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October 1st, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on October 1, 2021

6:45 pm EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4306 to 4317, quickly hit 4331, dropped to the day’s low 4289, then rallied to 4375 and closed at 4357.

The primary (green) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4546, just above the major [3]=1.50[1] target of 4528. The major [4] wave correction towards the 23% Fib retrace of major [3] at 4183 is underway. For the major [4] wave, minor W completed at 4306. The minor X wave completed 4465, just above the 62% Fib retrace 4455. The minor Y of major [4] wave down completed today at 4289, near the Y=0.78W = 4278 .  Note: The primary (green) wave count remains as labeled remains valid above the major [4] low at 4289.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4546, just above the major [3]=1.50[1] target of 4528. The major [4] wave correction towards the 23% Fib retrace of major [3] at 4183 is underway. For the major [4] wave, minor W completed at 4306. The minor X wave completed 4465, just above the 62% Fib retrace 4455. The minor Y of major [4] wave down is underway and has target at Y=W at 4225.  Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains as labeled remains valid below the minor X wave high of 4465.

The alternate (red) wave count is that P1-C3 topped at 4536 as an ending diagonal for major [5]-P1-C3. The P2-C2 bear market is underway with targets at the 38% Fib of P1 = 3651 (-19.6% Bear Market) to the 50% Fib of P1 at 3369 (-25.9% Bear Market). The major [A] wave down should target the 3950 pivot area. Minor 1 of major [A] completed at 4306. The minor B wave bounce is underway with targets are the 50%/62% Fib of 4426/4455. Assuming minor 2 completes at the 50% Fib of 4426, the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is 4037. Note: The alternate (red) count remains valid below 4546 and is confirmed on a break below 4057.

Have a great weekend!

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

7 Responses to “October 1st, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    Subscribers: even though I didn’t really have the time this evening, I decided that an SP500 chart update was important enough to take the time to do it.

    Have a great weekend!

  2. pugsma said

    I really must appreciate you subscribers. I just did a quick GBTC daily chart update in the 2021 CCA. Everything looks great on that one…

  3. pugsma said

    LT Bulls are going up love this…

    https://twitter.com/macrocharts/status/1444255846888738818?s=21

  4. pugsma said

    Love this chart showing the generational wealth as a % share of the total stock market value.

    Baby Boomer wealth % is now in decline, while Gen X and Millennials is rapidly expanding.

    I was born 1966 to the Greatest Generation parents (Dad was a WWII Navy Vet). My dad was 45 and mom 39 when is born. So while Im Technically a Baby Boomer by my parents, I’m on the lower fringe of Generation X years. I’m really a Gen X is how I grew up, high school 1980-84, college 1984-88.

    https://twitter.com/callum_thomas/status/1444409792370331648?s=21

  5. pugsma said

    So you ask “where will the new money come from” to drive the bull wave of Cycle 3 (C4) wave of Super Cycle V (SC-V) to 8000+ on the SP500?

    Well the is $3.3T into bonds funds vs $0.36T in equity funds. As the improve economy and IS Fed monetary policy tightens, interest rate will rise to normal (3 to 4% 10 year bond) and bond prices will drop. More money will come out of bonds and into stocks.

    https://twitter.com/callum_thomas/status/1444403774571745281?s=21

  6. pugsma said

    Updated the JPM daily chart in the 2021 CCA: https://pugsma.com/custom-chart-archive-2021/

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