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9:25 am EST: It’s to time introduce the possibility of a very bearish alternate (red) wave count that P1-C3 topped at 4546 as an ending diagonal for major [5]-P1-C3.
The primary (green) count is that minor 1 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4546. The drop to 4306 was a minor 2 wave that retraced to the 50% Fib of 4302. The minor 3 wave up is underway, to a first target area a 4907, where minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1. Within, minor 3, the first minor (1) wave is likely headed for the 4546 pivot area (see 15-mini chart for details of the minute (1) wave). Â Note:Â The primary (green) wave count remains valid above the minor 2 wave low at 4306.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4546 just above the major [3]=1.50[1] target of 4528 and now a major [4] wave correction to the 23% Fib retrace of major [3] at 4183. Note minor 5 of major [3] played out as an ending diagonal. For the major [4] wave, minor W completed at 4306. The minor X wave bounce is underway and should target the 50%/62% Fib retrace of 4426/4455. Assuming minor X competes at the 50% Fib of 4426, the minor Y of major [4] wave down has target at Y=W at 4186. Â Note:Â The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the 4546 pivot.
The new alternate (red) wave count is that P1-C3 topped at 4536 as an ending diagonal for major [5]-P1-C3. The P2-C2 bear market is underway with targets at the 38% Fib of P1 = 3651 (-19.6% Bear Market) to the 50% Fib of P1 at 3369 (-25.9% Bear Market). The major [A] wave down should target the 3950 pivot area. Minor 1 of major [A] completed at 4306. The minor B wave bounce is underway with targets are the 50%/62% Fib of 4426/4455. Assuming minor 2 completes at the 50% Fib of 4426, the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is 4037. Note: The alt(red) count remains valid below 4546 and is confirmed on a break below 4057.
House Keeping:I’m going to take the rest of this week off to continue to rest and heal.
11:30 am EST:Â The SP-500 gapped up from 4454 to 4467, rose steadily to 4400…
The primary (green) count is that minor 1 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4546. The drop to 4306 was a minor 2 wave that retraced to the 50% Fib of 4302. The minor 3 wave up is underway, to a first target area a 4907, where minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1. Within, minor 3, the first minor (1) wave is likely headed for the 4546 pivot area (see 15-mini chart for details of the minute (1) wave). Â Note:Â The primary (green) wave count remains valid above the minor 2 wave low at 4306.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4546 just above the major [3]=1.50[1] target of 4528 and now a major [4] wave correction to the 23% Fib retrace of major [3] at 4183. Note minor 5 of major [3] played out as an ending diagonal. For the major [4] wave, minor A completed at 4436. The minor B wave retraced to 4487, near the 50% Fib target of 4491. Next the minor C of major [4] wave down has target at C=2.62A at 4199. Within minor C, minute (2) completed at 4306, the minute (2) target is the 50%/62% Fibs are 4398/4417. Once minute (2) completes, the minute (3) wave of minor C will break the 4306 low. Â Note:Â The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the 4546 pivot.
2:50 pm EST:Â The SP-500 gapped down from 4423 to 4402, dropped quickly to 4356, bounced to 4482 and continued dropping slowly to 4310…
The primary (green) count is that minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4546. This drop to 4310 thus far is a minor 4 wave that must remain above the minor 1 high at 4257. Â Note:Â The primary (green) wave count remains valid above the minor 1 wave high at 4257.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4546 just above the major [3]=1.50[1] target of 4528 and now a major [4] wave correction to the 23% Fib retrace of major [3] at 4183. Note minor 5 of major [3] played out as an ending diagonal. For the major [4] wave, minor A completed at 4436. The minor B wave retraced to 4487, near the 50% Fib target of 4491. Next the minor C of major [4] wave down has targets are C = 1.62A at 4309 to C=2.62A at 4199. Â Note:Â The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the 4546 peak.
11:40 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped down from 4474 to 4470, dropped slowly to 4437, and is trading at 4445…
The primary (green) count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4480. The drop from 4480 to 4368 was the minute (2) wave that ended just above the typical 50% Fib retrace of 4357. The minute (3) wave target is at 4768, where (3)=1.62(1). The minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is at 4779. Within wave minute (3), the wave i-(3) ended at 4546. The wave ii-(3) pull-back could have ended at the 62% Fib 0f 4436 or could target the 78%/88% Fibs of 4407/4389 into early next week. Once wave ii-(3) ends, the wave iii-(3) wave up will make a new all-time high above 4546. Note: The primary (green) wave count remains valid above minute (2) of minor 3 wave low at 4368. Breaking below 4368, will confirm the alternate (blue) wave count major [4] correction to the 23% Fib at 4183.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4546 just above the major [3]=1.50[1] target of 4528 and now a major [4] wave correction to the 12% to 23% Fib retrace of major [3] at 4356 to 4183. Note minor 5 of major [3] played out as an ending diagonal with minute (1) at 4394, minute (2) at 4233, minute (3) at 4480, minute (4) at 4368 and minute (5) at 4546, which completed where (5)<(3) for a 4615 maximum. Remember an ending diagonal is typical 3-3-3-3-3 wave move, so this final minute (5) wave will be an a-b-c. This a-b-c could have completed at the lowest target of c=0.50a = 4536. For the major [4] wave, minor A completed at 4436. The minor B wave retraced to 4487, near the 50% Fib target of 4491. Next the minor C of major [4] wave down should break below 4436. The possible minor C wave targets are C = 1.62A at 4309 to C=2.62A at 4199. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the ED max at 4615 and is confirmed on a break below 4368.
House Keeping: My severe left wrist injury from a bicycling accident has kept me from posting charts this week, since it happened on the morning of Tues, Sept 14th. I had reconstructive surgery on Wed, Sept 15th. I’m still experiencing a great deal of pain. Just doing this SP500 charting this morning has made the pain worse. I must rest the wrist more. Hopefully I can do a little more next week.Thanks for understanding.
12:20 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped from 4459 to 4475, rose quickly to 4493, dropped to 4454…
The primary (green) count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4480. The drop from 4480 to 4368 was the minute (2) wave that ended just above the typical 50% Fib retrace of 4357. The minute (3) wave target is at 4768, where (3)=1.62(1). The minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is at 4779.  Note: The primary (green) wave count remains valid above minute (2) of minor 3 wave low at 4368. Breaking below 4368, will confirm the alternate (blue) wave count major [4] correction to the 23% Fib at 4183.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4546 just above the major [3]=1.50[1] target of 4528 or is headed toward a typical 1.62 Fibonacci extension of major [1], which is at 4652. It’s possible that minor 5 of major [3] is playing out as an ending diagonal with minute (1) at 4394, minute (2) at 4233, minute (3) at 4480, minute (4) at 4368 and now minute (5) which must complete where (5)<(3) for a 4615 maximum. Remember an ending diagonal is typical 3-3-3-3-3 wave move, so this final minute (5) wave will be an a-b-c. This a-b-c could have completed at the lowest target of c=0.50a = 4536 or could extend to c=a at 4603.  Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the ED max at 4615.
11:35 am EST: I wanted to quickly update the 15-min and 60-min charts today (Friday, Sept 10th), because the SP-500 is close to breaking down in the alternate(blue) count. A drop below the 50% Fib target of 4457 for the primary (white/green) wave count wave ii-(3) of minor 3 of major [5]-P1, would indicate that the alternate (blue) count is gaining momentum. This 4457 area is all the potential ending diagonal lower trend-line of the alternate (blue) wave count. However, the primary (white/green) count does remain valid above 4368, which was the wave (2) of minor 3 of major [5]-P1 low.
12:20 pm EST:Â The SP-500 opened flat from 4514, rose to 4430, dropped to 4510…
I have been indicating since mid-August that until lower lows materialize (in this case below 4368) that the market is likely to continue to push higher to the P1-C3 target at 5000+ with only very small corrections along that way via the what has been labeled the alternate(blue) wave count. That particular wave count is very satisfying as the correction in April-May was an expanded flat for major [4]-P1, which alternates with the simple zig-zag of major [2]-P1 in the fall of 2020. Thus, it’s time to update the charts to reflect this.
The primary (green) count is that minute (1) of minor 3 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4480. The drop from 4480 to 4368 was the minute (2) wave that ended just above the typical 50% Fib retrace of 4357. The minute (3) wave target is at 4709, where (3)=1.38(1). The minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is at 4779. Note: The primary (green) wave count remains valid above minute (2) of minor 3 wave low at 4368. Breaking below 4368, will confirm the alternate (blue) wave count major [4] correction to the 23% Fib at 4183.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4546 just above the major [3]=1.50[1] target of 4528 or is headed toward a typical 1.62 Fibonacci extension of major [1], which is at 4652. It’s possible that minor 5 of major [3] is playing out as an ending diagonal with minute (1) at 4394, minute (2) at 4233, minute (3) at 4480, minute (4) at 4368 and now minute (5) which must complete where (5)<(3) for a 4615 maximum. Remember an ending diagonal is typical 3-3-3-3-3 wave move, so this final minute (5) wave will be an a-b-c. This a-b-c could have completed at the lowest target of c=0.50a = 4536 or could extend to c=a at 4603.  Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains valid below the ED max at 4615.
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