.7%” (implies a move from 6932 => 7673 by Dec 31st, 2026).https://x.com/WayneWhaley1136/status/2017738698352152932?s=20
May 31st, 2026:“The S&P 500 recently was up more than 19% in two months. You ready for this one? That has only happened seven other times and stocks were never lower 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or a year later.” Up an avg +6.4% over 1 month (7562 to 8046 End of June 2026) Up an avg +10.5% over 3 month (7562 to 8356 End of Aug 2026) Up an avg +14.6% over 6 months (7562 to 8666 End of Nov 2026) Up an avg +28.4% over 12 months (7562 to 9709 End of May 2027) https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/2063830902782701591?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
July 31st, 2026:“July tried, but finished down 0.1%. Prepare to hear a LOT about this from the bears, but down in June and July has been weak for the rest of the year historically.”Down an average -2.5% the rest of the year. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/2083283444692341081?s=20
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P3-C3-SCV wave up is underway with and initial target at 8746, where P3=2.0P1. The major [1]-P3 wave completed at 6147 on Feb 19th, 2025 and the major [2] wave is completed at 4835. The major [3] wave up is underway a target at 8499, where [3]=1.38[1]. Within the major [3], minor 1 completed at 7002 on Jan 28th, 2026 and minor 2 wave completed at 6317 on Mar 30th, 2026 and minor 3 completed at 7621 on June 2nd. The minor 4 wave played out as an ascending triangle that completed at 7314 on July 29th. The minor 5 wave up is underway. Wave (1) of minor 5 completed at 7816. The minute (2) wave reached 7611, retracing to the 38% of 7625. Wave (3) is underway with a target at 8304, where (3) = 1.38(1). Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 7611.
The alternate (blue) count is that minute (2) of minor 5 of major [3] is still on going towards the 50%/62% retrace at 7565 to 7504. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid above 7314.
6:25 pm EST: The SP500 opened flat from 7718, dropped all day to hit 7667 (day’s low) and closed at 7673. Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com Seasonality (July 31st): “If you think July was bad, rest of Q3 might just give you a stroke. When S&P 500 closed negative […]
7:00 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 7666 to 7686, rose the entire day to hit 7754 (day’s high) and closed at 7747. Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com Seasonality (July 31st): “If you think July was bad, rest of Q3 might just give you a stroke. When S&P […]
5:35 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 7631 to 7634, rose to hit 7681 (day’s high) and closed at 7666. Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com Seasonality (July 31st): “If you think July was bad, rest of Q3 might just give you a stroke. When S&P 500 closed negative […]
6:20 pm EST: The SP500 gapped down from 7711 to 7697, dropped to hit 7665 (day’s low) and closed at 7686. Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com Seasonality (July 31st): “If you think July was bad, rest of Q3 might just give you a stroke. When S&P 500 closed negative […]
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