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6:20 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 6244 to 6254, quickly hit 6261, then drifted lower to 6201 (day’s low), rallied to 6268 (day’s high) and closed at 6263.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6742 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 target at 6394. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, the minute (3) wave completed at 6059 and the minute (4) wave completed at 5943. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the wave (5)=(1) target at 6395. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 6132.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 3 or major [1] -P5 peaked at 6302 and the minor 4 wave is underway to the 23% Fib retrace target at 6026. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid below 6302.
House Keeping: I’ll be leaving on a 2-week vacation to the Europe on the evening of Friday, July 18th and won’t return home until Saturday, August 2nd. I will try to do a few blog updates during those two weeks.
5:35 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 6268 to 6295, quickly hit 6302 (day’s high), then drifted lower to 6242 (day’s low) and closed near the low at 6244.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6742 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 target at 6394. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, the minute (3) wave completed at 6059 and the minute (4) wave completed at 5943. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the wave (5)=(1) target at 6395. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 6132.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 3 or major [1] -P5 peaked at 6302 and the minor 4 wave is underway to the 23% Fib retrace target at 6026. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid below 6302.
House Keeping: I’ll be leaving on a 2-week vacation to the Europe on the evening of Friday, July 18th and won’t return home until Saturday, August 2nd. I will try to do a few blog updates during those two weeks.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6742 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 target at 6394. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, the minute (3) wave completed at 6059 and the minute (4) wave completed at 5943. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the wave (5)=(1) target at 6395. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 6132.
The alternate (blue) wave count is that minor 3 or major [1] -P5 peaked at 6290 and the minor 4 wave is underway to the 23% Fib retrace target at 6017. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid below 6290.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6742 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 target at 6394. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, the minute (3) wave completed at 6059 and the minute (4) wave completed at 5943. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the wave (5)=(1) target at 6395. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 6132.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6742 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 target at 6394. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, the minute (3) wave completed at 6059 and the minute (4) wave completed at 5943. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the wave (5)=(1) target at 6395. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 6132.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6742 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 target at 6394. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, the minute (3) wave completed at 6059 and the minute (4) wave completed at 5943. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the wave (5)=(1) target at 6395. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 6132.
5:30 pm EST: The SP500 opened flat from 6198, dropped to 6188 (day’s low) and then rallied to hit 6227 (day’s high and new all-time high) and closed on the high at 6227.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6742 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 target at 6394. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, the minute (3) wave completed at 6059 and the minute (4) wave completed at 5943. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the wave (5)=(1) target at 6395. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5943.
House Keeping: There will be no blog update on Thursday, July 3rd and the US Market are closed on Friday, July 4th for the Independence Day Holiday. The next blog update will be Monday, July 7th. Enjoy the long Holiday weekend!
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6742 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 target at 6394. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, the minute (3) wave completed at 6059 and the minute (4) wave completed at 5943. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the wave (5)=(1) target at 6395. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5943.
6:00 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 6173 to 6191, quickly hit 6195, dropped to 6175 (day’s low) and then rallied to hit 6215 (day’s high and all-time high) and closed at 6204.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6742 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 2.0*minor 1 target at 6394. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, the minute (3) wave completed at 6059 and the minute (4) wave completed at 5943. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the wave (5)=(1) target at 6395. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5943.
The alternate (blue) wave count is P4 is taking the form an ascending triangle with the major [A]-P4 low at 4825 in early April. The major [B] wave up headed for 6253, just below where C=1.78A. The major [C] wave down should target the 5878 pivot area.
House Keeping: Quarter 2 (April 1st through June 30th) Premium Service is coming to an end today. If you are quarterly subscriber, then you will need to renew for Quarter 3 (July 1st through September 30th) via the Shop Link: » Shop PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog Note that there is also a semi-annual option for Quarters 3 & 4 (July 1st through December 31st) that will save you some money. Next blog update and final update for Q2 will be made on Monday, June 30th.
4:50 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 6094 to 6112, quickly hit 6118, dropped to 6107 (day’s low) and then rallied the rest of the day to hit 6146 (day’s high and 1 point from the all-time high at 6147) and closed at 6141.
Chart Pattern: Rectangle Pattern between 5968 and 5757 with a neckline at 5968 and measured move target at 5968 + (5968-5767) = 6169.
Daily Chart RSI and MACD:Both momentum indicators showing Negative Divergence (-DIV) at the 6059 high.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6634 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target at 6149. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, the minute (3) wave completed at 6059 and the minute (4) wave completed at 5943. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the 6149 target. Should the current rally continue above 6149, then the next target is at 6252, where minor 3=1.78*minor 2. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5943.
The alternate (blue) wave count is P4 is taking the form an ascending triangle with the major [A]-P4 low at 4825 in early April. The major [B] wave up headed for 6149, just below where C=1.62A. The major [C] wave down should target the 5767 pivot area.
House Keeping: Quarter 2 (April 1st through June 30th) Premium Service is coming to an end. If you are quarterly subscriber, then you will need to renew for Quarter 3 (July 1st through September 30th) via the Shop Link: » Shop PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog Note that there is also a semi-annual option for Quarters 3 & 4 (July 1st through December 31st) that will save you some money. Next blog update and final update for Q2 will be made on Monday, June 30th.
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