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November 25th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on November 25, 2015

12:00 pm EST:   Today’s small price movement does not affect either wave counts.   The SPX 2116 level remains the key dividing line between the two wave counts.   Below 2116 the primary (red) count rounded top pattern with Cycle 1 (C1) complete at 2135 from May 2015 is still valid with the Primary C (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed for SPX 1575 level sometime around mid-year 2016.   Above 2116, the SP-500 price is likely headed to the SPX 2200 area via the alternate (blue) wave count to complete the Cycle 1 (C1) top after the first of the year 2016.

The primary (red) count is that Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave topped at 2116 and has begun the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1575 target area.   This first minor 1 of major [1]-PC wave completed at the 2019 pivot.   The minor 2 bounce should end at the 78%/88% Fib retrace of 2095/2104.  After wave minor 2 completes, wave minor 3 should drop below 1991 pivot to the 1926/1905 pivot area, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1.   The red count remains valid as long this minor 2 wave remains below 2116.

The alternate (blue) count is that Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) has one more push up above the 2135 level coming of the Primary 4 (P4) low of 1867 from August.   The 2116 level was the major [3]-P5 high and the drop from 2116 to 2019 is a typical 38% retrace (2023) for the major [4]-P5 wave.  Wave major [5] is underway from 2019 and should reach at least to the [5]=[1] target 2145.  There is also a double bottom target of 2170 and P5=0.5*P1 target at 2219.   Within major [5] there should be 5 minor waves higher.  Minor 1 of major [5] looks to have completed at 2067 and the wave 2 retrace of near 50% ended at 2046.   Wave minor 3 is underway and should make a new high above 2135, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 at 2169.  Within minor 3, wave (1) completed at 2097 and wave (2) completed to at 2070.  Now wave (3) of minor 3 is underway and headed to a (3)=1.62(1) target of 2153 (see details on the 15/60-min charts).   The blue count remains valid above the major [4] low of 2019.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min 11-25-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr 11-25-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr 11-25-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily 11-25-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly 11-25-15

SP-500 Weekly Chart Round Top Pattern (11-17-15):

PUG SP-500 Weekly Chart 11-17-15

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