June 26th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on June 26, 2025
4:50 pm EST: The SP500 gapped up from 6094 to 6112, quickly hit 6118, dropped to 6107 (day’s low) and then rallied the rest of the day to hit 6146 (day’s high and 1 point from the all-time high at 6147) and closed at 6141.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- Chart Pattern: Rectangle Pattern between 5968 and 5757 with a neckline at 5968 and measured move target at 5968 + (5968-5767) = 6169.
- Daily Chart RSI and MACD: Both momentum indicators showing Negative Divergence (-DIV) at the 6059 high.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024): Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
- January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025): Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
- The 4-year Presidential Cycle: Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022
The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher.
https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw - SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373). https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
- Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845): https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
- Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB: https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6634 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target at 6149. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, the minute (3) wave completed at 6059 and the minute (4) wave completed at 5943. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the 6149 target. Should the current rally continue above 6149, then the next target is at 6252, where minor 3=1.78*minor 2. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5943.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is P4 is taking the form an ascending triangle with the major [A]-P4 low at 4825 in early April. The major [B] wave up headed for 6149, just below where C=1.62A. The major [C] wave down should target the 5767 pivot area.
House Keeping: Quarter 2 (April 1st through June 30th) Premium Service is coming to an end. If you are quarterly subscriber, then you will need to renew for Quarter 3 (July 1st through September 30th) via the Shop Link: » Shop PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog Note that there is also a semi-annual option for Quarters 3 & 4 (July 1st through December 31st) that will save you some money. Next blog update and final update for Q2 will be made on Monday, June 30th.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
QQQ 15-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
QQQ weekly chart:
IWM 15-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
IWM weekly chart:
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