June 17th, 2024: SP-500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on June 17, 2024
3:40 pm EST: The SP-500 opened flat from 5431, quickly dropped 5320 (day’s low), then rallied the rest of the day to hit 5488 (day’s high, NEW ALL-TIME HIGH) and closed at 5473.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: The NYMO closed at -50 on Friday, June 14th and has yet to confirm this minor 3 bull wave. The NYMO needs to close above +20 and then above +40 to confirm.
- NYSE A-D Cumulative ($NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com): The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative is still well below its all-time high hit when the SP500 minor 1 wave reached 5342. This is a non-confirmation of the minor 3 bull wave. Will need to see the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative break-out to an all-time new high soon to confirm the minor 3 bull wave.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec 2023, Jan and Feb 2024), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV completed at 5192. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a Minor 3 = 1.62*Minor 1 target of 5820. The minute (1) of minor 3 should target the 5500 area. Within minute (1), wave i-(1) reached 5302. Wave ii-(1) pulled back to near the 62% Fib at 5234. The wave iii-(1) reached 5447, where iii=2.0i. The wave iv-(1) retraced to 5403. Now the wave v-(1) up is underway with the wave v=i target at 5513. Assuming the minute (1) or minor 3 wave completes at 5513, then the minute (2) of minor 3 wave should retrace to the 50% Fib at 5353. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 5192.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
QQQ daily chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
IWM daily chart:
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