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October 23rd, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 23, 2020

6:15 pm EST:  The SP-500 price gapped up from 3454 to 3464, quickly hit the days high at 3466, then fell to the days low at 3440 and rose the rest of today to close at 3465.

Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up near +15 on Friday from a low of -23 on Monday. Need to see the NYMO close multiple times above +20 to confirm the minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave higher.
  2. VIX:  Today the VIX closed down -2% at 27.55.  Need to see the VIX drop below 20 before we can safely say we have entered the grinding higher minor 3 of major [3]-P1-C3 wave.
  3. Chart PatternThere is a potential bullish Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern on the 4-hr chart with target of 3350 + (3588-3209) = 3929. The Cup rim is formed from the 3588 to 3550 highs. The bottom of the Cup is at the 3209 low. A break above the 3550 lowest rim of the cup will confirm the pattern.

The primary (white/green) count is that minor 2 of major [3]-P1-C3 completed at 3415, near the 50% Fib retracement of minor 1 at 3380. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 is under way with a target near the 3550 minor 1 high. Wave i-(1) reached 3466, wave ii-(1) retraced 50% to 3440 and now wave iii-(1) is underway to a target at 3523, where iii=1.62*i. Wave iv-(1) should retrace to the 23% Fib of 3504 and wave v=i is at 3545 to complete minute (1). Note the minor 3 =1.62 target is at 3967 right at the C&H pattern target.  Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above the 3415 minor 2 low.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 2 of major [3]-P1-C3 is on going towards the 62% Fib retracement of minor 1 at 3339. Minute (a) of minor 2 completed at 3415 as a leading diagonal. Minute (b) is complete at 3466 at the 38% Fib or will retrace to the 50% Fib at 3482. Once minute (b) completes, minute (c) of minor 2 will target the (c)=(a) of 3331 to 3347. Note: this alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the minor 1 high of 3550.

The alternate (red) wave count (old alt blue) is that minor B of major [2]-P1-C3 wave is complete at 3550, just above the 88% Fib at 3543. The minor C of major [2] down will make a new low below 3209. The target area is where minor C = A at 3171 and then the rising 200-day SMA at 3122 and the 38% Fib retrace of major [1], which is at 3058.  Wave minute (1) of minor C wave looks to have completed at 3415 as a leading diagonal. The minute (2) is targeting the 38%/50% Fib retracement at 3466 to 3482. Next the minute (3) should target the (3)=1.62(1) at 3263, followed by a 23% retrace for minute (4) to 3331 and finally a minute (5) wave drop to the 3171 minor C=A target. Note: this alternate (red) wave count remains valid below the minor B high of 3550.

Have a great weekend !

15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

Daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

Weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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