October 9th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on October 9, 2025
8:55 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 6753 to 6760, quickly hit 6764 (day’s high and new all-time high!), then dropped to 6716 (day’s low) and closed at 6735.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Daily Chart Divergence: With the new all-time high at 6750 on Friday, Oct 3rd there is potential for a -DIV to form on the daily chart RSI.
- $NYAD: The $NYAD is showing a potential -DIV with the new SP-500 all-time high at 6750 on Friday, Oct 3rd. $NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- “Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.” Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. October started at 6641, so that implies a target at 7092 by Dec 31st.
https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373). https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
- Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845): https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
- Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB: https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6409, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 at 6394. The minor 4 wave completed as an expanded flat wave at 6212. The minor 5 wave up is underway with a target of 6858, where minor 5=1. Within the minor 5 wave, minute (1) completed at 6481, minute (2) at 6344, minute (3) at 6699 and minute (4) at 6569. The final minute (5) wave of minor 5 is underway that has moved above 6699 and should head for 6858. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled is valid above 6677.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 3 of major [1] to 6794, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1. Once the minor 3 wave completed, the minor 4 wave should target at the 23% Fib retrace of 6405.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-in chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
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