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Chart Pattern: Rectangle Pattern between 5968 and 5757 with a neckline at 5968 and measured move target at 5968 + (5968-5767) = 6169.
Daily Chart RSI and MACD:Both momentum indicators showing Negative Divergence (-DIV) at the 6059 high.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6634 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target at 6149. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, the minute (3) wave completed at 6059 and the minute (4) wave completed at 5943. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the 6149 target. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5943.
The alternate (blue) wave count is P4 is taking the form an ascending triangle with the major [A]-P4 low at 4825 in early April. The major [B] wave up headed for 6149, just below where C=1.62A. The major [C] wave down should target the 5767 pivot area.
Chart Pattern: Rectangle Pattern between 5968 and 5757 with a neckline at 5968 and measured move target at 5968 + (5968-5767) = 6169.
Daily Chart RSI and MACD:Both momentum indicators showing Negative Divergence (-DIV) at the 6059 high.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6634 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target at 6149. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, and the minute (3) wave completed at 5968, just below where (3)=1.23(1) at 5989. The minute (4) wave completed at 5765 just above the 38% Fib retrace at 5765. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the 6149 target. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5943.
The alternate (blue) wave count is P4 is taking the form an ascending or contracting triangle with the major [A]-P4 low at 4825 in early April. The major [B] wave up completed at 6059, just below where C=1.62A at 6149. The major [C] wave down should target the 5669 pivot area. Note: The alternate (blue) count is valid below 6059.
Chart Pattern: Rectangle Pattern between 5968 and 5757 with a neckline at 5968 and measured move target at 5968 + (5968-5767) = 6169.
Daily Chart RSI and MACD:Both momentum indicators showing Negative Divergence (-DIV) at the 6059 high.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6634 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target at 6149. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, and the minute (3) wave completed at 5968, just below where (3)=1.23(1) at 5989. The minute (4) wave completed at 5765 just above the 38% Fib retrace at 5765. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the 6149 target. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5943.
The alternate (blue) wave count is P4 is taking the form an ascending or contracting triangle with the major [A]-P4 low at 4825 in early April. The major [B] wave up completed at 6059, just below where C=1.62A at 6149. The major [C] wave down should target the 5669 pivot area. The alternate (blue) count is valid below 6059.
House Keeping: The US Markets are closed on Thursday, June 18th, in observance the Juneteenth Holiday. On summer Friday’s I normally don’t post. So unless that is large market change on Friday, June 19th, the next blog post will on Monday, June 23rd.
7:00 pm EST: The SP500 gapped down from 6033 to 6015, dropped to 6006, rallied to hit 6023 (day’s high), dropped to 5975 (day’s low) and closed at 5982.
Chart Pattern: Rectangle Pattern between 5968 and 5757 with a neckline at 5968 and measured move target at 5968 + (5968-5767) = 6169.
Daily Chart RSI and MACD:Negative Divergence at the 6059 high.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6634 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target at 6149. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, and the minute (3) wave completed at 5968, just below where (3)=1.23(1) at 5989. The minute (4) wave completed at 5765 just above the 38% Fib retrace at 5765. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the 6149 target. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5943.
The alternate (blue) wave count is P4 is taking the form an ascending or contracting triangle with the major [A]-P4 low at 4825 in early April. The major [B] wave up completed at 6059, just below where C=1.62A at 6149. The major [C] wave down should target the 5669 pivot area. The alternate (blue) count is valid below 6059.
Chart Pattern: Rectangle Pattern between 5968 and 5757 with a neckline at 5968 and measured move target at 5968 + (5968-5767) = 6169.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6634 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target at 6149. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, and the minute (3) wave completed at 5968, just below where (3)=1.23(1) at 5989. The minute (4) wave completed at 5765 just above the 38% Fib retrace at 5765. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the 6149 target. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5767.
The alternate (blue) wave count is P4 is taking the form an ascending or contracting triangle with the major [A]-P4 low at 4825 in early April. The major [B] wave up completed at 6059, just below where C=1.62A at 6149. The major [C] wave down should target the 5669 pivot area. The alternate (blue) count is valid below 6059.
7:15 pm EST: The SP500 gapped down from 6023 to 6013, quickly hit 6003 (day’s low), rose up to hit 6045 (day’s high), dropped to 6025 and closed on the high at 6045.
Chart Pattern: Rectangle Pattern between 5968 and 5757 with a neckline at 5968 and measured move target at 5968 + (5968-5767) = 6169.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6634 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target at 6149. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, and the minute (3) wave completed at 5968, just below where (3)=1.23(1) at 5989. The minute (4) wave completed at 5765 just above the 38% Fib retrace at 5765. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the 6149 target. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5767.
The alternate (blue) wave count is P4 is taking the form an ascending or contracting triangle with the major [A]-P4 low at 4825 in early April. The major [B] wave up targeting 6149, where C=1.62A. The major [C] wave down should target the 5669 pivot area.
Chart Pattern: Rectangle Pattern between 5968 and 5757 with a neckline at 5968 and measured move target at 5968 + (5968-5767) = 6169.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6634 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target at 6149. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, and the minute (3) wave completed at 5968, just below where (3)=1.23(1) at 5989. The minute (4) wave completed at 5765 just above the 38% Fib retrace at 5765. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the 6149 target. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5767.
The alternate (blue) wave count is P4 is taking the form an ascending or contracting triangle with the major [A]-P4 low at 4825 in early April. The major [B] wave up targeting 6149, where C=1.62A. The major [C] wave down should target the 5669 pivot area.
Chart Pattern: Rectangle Pattern between 5968 and 5757 with a neckline at 5968 and measured move target at 5968 + (5968-5767) = 6169.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6634 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target at 6149. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, and the minute (3) wave completed at 5968, just below where (3)=1.23(1) at 5989. The minute (4) wave completed at 5765 just above the 38% Fib retrace at 5765. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the 6149 target. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5767.
The alternate (blue) wave count is P4 is taking the form an ascending or contracting triangle with the major [A]-P4 low at 4825 in early April. The major [B] wave up targeting 6149, where C=1.62A. The major [C] wave down should target the 5669 pivot area.
Chart Pattern: Rectangle Pattern between 5968 and 5757 with a neckline at 5968 and measured move target at 5968 + (5968-5767) = 6169.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6634 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target at 6149. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, and the minute (3) wave completed at 5968, just below where (3)=1.23(1) at 5989. The minute (4) wave completed at 5765 just above the 38% Fib retrace at 5765. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the 6149 target. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5767.
The alternate (blue) wave count is P4 is taking the form an ascending or contracting triangle with the major [A]-P4 low at 4825 in early April. The major [B] wave up likely completed at 5999, where C=1.38A. The major [C] wave down should target the 5505 pivot area.
House Keeping: I will out of town visiting family Friday, June 6th through late evening Tuesday, June 10th. The next blog post will be very late on Tuesday, June 10th or Wednesday, June 11th.
Chart Pattern: Rectangle Pattern between 5968 and 5757 with a neckline at 5968 and measured move target at 5968 + (5968-5767) = 6169.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
Back-to-Back +20% Years (2023 & 2024):Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/187595896308022519
January Affect (Jan 31st, 2025):Positive January (Above 5881): SP500 on average gains +16.9% for the year = 6875 with the SP500 January close of 6040, well above 5881.https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1885324596485791857
The 4-year Presidential Cycle:Seasonality has been spot-on since the mid-term lows in late 2022 The first quarter (Q1-2025) of the first year of a new President is typically a sideways to slightly down move. Then in Q2, Q3, and Q4 of year 1, the SP500 tends to head higher. https://x.com/granthawkridge/status/1886341941987598847?s=46&t=gg5AXDQK37ob5YJ37ot1dw
SP500 Historical Performance After a > 4% Loss (Apr 3rd, 2025) and then > 5% Loss (April 4th, 2025) to a 6-month low (5070). There are 8 historical cases going back to the year 1929. In all 8 cases (100% historical probability) the SP500 was up 6-months later (early Oct 2025) by an average of +25.7% (Target at 6373).https://x.com/jasongoepfert/status/1908247812648952114
Strong Breadth (Wed April 9th, 2025 with SP500 closed at 5463): Massive reversal with strong breadth! Over 97% of S&P 500 stocks are Up today, after closing at 200-day lows yesterday. What the S&P did next: 9 months later (Nov 9th, 2025) 9 of 9 (100%) historical cases with an average +25.3% gain (target 6845):https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1910034281079988424
Zweig Breadth Thrust (ZBT, April 24th, 2025): ZBT was confirmed on Thursday, April 24th!!! This is extremely Bullish for the SP500 in the 6 month and 12 month time frames. Historically Up 100% of the time (16 of 16 cases) by +16.3% (SP500 6379 by Oct 24, 2025) and +23.8% (SP500 6790 by April 24th, 2026). Link the SP500 performance AFTER a ZTB:https://x.com/SubuTrade/status/1915492957882405235
Wave Count(s):
The primary (white/green) wave count is that the P4 wave took the form of a major [A]-[B]-[C], Zig-Zag that held the 50% Fib retrace (4820) at 4835. The P5 wave up is underway with the P5=P1 target at 7462. The major [1]-P5 wave should target the 6634 area. The minor 1 wave up of major [1]-P5 completed at 5481. The minor 2 wave completed at 5102, just above the 62% Fib of 5080. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target at 6149. Within minor 3, wave minute (1) completed at 5554, wave minute (2) completed at 5433, and the minute (3) wave completed at 5968, just below where (3)=1.23(1) at 5989. The minute (4) wave completed at 5765 just above the 38% Fib retrace at 5765. The minute (5) wave of minor 3 is underway towards the 6149 target. Note: The primary (white/green) count as shown is valid above 5554.
The alternate (blue) wave count is P4 is taking the form an ascending triangle with the major [A]-P4 low at 4825 in early April. The major [B] wave up is underway targeting the all-time high at 6147, where minor C=1.62A at 6149.
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