5:30 pm EST: The SP500 gapped down from 7673 to 7660, dropped to hit 7624 (day’s low) and closed at 7636.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Seasonality (July 31st): “If you think July was bad, rest of Q3 might just give you a stroke. When S&P 500 closed negative in both June and July, August was a coin flip. $SPX in September was brutal, negative in 11 of 13 years. Rest of quarter was down 8 of 13 with a median drawdown of 13%”. https://x.com/Bluekurtic/status/2083240020249596284?s=20
- Sept-Dec Performance After a +10% to +20% YTD End of August (Aug 31st): Bad news for bears. The S&P 500 is set to close August with double digit YTD gain. There were only 20 years where $SPX gained 10 to 20% YTD by end of August. Only one case saw a 10%+ drawdown of 10.2%.” Average Sept-Dec Gain is +6.0% with a 90% historical probability.” https://x.com/Bluekurtic/status/2093393733412946240?s=20.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Dec 2nd, 2025: $SPX is up 5 straight days [thru 11/28/25], and its McClellan Oscillator cycled from -55 to +68 in just 1 week. Here’s what happened next to $SPX after similar historical rallies.”
Average gains 1 year later is +17.3% in 12 of 12 cases (100%). Signal triggered at SP500 6849 on Nov 28th 2025, so that implies 8033 by Nov 28th, 2026. https://x.com/dailychartbook/status/1995802624076226764?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - Jan 11th, 2026: “Market breadth is improving. 338 S&P 500 stocks are now above their 200 day moving average, for first time in 3+ months. After similar breadth recoveries, $SPX was higher 93% of the time 12M later. Only outlier occurred during COVID, only case where drawdowns also exceeded 20%.” SP500 has a 100% (15 of 15 cases)historical probability of being +14.1% higher that 6910 9 months later. That puts the SP500 target at 7884 by Oct 2026.
https://x.com/Bluekurtic/status/2010471785913807349?s=20 - Jan 30th, 2026: “S&P 500 up 1.4% in January. Rest of year up 87% of the time when January is higher. But when it up between 0-2%? Lower only once. Small clues 2026 should be an above average year for investors.” Average gain is +12% (from 6939 this implies 7772 by Dec 31st, 2026). https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/2017411919297073529?s=20
- Feb 6th, 2026: “The Jan-24 to Feb-6 TOY (Turn Of the Year) Period on the SP500 ended being up from 6915 to 6932 (+0.25%). When the TOY is up between 0 and +2%, the rest of the year is up in 19 of 25 cases (76%) for an average gain of +10.7%” (implies a move from 6932 => 7673 by Dec 31st, 2026). https://x.com/WayneWhaley1136/status/2017738698352152932?s=20
- Feb 26th, 2026: “Active managers have reduced exposure. NAAIM Exposure Index fell below 80 to 74.9, its first break since May 2025. Then NAAIM dropped below 80 for the first time in 2+ months, 6–9M S&P 500 returns were always positive.” (+14.1% in 9 months implies a move from 6908 => 7883 by Nov 27th, 2026). https://x.com/bluekurtic/status/2027171827819119009?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
- May 31st, 2026: “The S&P 500 recently was up more than 19% in two months.
You ready for this one? That has only happened seven other times and stocks were never lower 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or a year later.”
Up an avg +6.4% over 1 month (7562 to 8046 End of June 2026)
Up an avg +10.5% over 3 month (7562 to 8356 End of Aug 2026)
Up an avg +14.6% over 6 months (7562 to 8666 End of Nov 2026)
Up an avg +28.4% over 12 months (7562 to 9709 End of May 2027)
https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/2063830902782701591?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - July 31st, 2026: “July tried, but finished down 0.1%. Prepare to hear a LOT about this from the bears, but down in June and July has been weak for the rest of the year historically.” Down an average -2.5% the rest of the year. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/2083283444692341081?s=20
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P3-C3-SCV wave up is underway with and initial target at 8746, where P3=2.0P1. The major [1]-P3 wave completed at 6147 on Feb 19th, 2025 and the major [2] wave is completed at 4835. The major [3] wave up is underway a target at 8499, where [3]=1.38[1]. Within the major [3], minor 1 completed at 7002 on Jan 28th, 2026 and minor 2 wave completed at 6317 on Mar 30th, 2026 and minor 3 completed at 7621 on June 2nd. The minor 4 wave played out as an ascending triangle that completed at 7314 on July 29th. The minor 5 wave up is underway. Wave (1) of minor 5 completed at 7816. The minute (2) wave reached 7611, retracing to the 38% of 7625. Wave (3) is underway with a target at 8304, where (3) = 1.38(1). Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 7611.
- The alternate (blue) count is that minute (2) of minor 5 of major [3] is still on going towards the 50%/62% retrace at 7565 to 7504. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid above 7314.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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