PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

Archive for the ‘DJIA-30’ Category

August 4th, 2015: SP-5000 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on August 4, 2015

4:40 pm EST:   The primary (white/green) count is that wave minor 3 of major [3]-PA-C2 is underway with minor 2 of major [3] complete at 2114.   The minor 3 of major [3] will head below 2000, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 at 2002 and major [3]=1.62*[1] at 1986.   Within minor 3, wave (1) should reach 2044, before a wave (2) 50% retrace to 2079 and then a wave (3) drop to 2009 (see the 15-min and 60-min chart for details).   Ultimately PA-C2 should reach at least 1954 (62% retrace of the P5-C1 Ending Diagonal) and maybe 1889 (78% retrace of the P5-C1 Ending Diagonal).  The primary count remains valid for minor 2 wave below 2133.

The alternate (blue) count is that the Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) Ending Diagonal (ED) is extending from the recent major [4]-P5-C1 low of 2044.   The final wave up for major [5]-P5 is underway and should unfold at a 3-wave, minor A-B-C.  Wave minor A reached the 2135 pivot (2133) and the minor B wave retraced 78% to 2063.  Minor C is now underway and should complete major [5]-P5-C1 near the P5 = 0.5*P1 target of 2172.  Within minor C, wave (1) reached 2114, wave (2) completed at the 50%/62% retrace of 2089/2083 and now wave (3) should make a new high above 2315 (see 15-min and 60-min chart for details).  Note: the ending diagonal maximum (i.e. wave [5] < [3] < [1]) for this primary wave count is at 2044 + (2135-1981) = 2198.  The alternate (blue) counts remain valid above the recent 2044 low.   It will take a break of the 2046 pivot area to confirm the Cycle 1 (C1) top is in place per the primary count.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 8-4-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 8-4-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 8-4-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 Daily Chart 8-4-15

SP-500 daily chart indicators:

PUG SP-500 Daily Chart with Indicators 8-4-15

DJIA-30 daily chart with indicators:

PUG DJIA-30 Daily Chart with Indicators 8-4-15

 

Posted in DJIA-30, SP-500 | Comments Off on August 4th, 2015: SP-5000 EOD Update

April 17th, 2015: DJIA 7-Year Cycle Chart

Posted by pugsma on April 17, 2015

3:00 pm EST:  A subscriber who uses Gann Technical Analysis sent me this DJIA chart earlier this week showing an interesting 7-year time cycle.

DJIA 7-year Cycle Chart (April 2015):

DJ-30 7-year cycle chart

Posted in DJIA-30 | Comments Off on April 17th, 2015: DJIA 7-Year Cycle Chart

September 16th, 2014: DJIA-30 Wave Count Update

Posted by pugsma on September 16, 2014

5:50 pm EST:   The DJIA-30 made a new all-time high today of 17,167 officially satisfying everything that is required of the Ending Diagonal (ED) wave count for major [5]-P3-C1. play.  However, there are still higher completion targets are M5=0.62*M1=17,493 and (c)=(a)=17,765.  The ED maximum is 18,145.

DJIA-30 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG DJIA-30 4-hr EOD 9-16-14

DJIA-30 daily chart (EOD):

PUG DJIA-30 daily EOD 9-16-14

Posted in DJIA-30 | Comments Off on September 16th, 2014: DJIA-30 Wave Count Update

August 27th, 2014: SP-500 and DJIA-30 Weekly Charts

Posted by pugsma on August 27, 2014

10:10 am EST:  At the weekly chart level both the SP-500 and DJIA-30 price charts with technical indicators of RSI(14), MACD(12.26.9) and Full STO show an extremely long time frame build-up of confirmed double negative divergence and potential  triple negative divergence dating back to May 2013.

This is consistence with a P3-C1 top occurring here and a significant (-10%) P4-C1 correction.

SP-500 Weekly Chart with Indicators:

PUG SP-500 weekly with indicators 8-27-14

DJIA-30 Weekly Chart with Indicators:

PUG DJIA-30 weekly with indicators 8-27-14

Posted in DJIA-30, SP-500 | Comments Off on August 27th, 2014: SP-500 and DJIA-30 Weekly Charts

August 26th, 2014: DJIA-30 Wave Count Update

Posted by pugsma on August 26, 2014

12:15 pm EST:   Here is the DJIA-30 wave count updated.  Possible ending diagonal for major [5]-P3-C1 that must not exceed 18,145 during the minor 5 of major [5] wave.

DJIA-30 4-hr chart:

PUG DJ-30 4-hr 8-26-14

DJIA-30- daily chart:

PUG DJ-30 Daily 8-26-14

DJIA weekly chart:

PUG DJ-30 Weekly 8-26-14

Posted in DJIA-30 | Comments Off on August 26th, 2014: DJIA-30 Wave Count Update

May 1st, 2014: DJIA-30 Wave Count Update

Posted by pugsma on April 30, 2014

Apr 30th, 12:05 pm EST:  Here is the updated DJIA-30 wave count.  The P3-C1 target is 16,810, where P3=P1 and the ED max is 17,306.

DJIA-30 4-hr chart (mid-day):

PUG DJIA-30 4-hr Chart MD 4-30-14

DJIA-30 daily chart (mid-day):

PUG DJIA-30 Daily Chart MD 4-30-14

DJIA-30 weekly chart (mid-day):

PUG DJIA-30 Weekly Chart MD 4-30-14

Posted in DJIA-30 | Comments Off on May 1st, 2014: DJIA-30 Wave Count Update

April 1st, 2014: DJIA Wave Count Update

Posted by pugsma on April 1, 2014

4:00 pm EST:  DJIA wave count looks to be headed towards the IHS target of 17,855 at minimum.

DJIA Daily chart (EOD):

PUG DJIA daily chart MD 4-1-14

 

Posted in DJIA-30 | Comments Off on April 1st, 2014: DJIA Wave Count Update

February 5th, 2014: SP-500 and DJIA-30 Daily and Weekly Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on February 5, 2014

11:25 am EST:  Here is quick update on the DJIA-30 wave count and how it lines up with the SP-500 counts.  Looking for major [4]-P3-C1 to end in the 15,000 area before major [5]-P3-C1 heads to a new high above 16,588 with a target around 18,000.  The alternate (blue) count is that major [A]-P4-C1 will end in the 15,000 area before major [B]-P4-C1 bounce to 15,800 and then major [C]-P4-C1 drop to the 14,200 area.

DJIA-30 daily chart (mid-day):

PUG DJIA-30 daily chart MD 2-5-14

DJIA-30 weekly chart (mid-day):

PUG DJIA-30 weekly chart MD 2-5-14

SP-500 daily chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 daily chart MD 2-5-14

SP-500 weekly chart (mid-day):

PUG SP-500 weekly chart MD 2-5-14

Posted in DJIA-30, SP-500 | Comments Off on February 5th, 2014: SP-500 and DJIA-30 Daily and Weekly Chart Update

January 24th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 24, 2014

6:00 pm EST:  As indicated in the comments section late this after, I have adjusted the primary wave count based on the following:

I’ve been examining the 4-hr chart in a little more detail this afternoon and I’m come to the conclusion that primary count needs further adjustment.  I now think this correction since 1849 on Dec 31st is a minor 4 wave of major [5]-P3-C1.

There are a couple of reasons for this: 1) This current correction has been going on longer in time and deeper in correction than the minor 4 wave labeled on the charts (i.e. 1814 to 1768).  2) The minor 2 correction from 1730 to 1646 in late Sept to early Oct was a sharp Zig-Zag and this correction looks like a flat, which satisfies the guideline of alternation between 4th and 2nd waves.

This change doesn’t matter a whole like to the primary count outlook that once this minor 4 wave bottoms there will be a minor 5 wave up to 1900+.   It does however mean that this minor 4 correction must now stay above 1730 and not 1768, which gives the current correction some more room to drop.

The primary count is that minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C1 has playing out as a 3-3-5 flat since the 1849 made on Dec 31st, 2013.   This rapid move down from 1849 to 1790 thus far is the (c) of minor 4 wave.  C waves like 3 wave are very scary rapid moves.  This (c) of minor 4 maybe complete at 1790, which is just below the (c)=1.62*(a) target of 1794 or it could have only complete wave iii-(c) of minor 4 in which case it will bounce to about 1803/1812 wave iv-(c) before completing in the 1786 to 1775 area for wave v-(c) of minor 5.   The typical wave 4 fib retrace of 38% is at 1772 and the double top (1849) target is 1780 on the break of 1815.   Once minor 4 completes, wave minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 will make a new high above 1849 with a first target at 1883, where minor 5=1.  This primary count for minor 4 remains valid above the minor 1 high of 1730.   A break below 1730 confirms the alternate (blue) count below.

The alternate (blue) count is that wave minor 1 of major [A]-P4-C1 is underway that is complete or should complete soon in the 1780 area, which is the ideal double top (1849) target since 1815 was broken today.  From minor 1 low of 1780, minor 2 should bounce to the 1815 pivot area before waves minor 3 and minor 5 of major [A] reaches a target  in 1710 to 1687 area.   Note that on the 60-min chart there is a large head and shoulders formation with head at 1849, neckline at 1768 that would target 1687.  The rising 200-day SMA is also in the 1701 area and this is also a likely target for major [A]-P4-C1.  The alternate (blue) count remains valid below the 1851 high.

Have a nice weekend.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15min chart EOD 1-24-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 1-24-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 1-24-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 1-24-14

DJIA-30 daily chart (EOD):

PUG DJIA-30 daily chart EOD 1-24-14

Posted in DJIA-30, SP-500 | Comments Off on January 24th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update