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October 15th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 15, 2020

5:10 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped down from 3488 to 3455 and quickly hit the days low at 3441, the climbed all to hit 3489 and closed at 3483.

Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed flat near +13.
  2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed up 2% at 26.97. Need to see the VIX drop below 20 for the grinding minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave higher.
  3. Chart PatternThere is a confirmed bullish Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) pattern on the 15-min chart with HEAD at 3209 and Neckline at 3430.  The typical IHS reaches at least the 62% of the base height on top of the neckline (3430 + 0.62(3430-3209) = 3567. The full measured move of the IHS is 3430 + (3430-3209) = 3651. Note, if the IHS 3430 neckline is closed below, then the pattern has ran its course and the minor 1 or minor B wave top is in place.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 up is underway off the major [2] low at 3209.  Minor 1 wave should target the area slightly above the all-time high of 3588 near 3640.   Wave minute (1) of minor 1 completed at 3397.  The minute (2) played out as a running flat pull-back (a=3324, b=3421, c=3354) where c=a at 3358. The minute (3) ended at 3550, where (3)=1.23(1) = 3555. The minute (4) wave completed today at 3441 just below the 38% Fib at 3465. The minute (5)=0.62(1) target is at 3558 and the minute (5)=(1) target is at 3629 to complete the minor 1 wave.  Once minor 1 of major [3] completes near the 3588, the minor 2 wave should retrace to 50%/62% Fibs at 3419/3368. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above the 3397 minute (1) high.

The new alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P1-C3 completed at 3550. The minor 2 wave should retrace to the 50% to 62% Fib of minor 1 at 3379 to 3339. The drop from 3550 to 3441 is minute (a) of minor 2. The minute (b) wave should retrace to the 50%/62% at 3496 to 3509 and may have completed today at 3489. Next the minute (c) wave should drop to at least the (c)=(a) target of 3387 or to the (c)=1.62(a) target at 3319. Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the minor 1 high of 3550.

The new alternate (red) wave count (old alt blue) is that minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave is complete at 3550, just above the 88% Fib at 3543. The minor C of major [2] down will make a new low below 3209. The target area is where minor C = A at 3171 and then the rising 200-day SMA at 3122 and the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058.  Wave minute (1) of minor C wave looks to have completed today at 3441. The minute (2) should retrace to the 50%/62% Fib at 3496 to 3509 and may have completed today at 3489. Next the minute (3) should target the (3)=2.62(1) at 3210, followed by a 23% retrace for minute (4) to 3276 and finally a minute (5) wave drop to the 3171 minor C=A target. Note: this alternate (red) wave count remains valid below the minor B high of 3550.

House Keeping: 1) The wife and I leaving for a short vacation to Florida on Sunday Oct 18th through Thursday Oct 22nd. There will likely be no blog updates those days. I will be back at home on Friday, Oct 23rd and will make a blog update. As always I will monitor the markets through my iPhone while I’m away from home. I’ll comment and respond to comments when I can.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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