February 12th, 2024: SP500, QQQ and IWM Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on February 12, 2024
4:40 pm EST: New All-Time High 5048! The SP-500 opened flat from 5026, rose to hit 5048 (day’s high), dropped to 5017 and closed at 5022.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- BPSPX (https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX): On Wednesday, January 17th the SP500 Bullish Percentage Index ($BPSPX) closed at 69.80. A close below 70 after closing above 80 typically signals a significant correction is underway. Three weeks later the $BPSPX continues to hold below the critical 70 level.
- NYMO: The past 6 weeks the NYMO has been closing lower as the SP500 has been closing higher. That’s a negative divergence on the NYMO wrt to the SP500 and that’s a potential negative for future SP500 price action.
- VIX: The past 6 weeks VIX has been closing higher as the SP500 has been closing higher. That’s a positive divergence on the VIX wrt to the SP500 and that’s a potential negative for the SP500 future price action.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March and a big rally into year end.
SP-500 Seasonality for 2024:
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P3-C3 completed at 4793 in late December 2023 and minor 2 retraced to 4682 in mid-January in 2024. The minor 3 wave is underway should continue to grind higher during year 2024 to a target at 5798, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. (Note: that on the daily chart the large Cup & Handle Pattern has a target at 5722 on the break above 4607). Within minor 3, the first minute (1) may have completed at 5048, where v=1.62i. Once minute (1) ends, the minute (2) wave pull-back would take the SP-500 down to a 38%/50% Fib retrace in the 4909 to 4865 area before minute (3) or minor 3 heads much higher.
- The alternate (blue) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P3-C3 is nearing completion at 5000. The final minute (5) or minor 1 wave should complete at a target, (5)=1.23(1)=5035. Within minute (5), wave i=(5) reached 4802, wave ii-(5) dropped to 4715, wave iii-(5) completed at 4931 and the wave iv-(5) completed at 4845. The final wave v-(5) of minor 1 up likely completed at 5048. Once the minor 1 wave ends, the minor 2 wave should retrace to the 23%/38% Fib targets at 4831/4693.
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
QQQ 60-min chart:
IWM 60-min chart:
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