January 6th, 2025: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on January 6, 2025
5:15 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5942 to 5982, rose to hit 6021 (day’s high), dropped to 5960 (day’s low) and closed at 5975.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality (Dec 31st): The SP500 closed in the red 4 consecutive days to end the year 2024. This has only happened 5 other times in the past 100 years. Each time the SP500 rallied each week of January with an average gain of +6.2% by end of January. Projection 5881 + 0.062*5881 = 6245 https://x.com/subutrade/status/1874135463935856814
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Back-to-Back +20% Years: Since ’50, 21 times S&P 500 was up 20% (price only, so not total return) and next yr higher 81.0% of time and up 10.6% on avg. After back-to-back 20% yrs? Up 20.0% on avg and higher 4 out of 4. Avg yr up 9.5% and higher 72.0% of time. https://x.com/RyanDetrick/status/1875958963080225199
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 4 of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV completed at 5830, just below the 38% Fib retrace or minor 3 at 5835. The minor 5 wave up is underway and will complete major [5]-P3-C3 at 6234, where major [5]=[1]. There is a potential double bottom at 5830 which targets 6370 on a break and close above 6050. Note: The primary (white/green) wave count is valid above 5830.
- The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV played out as a Zig-Zag to 5830, just above where the C=A target at 5782. The major [5]=[1] target is at 6945. The minor 1 wave of major [5] is underway and should target the 6250 area. Note: The alternate (blue) wave count is valid above 5830.
- The alternate (red) count is that major [4]-P3-C3 of SCV is playing out to a 23% Fib retracement at 5641. Major [4] is taking the form of a Zig-Zag with minor A complete at 5832 and minor B complete at 6050. The minor C leg down is underway with a C=1.62*A target at 5616. There is also a potential head and shoulders (H&S) topping pattern fits with this alt(red) count. The head is at 6100, and neckline is at 5832. On a break and close below 5832, the H&S target is at 5564. Note: The alternate (red) count is valid below 6050.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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