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3:35 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4524 to 4534, quickly rose to hit a day’s high at 4546 (a new all-time high), traded sideways down to 4528 in the afternoon…
The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 is headed toward a typical 1.62 Fibonacci extension of major [1], which is at 4652. It’s possible that minor 5 of major [3] is playing out as an ending diagonal with minute (1) at 4394, minute (2) at 4233, minute (3) at 4480, minute (4) at 4368 and now minute (5) which must complete where (5)<(3) for a 4615 maximum. Remember an ending diagonal is typical 3-3-3-3-3 wave move, so this final minute (5) wave will be an a-b-c. This a-b-c could have completed at the lowest target of c=0.50a = 4536 or could extend to c=a at 4603. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid below the ED max at 4615.
The alternate (blue) count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4480. The drop from 4480 to 4368 was the minute (2) wave that ended just above the typical 50% Fib retrace of 4357. The minute (3) wave target is at 4709, where (3)=1.38(1). Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above minute (2) of minor 3 wave low at 4368. Breaking below 4368, will confirm the primary (white/green) wave count using in the a major [4] correction.
House Keeping: Markets are closed for the Labor Day Holiday on Monday September, 6th. The next blog post will be Tuesday, September 7th.
5:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4522 to 4528, rose to hit a day’s high at 4537 and closed at 4524.
The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 is headed toward a typical 1.62 Fibonacci extension of major [1], which is at 4652. It’s possible that minor 5 of major [3] is playing out as an ending diagonal with minute (1) at 4394, minute (2) at 4233, minute (3) at 4480, minute (4) at 4368 and now minute (5) which must complete where (5)<(3) for a 4615 maximum. Remember an ending diagonal is typical 3-3-3-3-3 wave move, so this final minute (5) wave will be an a-b-c. This a-b-c could have completed at the lowest target of c=0.50a = 4536 or could extend to c=a at 4603. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid below the ED max at 4615.
The alternate (blue) count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4480. The drop from 4480 to 4368 was the minute (2) wave that ended just above the typical 50% Fib retrace of 4357. The minute (3) wave target is at 4709, where (3)=1.38(1). Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above minute (2) of minor 3 wave low at 4368. Breaking below 4368, will confirm the primary (white/green) wave count using in the a major [4] correction.
5:30 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4509 to 4513, rose all day to hit a day’s high at 4537 and closed at 4529.
The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 is headed toward a typical 1.62 Fibonacci extension of major [1], which is at 4652. It’s possible that minor 5 of major [3] is playing out as an ending diagonal with minute (1) at 4394, minute (2) at 4233, minute (3) at 4480, minute (4) at 4368 and now minute (5) which must complete where (5)<(3) for a 4615 maximum. Remember an ending diagonal is typical 3-3-3-3-3 wave move, so this final minute (5) wave will be an a-b-c. This a-b-c could have completed today at the lowest target of c=0.50a = 4536 or could extend to c=a at 4603. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid below the ED max at 4615.
The alternate (blue) count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4480. The drop from 4480 to 4368 was the minute (2) wave that ended just above the typical 50% Fib retrace of 4357. The minute (3) wave target is at 4709, where (3)=1.38(1). Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above minute (2) of minor 3 wave low at 4368. Breaking below 4368, will confirm the primary (white/green) wave count using in the a major [4] correction.
12:45 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4496 to 4494, dropped to a day’s low at 4469 and rose to 4487.
The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 is headed toward a typical 1.62 Fibonacci extension of major [1], which is at 4652. It’s possible that minor 5 of major [3] is playing out as an ending diagonal with minute (1) at 4394, minute (2) at 4233, minute (3) at 4480, minute (4) at 4368 and now minute (5) which must complete where (5)<(3) for a 4615 maximum. Remember an ending diagonal is typical 3-3-3-3-3 wave move, so this final minute (5) wave will be an a-b-c. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid below the minute (4) of minor 5 low at 4368. Breaking below 4368 will usher in the major [4] correction towards the 4191 pivot area.
The alternate (blue) count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4480. The drop from 4480 to 4368 was the minute (2) wave that ended just above the typical 50% Fib retrace of 4357. The minute (3) wave target is at 4709, where (3)=1.38(1). Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above minute (2) of minor 3 wave low at 4368. Breaking below 4368, will confirm the primary (white/green) wave count.
3:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4441 to 4450, then rose steady to 4489 (new all-time high) and traded sideways.
The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 is headed toward a typical 1.62 Fibonacci extension of major [1], which is at 4652. It’s possible that minor 5 of major [3] is playing out as an ending diagonal with minute (1) at 4394, minute (2) at 4233, minute (3) at 4480, minute (4) at 4368 and now minute (5) which must complete where (5)<(3) for a 4615 maximum. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid below the minute (4) of minor 5 low at 4368. Breaking below 4368 will usher in the major [4] correction towards the 4191 pivot area.
The alternate (blue) count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4480. The drop from 4480 to 4368 was the minute (2) wave that ended just above the typical 50% Fib retrace of 4357. The minute (3) wave target is at 4709, where (3)=1.38(1). Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above minute (2) of minor 3 wave low at 4368. Breaking below 4368, will confirm the primary (white/green) wave count.
4:50 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4400 to 4382, quickly hit 4368 (days low), bounced to 4419, dropped to 4383, rallied to 4418 and closed at 4405.
The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4480 and now the major [4] will retrace to at least the 23% Fib of major [3], which is 4132. I’m expecting the major [4] wave to trace out a complex double zig-zag to alternate with the simple zig-zag of major [2]. The first wave down from 4480 towards 4307 is the minor W of major [4]. There would then be minor X wave bounce to a 50% Fib near the 4394 pivot and then the final minor Y wave down to the 4132 target to complete major [4]. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid below the major [3] high at 4480.
The alternate (blue) count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4480. The drop from 4480 to 4368 is either all of the minute (2) wave that ended just above the typical 50% Fib retrace of 4357 or there could be one more push down toward the 62% Fib at 4327. One minute (2) complete the minute (3) wave target is at 4709, where (3)=1.38(1). Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above minor 2 of major [5] low at 4233.
Have a great weekend !
Market Technical Notes:
NYMO:The NYMO closed down near -65 from -51 yesterday. It also looks like the NYMO will close a 2nd consecutive day below its lower BB and below -40. As noted here many times over the past 11+ years, two consecutive NYMO closes below its lower BB and below -40 is typical followed by a big move up for the SP-500.
VIX: The VIX closed up +0.5 % at 21.67.The VIX looks to also have closed above its upper BB two consecutive days. This sets up a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal.
Chart Pattern: None.
NYSE A-D Line Cumulative:The NYSE A-D Line cumulative still has not made a new all-time high since early July.
3:55 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4480 to 4462, dropped to 4417 (day’s low), then rally to close near 4448.
Breaking below 4373, would set the the primary (white/green) wave count major [3]-P1-C3 top at 4480 and usher in a major [4] wave drop to the 23% Fib at 4132 (a -7.8% correction).
However, as long as SP-500 price holds above 4373, the alternate (blue) wave count is valid and could like to much higher prices without a significant pull-back as major [5]-P1-C3 continues to rally toward a major [5]=[1] target at 5098.
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