October 17th, 2025: SP500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on October 17, 2025
5:35 pm EST: The SP500 gapped down from 6629 to 6618, dropped to 6603 (day’s low), then traded sideways until a late day rally to 6679 (day’s high) and closed at 6664.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- VIX: The VIX closed above its upper BB on Thursday, Oct 16th triggering the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy Signal. The VIX closed well below its upper BB on Friday, Oct 17th confirming step 2 of the VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal. A red VIX on Monday, Oct 20th will nail down this bullish signal.
- Daily Chart Divergence: With the new all-time high at 6750 on Friday, Oct 3rd there is potential for a -DIV to form on the daily chart RSI.
- $NYAD: The $NYAD is showing a potential -DIV with the new SP-500 all-time high at 6750 on Friday, Oct 3rd. $NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- “Q4 has never been lower when the S&P 500 makes a new all-time high in the usually weak months of August and September, along with at least one in October. This bodes well for continued strength in 2025.” Average Q4 gain is +6.8%. October started at 6641, so that implies a target at 7092 by Dec 31st, 2025.
https://x.com/ryandetrick/status/1974200732791550228?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373). https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
- Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845): https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
- Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB: https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P5 wave up is underway with the P5=1.23P1 target at 8086. The major [1]-P5 wave will have 5 minor degree waves. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave reached 6764, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 at 6794. The minor 4 wave is playing out as a contracting triangle with the minute (a) wave completed at 6551, which is the 13% Fib retrace. The minute (b) completed at 6724 and minute (c) at 6594. The minute (d) up is underway and minute (e) down is yet to fully unfold to complete the triangle. Once triangle minor 4 wave completes., the minor 5 wave target is at 7197, where minor 5 = minor 1. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 6551.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
QQQ weekly chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
IWM weekly chart:
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