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August 19th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on August 19, 2021

4:50 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4400 to 4382, quickly hit 4368 (days low), bounced to 4419, dropped to 4383, rallied to 4418 and closed at 4405.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4480 and now the major [4] will retrace to at least the 23% Fib of major [3], which is 4132. I’m expecting the major [4] wave to trace out a complex double zig-zag to alternate with the simple zig-zag of major [2]. The first wave down from 4480 towards 4307 is the minor W of major [4]. There would then be minor X wave bounce to a 50% Fib near the 4394 pivot and then the final minor Y wave down to the 4132 target to complete major [4]. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count remains valid below the major [3] high at 4480.

The alternate (blue) count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4480. The drop from 4480 to 4368 is either all of the minute (2) wave that ended just above the typical 50% Fib retrace of 4357 or there could be one more push down toward the 62% Fib at 4327. One minute (2) complete the minute (3) wave target is at 4709, where (3)=1.38(1). Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid above minor 2 of major [5] low at 4233.

Have a great weekend !

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -65 from -51 yesterday.  It also looks like the NYMO will close a 2nd consecutive day below its lower BB and below -40. As noted here many times over the past 11+ years, two consecutive NYMO closes below its lower BB and below -40 is typical followed by a big move up for the SP-500.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +0.5 % at 21.67. The VIX looks to also have closed above its upper BB two consecutive days. This sets up a VIX Sell, SP500 Buy signal.
  3. Chart Pattern: None.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The NYSE A-D Line cumulative still has not made a new all-time high since early July.

Seasonality:

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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