June 13th, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on June 13, 2024
5:40 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 5420 to 5435, quickly hit 5442 (day’s high, dropped to 5403 (day’s low) and rallied to 5439 and closed at 5434.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- NYMO: The NYMO closed at -16 on Wednesday June 12th and has yet to confirm this minor 3 bull wave. The NYMO needs to close above +20 and then above +40 to confirm.
- NYSE A-D Cumulative ($NYAD | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com): The NYSE A-D Line Cumulative is still well below its all-time high hit when the SP500 minor 1 wave reached 5342. This is a non-confirmation of the minor 3 bull wave. Will need to see the NYSE A-D Line Cumulative break-out to an all-time new high soon to confirm the minor 3 bull wave.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March, a choppy Q2 (Apr-June) and finally a big rally into year end.
- Historical Stat: The SP500 was up for the 3 months (Dec 2023, Jan and Feb 2024), closing February at 5095. Since the year 1930 the SP-500 has been positive the next year in 25 of 25 cases (100%) with an average again of 16% (5095 => 5910 Target). The average draw-down form the February close is -3.7% (5095 => 4906). Wayne Whaley on X: “A 25-0 NEXT YEAR (MARCH-FEBRUARY) – WHEN DECEMBER, JANUARY AND FEBRUARY ARE EACH POSITIVE https://t.co/tRtvWJP7lt” / X (twitter.com)
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) wave count is that minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C3 of SCV completed at 5192. The minor 3 wave up is underway with a Minor 3 = 1.62*Minor 1 target of 5820. The minute (1) of minor 3 should target the 5450 area. Within minute (1), wave i-(1) reached 5302. Wave ii-(1) pulled back to near the 62% Fib at 5234. The wave iii-(1) reached 5375, where iii=1.23i. The wave iv-(1) retraced to 5327, near the 23% Fib 5331. Now the wave v-(1) up is underway with the wave v=i target at 5437. The minute (1) or minor 3 wave may have completed at 5447 or could climb slightly higher to the bull flag target at 5497 (alt blue labels). Assuming the minute (1) or minor 3 wave did complete at 5447, then the minute (2) of minor 3 wave should retrace to the 50% Fib at 5320. Note: The primary (white/green) count is valid above 5192.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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