PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog

5:55 pm EST: The SP500 gapped down from 7139 to 7135, dropped to 7119, rallied to 7145 (day’s high), dropped to 7108 (day’s low) and then rallied into the close at 7138.

Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term)  Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):

1. Dec 2nd, 2025: $SPX is up 5 straight days [thru 11/28/25], and its McClellan Oscillator cycled from -55 to +68 in just 1 week. Here’s what happened next to $SPX after similar historical rallies.”
   Average gains 1 year later is +17.3% in 12 of 12 cases (100%). Signal triggered at SP500 6849 on Nov 28th 2025, so that implies 8033 by Nov 28th, 2026. https://x.com/dailychartbook/status/1995802624076226764?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
2. Jan 11th, 2026: “Market breadth is improving. 338 S&P 500 stocks are now above their 200 day moving average, for first time in 3+ months. After similar breadth recoveries, $SPX was higher 93% of the time 12M later. Only outlier occurred during COVID, only case where drawdowns also exceeded 20%.” SP500 has a 100% (15 of 15 cases)historical probability of being +14.1% higher that 6910 9 months later. That puts the SP500 target at 7884 by Oct 2026.
   https://x.com/Bluekurtic/status/2010471785913807349?s=20
3. Jan 30th, 2026: “S&P 500 up 1.4% in January. Rest of year up 87% of the time when January is higher. But when it up between 0-2%? Lower only once. Small clues 2026 should be an above average year for investors.” Average gain is +12% (from 6939 this implies 7772 by Dec 31st, 2026). https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/2017411919297073529?s=20
4. Feb 6th, 2026: “The Jan-24 to Feb-6 TOY (Turn Of the Year) Period on the SP500 ended being up from 6915 to 6932 (+0.25%). When the TOY is up between 0 and +2%, the rest of the year is up in 19 of 25 cases (76%) for an average gain of +10.7%” (implies a move from 6932 => 7673 by Dec 31st, 2026). https://x.com/WayneWhaley1136/status/2017738698352152932?s=20
5. Feb 26th, 2026: “Active managers have reduced exposure. NAAIM Exposure Index fell below 80 to 74.9, its first break since May 2025. Then NAAIM dropped below 80 for the first time in 2+ months, 6–9M S&P 500 returns were always positive.” (+14.1% in 9 months implies a move from 6908 => 7883 by Nov 27th, 2026). https://x.com/bluekurtic/status/2027171827819119009?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw

Wave Count(s):

1. The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5-C3-SCV wave up is underway with the P5=1.23P1 target at 8086. The major [1]-P5 wave completed at 7002 on Jan 28th, 2026. The major [2] wave is complete at 6317. The major [3] wave up is underway that will break above the 7002 all-time high. The initial major [3] target is at 8007, where [3]=0.78[1]. The minor 1 of major [3] wave should target the 7343 area. Minute (1) of minor 1 reached 6610 and the minute (2) retraced to 6475, which was just above the 50% Fib at 6464. The minute (3) of minor 1 reached 7147. The minute (4) wave dropped to 7046. The minute (5) wave up is underway with targets at (5)=(1)=7343 to complete the minor 1 wave. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 7046.
2. The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P5 completed at 7178. The minor 2 wave is underway with a 23%/38% Fib retrace target area at 6980 to 6811. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid below 7178.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 daily chart:

QQQ 15-min chart:

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ daily chart:

IWM 15-min chart:

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM daily chart: