PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

Elliott Wave Technical Analysis and Commentary on the Stock Market

November 24th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on November 24, 2015

3:40 pm EST:  With the strong rebound to 2094 off the 2070 low today looks like both wave counts want to test higher that 2097.   The key E-wave level to watch now is at 2116.  Above 2116 and the alternate (blue) count outcome is the most probable making it the new primary count.

The primary (red) count is that Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave topped at 2116 and has begun the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1575 target area.   This first minor 1 of major [1]-PC wave completed at the 2019 pivot.   The minor 2 bounce should end at the the 78%/88% Fib retrace of 2095/2104.  After wave minor 2 completes, wave minor 3 should drop below 1991 pivot to the 1926/1905 pivot area, where minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1.   The red count remains valid as long this minor 2 wave remains below 2116.

The alternate (blue) count is that Primary 5 (P5) of Cycle 1 (C1) has one more push up above the 2135 level coming of the Primary 4 (P4) low of 1867 from August.   The 2116 level was the major [3]-P5 high and the drop from 2116 to 2019 is a typical 38% retrace (2023) for the major [4]-P5 wave.  Wave major [5] is underway from 2019 and should reach at least to the [5]=[1] target 2145.  There is also a double bottom target of 2170 and P5=0.5*P1 target at 2219.   Within major [5] there should be 5 minor waves higher.  Minor 1 of major [5] looks to have completed at 2067 and the wave 2 retrace of near 50% ended at 2046.   Wave minor 3 is underway and should make a new high above 2135, where minor 3 = 2.62*minor 1 at 2169.  Within minor 3, wave (1) completed at 2097, wave (2) completed to at 2070.  Now wave (3) of minor 3 is underway and headed to a (3)=1.62(1) target of 2153 (see details on the 15/60-min charts).   The blue count remains valid above the major [4] low of 2019.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 11-24-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 11-24-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 11-24-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 11-24-15

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