4:40 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from 3335 to 3340, rose steadily all today to hit a high of 3393, before dropping quickly to 3340 during the final hour and closing at 3363.

Note: 

1. NYMO:  Yesterday (Tues) the NYMO  back below the zero line at -11.  Today the NYMO higher near zero.   Typically it will take multiple NYMO closes above +20 to confirm a new bull wave impulse (per the primary (green) wave count) and this still has not happened.  We have not seen NYMO above +20 this since early August!
2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed slightly higher at 26.37.
3. ZTB:  Yesterday (Tues) the ZBT closed at 0.48.  Today the ZBT closed lower at 0.51.   On both Wed (9/23) and Thurs (9/24) the Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) indicator dropped below the key 0.40 threshold.  Then on Friday (9/25) the ZBT indicator closed back above the 0.40 threshold at 0.45.   This is a potential bullish ZTB signal trigger.  For the ZBT signal to be confirmed, the ZBT indicator must close above 0.615 within 10 trading days including last Friday (9/25) as day 1.   Thus, the 10th day ZBT close is on Thurs (Oct 8th). 

The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 up is underway of the major [2] low at 3209.  Minor 1 wave should target the area slightly above the all-time high of 3588.   Wave i of minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3279.  Wave ii of minute (1) retraced nearly 78% to 3228.  Wave iii of minute (3) completed at 3361.  Wave iv of minute (1) retraced 23% to 3328.  Wave v-(1) completed at 3393 today near the target of v=i area of 3398.  The minute (2) pull-back is underway and should hold above the 3300 area.  The wave (2) 38% to 50% Fib is at 3322 and 3301.  Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above the 3209 major [2] low and will be fully confirmed on a break above the all-time high of 3588.

The alternate (blue) wave count minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 likely completed today at 3393 near the typical 50% at 3399.  The minor C of major [2] down will make a new low below 3209. The target area is at the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058.  The minor C=A target is at 3013 based on minor B ending between 3393.   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the major [1] high of 3588.

House Keeping:  The third quarter (Q3) of 2020 ended today, Sept 30th.  If you are a quarterly subscriber, simply make a payment via the link that I sent in an e-mail to continue with the Premium Service for Q4-2020 (Oct-Dec).

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP-500 daily chart:

5:20 pm EST:  The SP-500 price opened flat from 3352, rose slightly to the days high of 3358, dropped to 3328 and closed at 3335.

Note: 

1. NYMO:  Yesterday (Monday) the NYMO closed above the zero line at +2.67.  Today the NYMO closed lower near -13.   Typically it will take multiple NYMO closes above +20 to confirm a new bull wave impulse (per the primary (green) wave count).  We have not seen NYMO above +20 this since early August!
2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed slightly higher at 26.27.
3. ZTB:  Finally, on both Wed (9/23) and Thurs (9/24) the Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) indicator dropped below the key 0.40 threshold.  Then on Friday (9/25) the ZBT indicator closed back above the 0.40 threshold at 0.45.   This is a potential bullish ZTB signal trigger.  For the ZBT signal to be confirmed, the ZBT indicator must close above 0.615 within 10 trading days including last Friday (9/25) as day 1.   Thus, the 10th day ZBT close is on Thurs (Oct 8th).  Yesterday (Monday) the ZBT closed at 0.52.  Today it closed lower at 0.48.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 completed 3209 near the target of Minor C=A at 3191.  Major [3] up is underway with the minor 1 wave targeting the area slightly above the all-time high of 3588.   Wave i of minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3279.  Wave ii of minute (1) retraced nearly 78% to 3228.  Wave iii of minute (3) completed at 3361.  Wave iv of minute (1) retraced 23% to 3328.  Wave v-(1) targets the v=i area of 3398.  For the minor (1) high near the 3394 pivot, there should be a minute (2) pull-back to hold above the 3300 area.  Note: The primary (white/green) count will be fully confirmed on a break above the all-time high of 3588.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that only minor A of major [2]-P1-C3 completed at 3209.  Wave minor B up is now underway that should retrace to the typical 38%/50% to 62% Fibonacci area of 3353, 3399 to 3444.  The 3361 high could be the end of minor B near the 38% Fib retrace or minor B could still stretch up the 3394 pivot.  Once the minor B wave completes, minor C of major [2] will make a new low below 3209.  The target area is at the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058.  The minor C=A target is at 3020 to 3062 based on minor B ending between 3399 and 3444.   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the major [1] high of 3588.

House Keeping:  The third quarter (Q3) of 2020 ends tomorrow.  If you are a quarterly subscriber, simply make a payment via the link that I sent in an e-mail to continue with the Premium Service for Q4-2020 (Oct-Dec).

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP-500 daily chart:

2:05 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from 3299 to 3334 , quickly hit 3350, dropped to 3333 then rallied to hit the days high (so far) of 3357.

Note: 

1. Wednesday the NYMO closed at -79 below the lower Bollinger Band (BB) at -77.  As mentioned that was potential SP-500 Buy trigger.  This SP500 buy signal was confirmed on Thursday with the NYMO closing back inside its lower BB at -68.72 vs a lower BB at -80.36.  Friday the NYMO closed  up near -40, which is further significant progress towards confirming the major [2] low is in place at 3209.   Today (Monday) intra-day the NYMO has been above the zero line near +10.  Multiple NYMO closes above +20 typical signal a new bull wave impulse (per the primary (green) wave count).
2. Also the VIX closed (Friday) at 26.38 versus 28.56 on Thursday which is well the 30 close on Tuesday Sept 8th.  That is a potential VIX negative divergence (-DIV), which is also potentially bullish for the SP500.  Today (Monday) the intra-day VIX is at 26.56, which has not dropped below Friday’s area of 26.38 and is a little concerning.
3. I will note that on the 60-min chart, the drop down from 3588 to 3209 so far looks like a bullish falling wedge pattern.  Breaking out of this falling wedge at 3300 and breaking above 3329 should confirm the major [2] low.  Friday the SP500 broke out from the wedge at 3307 but close right on the wedge upper line at 3299.  Today (Monday) the SP500 broke well above the bullish falling wedge upper trend line.
4. The entire last week the SP-500 closed above the June high of 3233.  This is a bullish outcome, holding previous resistance that has become support.
5. Finally, on both Wed (9/23) and Thurs (9/24) the Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) indicator dropped below the key 0.40 threshold.  Then on Friday (9/25) the ZBT indicator closed back above the 0.40 threshold at 0.45.   This is a potential bullish ZTB signal trigger.  For the ZBT signal to be confirmed, the ZBT indicator must close above 0.615 within 10 trading days including last Friday (9/25) as day 1.   Thus, the 10th day ZBT close is on Thurs (Oct 8th).

The primary (white/green) count is that minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 completed 3209 near the target of Minor C=A at 3191.  Major [3] up is underway with the minor 1 wave targeting the area slightly above the all-time high of 3588.   Wave i of minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3279.  Wave ii of minute (1) retraced nearly 78% to 3228.  Wave iii of minute (3) is headed for at least 3368, where iii=2.00*i.  Wave iv of minute (1) should retrace 23% to 3325, before wave v-(1) targets the v=i area of 3397.  For the minor (1) high near the 3394 pivot, there should be a minute (2) pull-back to hold above the 3300 area.  Note: The primary (white/green) count will be fully confirmed on a break above the all-time high of 3588.

The new alternate (blue) wave count is that only minor A of major [2]-P1-C3 completed at 3209.  Wave minor B up is now underway that should retrace to the typical 50% to 62% Fibonacci area of 3399 to 3444.  Once the minor B wave completes, minor C of major [2] will make a new low below 3209.  The target area is at the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058.  The minor C=A target is at 3020 to 3062 based on minor B ending between 3399 and 3444.   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the major [1] high of 3588.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP-500 daily chart:

5:15 pm EST:  The SP-500 price opened flat for 3346, quickly hit the days low at 3228, then rallied to hit the days high of 3307, and dropped back slightly to close at 3299.

Note: 

1. Wednesday the NYMO closed at -79 below the lower Bollinger Band (BB) at -77.  As mentioned that was potential SP-500 Buy trigger.  This SP500 buy signal was confirmed on Thursday with the NYMO closing back inside its lower BB at -68.72 vs a lower BB at -80.36.  Today (Friday) the NYMO closed  up near -40, which is further significant progress towards confirming the major [2] low is in place at 3209.
2. Also the VIX closed today (Friday) at 26.38 versus 28.56 on Thursday which is well the 30 close on Tuesday Sept 8th.  That is a potential VIX negative divergence (-DIV), which is also potentially bullish for the SP500. 
3. I will note that on the 60-min chart, the drop down from 3588 to 3209 so far looks like a bullish falling wedge pattern.  Breaking out of this falling wedge at 3300 and breaking above 3329 should confirm the major [2] low.  Today (Friday) the SP500 broke out from the wedge at 3307 but close right on the wedge upper line at 3299.
4. Finally, the entire week the SP-500 closed above the June high of 3233.  This is bullish outcome holding previous resistance that has become support.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 completed 3209 near the target of Minor C=A at 3191.  Major [3] up is underway with the minor 1 wave targeting the all-time high of 3588.   Wave i of minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3279.  Wave ii of minute (1) retraced nearly 78% to 3228.  Wave iii of minute (3) is headed for at least 3341, where iii=1.62*i.  Wave iv of minute (1) should retrace 23% to 3315, before wave v-(1) targets the v=i area of 3385.  Note: the primary (white/green) wave count will be confirmed on break above the minute (1) of minor C low at 3329. 

The alternate (blue) wave count minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 is headed for a deeper target at C=1.62A = 3043 and the 38% Fib of 3058.   Wave minute (1) of minor C completed at 3229.  Wave (2) retraced to 3323, near the 50% Fib retrace of 3329.  Now wave minute (3) is headed toward (3)=1.23(1) target at 3077.  This wave minute (3) should bust through the lower line of the bullish falling wedge, break the 3153 pivot and the rising 200-day SMA of 3106 indicating that the primary (white/green) wave count is wrong and confirming the alternate (blue).   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the minute (2) of minor C high of 3323.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP-500 daily chart:

SP-500 weekly chart:

6:15 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped down from form 3237 to 3228, quickly hit the days low at 3209, then rallied to hit the days high of 3279, dropped back to 3230 and closed at 3246.

Note: 

1. Yesterday’s alternate (blue) count was eliminated with the drop below 3229 today.   The primary (white/green) count remains the same looking for low near the C=A=3191 (today’s low 3209 could be it) and I really like this wave count.  The new alternate (blue) is a more bearish version of the primary (white/green) calling for a little deeper major [2] drop to the 3053 pivot.
2. Yesterday the NYMO closed at -79 below the lower Bollinger Band (BB) at -77.  As mentioned that was potential SP-500 Buy trigger, that was confirmed today with the NYMO closing back inside its lower BB at -68.72 vs a lower BB at -80.36.
3. Also the VIX closed today at 28.51 versus just above 30 on Tuesday Sept 8th.  That is a potential VIX negative divergence (-DIV), which is also potentially bullish for the SP500. 
4. Finally I will note that on the 60-min chart, the drop down from 3588 to 3209 so far looks like a bullish falling wedge pattern.  Breaking out of this falling wedge and break above 3329 should confirm the major [2] low.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 completed today at 3209 or drop just slightly lower to Minor C=A=3191.   Wave minute (1) of minor C completed at 3329.  Wave minute (2) retraced to 3362.  Wave minute (3) ended at 3229, where (3)=1.38(1).  Wave (4) of minor C ended at 3323, just below the minute (1) wave invalidation level at 3329.  The final minute (5) wave completed today at 3209 or will target minor C=A=3191.  The 30% retrace of major [1] target for major [2] is at 3169 (which is same retrace as the year 2009 major [2]-P1-C1 wave).  Note: the primary (white/green) wave count will be confirmed on break above the minute (1) of minor C low at 3329. 

The new alternate (blue) wave count minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 is headed for a deeper target at C=1.62A = 3043 and the 38% Fib of 3058.   Wave minute (1) of minor C completed at 3229.  Wave (2) retraced to 3323, near the 50% Fib retrace of 3329.  Now wave minute (3) is headed toward (3)=1.23(1) target at 3077.  This wave minute (3) should bust through the lower line of the bullish falling wedge, break the 3153 pivot and the rising 200-day SMA of 3106 indicating that the primary (white/green) wave count is wrong and confirming the alternate (blue).   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the minute (2) of minor C high of 3323.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP-500 daily chart:

5:40 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from form 3315 to 3319, quickly hit the days high at 3323, then slid lower all day to hit the days low of 3233 and closed near the low at 3227.

Note: 

1. The bullish 2 week long $NYMO positive divergence (+DIV) above -68 was eliminated with today’s $NYMO close at roughly -82.  It’s possible that this -82 level is below the lower Bollinger Band (BB), but this won’t be shown until after 6pm EST.  If it is below the BB, then that’s a potential SP-500 Buy trigger.
2. Also the VIX closed today at roughly 28.58 versus just above 30 on Tuesday Sept 8th.  That is a potential VIX negative divergence (-DIV), which is also potentially bullish for the SP500. 
3. Both wave counts are battling here between 3229 and 3329.  As unlikely has the primary (white/green) looked yesterday at the 3320 high, the alternate (blue) looks just as unlikely at today’s 3233 low.  We’ll get a break of this 3229 to 3329 range soon, to determine the winner.
4. I will note that on the 60-min chart the drop down from 3588 to 3229 so far looks like a bullish falling wedge pattern.  One more touch of the lower trendline per the primary (white/green) wave count looks like now.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor C of major [2]-P1-C3 is ongoing with the first target of Minor C=A=3191, C=1.23A = 3136, C=1.38A=3100 or lowest target at the C=1.62A = 3043.  Wave minute (1) of minor C completed at 3329.  Wave minute (2) retraced to 3362.  Wave minute (3) ended at 3229, where (3)=1.38(1).  Wave (4) of minor C ended today at 3323, just below the minute (1) wave invalidation level at 3329.  Thus, the final minute (5) wave is headed for the first target of minor C=A=3191.  The 23%, 30% to 38% Fib retrace range of major [1] target for major [2] is at 3267, 3169, 3057.  Note: the primary (white/green) wave count minute (4) wave remains valid below the minute (1) of minor C low at 3329.  Above 3329, the alternate (blue) count becomes the primary.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [2]-P1-C3 completed at 3229 as a sharp -10% correction.   The minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave up to the all-time high of 3588 should be underway.  The minute (1) wave of minor 1 could have ended at 3323 and minute (2) must be complete at today’s low of 3233.  Wave minute (3) = 2.62(1) target is at 3479.   Wave minute (4) 23% Fib is at 3422 and the minute (5)=(1) target is 3516 or close to the 3501 pivot.   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above the major [2] low at 3229.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP-500 daily chart:

5:45 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from form 3218 to 3295, quickly hit 3303, dropped to 3271, then rose the rest of the day to a high at 3320 and closed at 3315.

Note: 

1. Yesterday we got the 2nd lower closing low at 3281, below the 3332 close from Sept 8th.   When the SP500 closed at 3332 on Tuesday Sept 8th the NYMO closed at -68.  Today the NYMO closed at roughly -58. That is a potential strong NYMO positive divergence (+DIV) with respect to the new SP500 closing low of 3281, which is potentially bullish for the SP500.  It will take a NYMO close above today’s close on Tuesday to confirm the NYMO +DIV.  CONFIRMED with NYMO closing at roughly -45.
2. Also the VIX closed today at roughly 28 versus above 30 on Tuesday Sept 8th.  That is a potential VIX negative divergence (-DIV), which is also bullish for the SP500.  It will take a VIX close below today’s close on Tuesday to confirm the -DIV.  CONFIRMED with VIX closing at -26.86.
3. Because of notes 1 and 2 above, the alternate (blue) count is more probably that the the primary (white/green).   However, I will wait for the SP-500 price to break above the key level of 3329 before removing the primary (white/green) and replacing it with the alt(blue).

The primary (white/green) count is that minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave ended at 3429 as an expanded flat from the minor A low of 3350.  From the minor B high at 3429, the minor C wave lower should reach the 3258 to 3154 pivot area.  The Minor C=A target is 3191 and the C=1.62A = 3043.  Wave minute (1) of minor C completed at 3329.  Wave minute (2) retraced to 3362.  Wave minute (3) ended at 3229, where (3)=1.38(1).  Wave (4) of minor C has to have ended today at 3320, as it can’t enter the price of the minute (1) wave at 3329.  Thus, the final minute (5) wave down must gap down tomorrow and head for to the 3191 minor C=A target.  The 23% to 38% Fib retrace of major [1] target for major [2] is at 3267 to 3057.  Note: the primary (white/green) wave count minute (4) wave remains valid below the minute (1) of minor C low at 3329.  Above 3329, the alternate (blue) count becomes the primary.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [2]-P1-C3 completed at 3229 as a sharp -10% correction.   The minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave up to the all-time high of 3588 should be underway.  The minute (1) wave of minor 1 could have ended today at 3320 or could reach the 3338 pivot area.  If wave minute (1) ended today at 3320, then the 50% Fib retrace for wave  minute (2) is at 3275.  Wave minute (3) = 2.62(1) target is at 3513.   Wave minute (4) 23% Fib is at 3458 and the minute (5)=(1) target is 3549 or close to the 3588 all-time high.   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above the major [2] low at 3229.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP-500 daily chart:

4:50 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped down from form 3319 to 3286, hit the day’s low at 3229 around mid-morning, drift around 3329 to 3359 and then rallied to close at 3281.

Note: 

1. Today we got the 2nd lower closing low at 3281, below the 3332 close from Sept 8th.   When the SP500 closed at 3332 on Tuesday Sept 8th the NYMO closed at -68.  Today the NYMO closed at roughly -58. That is a potential strong NYMO positive divergence (+DIV) with respect to the new SP500 closing low of 3281, which is potentially bullish for the SP500.  It will take a NYMO close above today’s close on Tuesday to confirm the NYMO +DIV. 
2. Also the VIX closed today at roughly 28 versus above 30 on Tuesday Sept 8th.  That is a potential VIX negative divergence (-DIV), which is also bullish for the SP500.  It will take a VIX close below today’s close on Tuesday to confirm the -DIV.
3. Because of notes 1 and 2 above, alternate (blue) count is at least a likely as the primary (white/green).   It will take a negation of the both the NYMO +DIV and VIX -DIV to eliminate the alternate (blue) count and confirm the primary (white/green) count.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave ended at 3429 as an expanded flat from the minor A low of 3350.  From the minor B high at 3429, the minor C wave lower should reach the 3258 to 3154 pivot area.  The Minor C=A target is 3191 and the C=1.62A = 3043.  Wave minute (1) of minor C completed at 3329.  Wave minute (2) retraced to 3362.  Wave minute (3) likely ended today at 3229, where (3)=1.38(1).  Wave (4) of minor C should retrace 38% to 3280, before the final minute (5) drops to the 3191 minor C=A target.  The 23% to 38% Fib retrace of major [1] target for major [2] is at 3267 to 3057.  Note: the primary (white/green) wave count minute (4) wave remains valid below the minute (1) of minor C low at 3329.  Above 3329, the alternate (blue) count becomes the primary.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [2]-P1-C3 completed at 3229 as a sharp -10% correction.   The minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave up to the all-time high of 3588 should be underway.  The minute (1) wave of minor 1 should reach the 3338 pivot area.   Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above the major [2] low at 3229.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP-500 daily chart: