January 7th, 2025: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on January 7, 2025
11:45 am EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5975 to 5993, rose to hit 6000, dropped to 5926, rallied to 5959…
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality (Dec 31st): The SP500 closed in the red 4 consecutive days to end the year 2024. This has only happened 5 other times in the past 100 years. Each time the SP500 rallied each week of January with an average gain of +6.2% by end of January. Projection 5881 + 0.062*5881 = 6245 https://x.com/subutrade/status/1874135463935856814
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years: Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1875958963080225199
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV completed at 5830, just below the 38% Fib retrace or minor 3 at 5835. The minor 5 wave up is underway and will complete major [5]-P3-C3 at 6234, where major [5]=[1]. There is a potential double bottom at 5830 which targets 6370 on a break and close above 6050. Within minor 5, wave minute (1) completed at 6021. The minute (2) wave thus far has retraced to the 50% Fib at 5926. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 5830.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV played out as a Zig-Zag to 5830, just above where the C=A target at 5782. The major [5]=[1] target is at 6945. The minor 1 wave of major [5] is underway and should target the 6250 area. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid above 5830.
- The alternate (red) count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV is playing out to a 23% Fib retracement at 5641. Major [4] is taking the form of a Zig-Zag with minor A complete at 5832 and minor B complete at 6050. The minor C leg down is underway with a C=1.62*A target at 5616. There is also a potential head and shoulders (H&S) topping pattern fits with this alt(red) count. The head is at 6100, and neckline is at 5832. On a break and close below 5832, the H&S target is at 5564. Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 6050.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 4-hr chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
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