February 9th, 2024: SP-500 Chart Update
Posted by pugsma on February 9, 2024
5:45 pm EST: New All-Time High 5030! The SP-500 gapped up from 4997 to 4999, then rose steadily all day to hit 5030 (day’s high) and closed at 5026.
Key Technical Indicators (Short to Intermediate Term) Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
- BPSPX (https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPSPX): On Wednesday, January 17th the SP500 Bullish Percentage Index ($BPSPX) closed at 69.80. A close below 70 after closing above 80 typically signals a significant correction is underway. Three weeks later the $BPSPX continues to hold below the critical 70 level.
- NYMO: The past 6 weeks the NYMO has been closing lower as the SP500 has been closing higher. That’s a negative divergence on the NYMO wrt to the SP500 and that’s a potential negative for future SP500 price action.
- VIX: The past 6 weeks VIX has been closing higher as the SP500 has been closing higher. That’s a positive divergence on the VIX wrt to the SP500 and that’s a potential negative for the SP500 future price action.
Key Technical Indicators (Intermediate to Long-Term):
- Golden Cross (2-2-23): 50-day SMA (3953) closed above the 200-day SMA (3951).
- Zweig Breadth Trust (ZBT) (3-31-23 and again on 11-3-23): The ZBT signal triggered on Friday, 3-31-23 and again on Friday, 11-3-23. This ZBT signal historically has produced an average SP500 of +24% over the next year with 100% probability! ZBT Chart 25 Year Link: !BINYBT | SharpCharts | StockCharts.com
- SP500 Seasonality: The 4-year US Presidential Election Year Cycle shows a peak in late January to early February, then a shallow drop into mid-March and a big rally into year end.
SP-500 Seasonality for 2024:
Wave Count(s):
- The primary (white/green) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P3-C3 completed at 4793 in late December 2023 and minor 2 retraced to 4682 in mid-January in 2024. The minor 3 wave is underway should continue to grind higher during year 2024 to a target at 5798, where minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1. (Note: that on the daily chart the large Cup & Handle Pattern has a target at 5722 on the break above 4607). Within minor 3, the first minute (1) should near complete near 5039, where v=1.62i. Once minute (1) ends, the minute (2) wave pull-back would take the SP-500 down to a 38%/50% Fib retrace in the 4903 to 4862 area before minute (3) or minor 3 heads much higher.
- The alternate (blue) count is that minor 1 of major [3]-P3-C3 is nearing completion at 5000. The final minute (5) or minor 1 wave should complete at a target, (5)=1.23(1)=5035. Within minute (5), wave i=(5) reached 4802, wave ii-(5) dropped to 4715, wave iii-(5) completed at 4931 and the wave iv-(5) completed at 4845. The final wave v-(5) of minor 1 up is underway to the 5035 target. Once the minor 1 wave ends, the minor 2 wave should retrace to the 23%/38% Fib targets at 4821/4682.
Have a great weekend!
SP-500 15-min chart:
SP-500 60-min chart:
SP-500 daily chart:
SP-500 weekly chart:
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