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October 16th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 16, 2020

5:15 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from 3488 to 3493, quickly hit the days high at 3516, then fell all today to hit 3480 and and closed at 3484.


  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near 0 from +13 yesterday.
  2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed up 1.6% at 27.41. Need to see the VIX drop below 20 before we can safely say we have entered the grinding higher minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave.
  3. Chart PatternThere is a confirmed bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) pattern on the 15-min chart with HEAD at 3209 and Neckline at 3430.  The typical IHS reaches at least the 62% of the base height on top of the neckline (3430 + 0.62(3430-3209) = 3567. The full measured move of the IHS is 3430 + (3430-3209) = 3651. Note, this IHS has basically be satisfied on the move up to 3550 (vs 3561 min target) and if the IHS 3430 neckline is closed below, then the pattern has ran its course and the minor 1 or minor B wave top is in place.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 up is underway off the major [2] low at 3209.  Minor 1 wave should target the area slightly above the all-time high of 3588 near 3640.   Wave minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3397.  The minute (2) played out as a running flat pull-back (a=3324, b=3421, c=3354) where c=a at 3358. The minute (3) ended at 3550, where (3)=1.23(1) = 3555. The minute (4) wave completed at 3441 just below the 38% Fib at 3465. The low end of the minute (5) target is where (5)=0.62(1) = 3558 up to the minute (5)=(1) target of 3629 to complete the minor 1 wave.  Once minor 1 of major [3] completes near the 3588, the minor 2 wave should retrace to 50%/62% Fibs at 3419/3368. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above the 3441 minute (4) low.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 completed at 3550. The minor 2 wave should retraced to between the 50% and 62% Fib of minor 1 at 3379 to 3339. The drop from 3550 to 3441 is minute (a) of minor 2. The minute (b) wave retraced to 3516, which is between the 62%/78 Fib at 3509/3526. Next the minute (c) wave should drop to at least the (c)=(a) target of 3407 or to the (c)=1.62(a) target at 3339.  Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the minor 1 high of 3550.

The new alternate (red) wave count (old alt blue) is that minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave is complete at 3550, just above the 88% Fib at 3543. The minor C of major [2] down will make a new low below 3209. The target area is where minor C = A at 3171 and then the rising 200-day SMA at 3122 and the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058.  Wave minute (1) of minor C wave looks to have completed at 3441. The minute (2) retraced to 3516, which is between 62%/78% Fib at 3509 to 3326. Next the minute (3) should target the (3)=2.62(1) at 3230, followed by a 23% retrace for minute (4) to 3296 and finally a minute (5) wave drop to the 3171 minor C=A target. Note: this alternate (red) wave count remains valid below the minor B high of 3550.

House Keeping: 1) The wife and I leaving for a short vacation to Florida on Sunday Oct 18th through Thursday Oct 22nd. There will likely be no blog updates those days. I will be back at home on Friday, Oct 23rd and will make a blog update. As always I will monitor the markets through my iPhone while I’m away from home. I’ll comment and respond to comments when I can.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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