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September 30th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on September 30, 2021

10:10 am EST: The SP-500 gapped up from 4360 to 4370, rose to 4383…

The primary (green) count is that minor 1 of major [5]-P1-C3 topped at 4546. The drop to 4306 was a minor 2 wave that retraced to the 50% Fib of 4302. The minor 3 wave up is underway, to a first target area a 4907, where minor 3 = 1.23*minor 1. Within, minor 3, the first minor (1) wave competed at 4465. Wave (2) retraced to 4346 near the 78% Fib of 4341. Now wave (3) of minor is likely headed for the 4763, where (3)=2.62(1), see 15-min and 60-min charts for details.  Note: The primary (green) wave count remains valid above the minor 2 wave low at 4306.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [3]-P1-C3 topped at 4546 just above the major [3]=1.50[1] target of 4528 and now a major [4] wave correction to the 23% Fib retrace of major [3] at 4183. Note minor 5 of major [3] played out as an ending diagonal. For the major [4] wave, minor W completed at 4306. The minor X wave completed 4465, just above the 62% Fib retrace 4455. The minor Y of major [4] wave down is underway and has target at Y=W at 4225.  Note: The alternate (blue) wave count remains as labeled remains valid below 4465 or below 4546 IF the minor X of minor [4] wave were to stretch above 4465.

The alternate (red) wave count is that P1-C3 topped at 4536 as an ending diagonal for major [5]-P1-C3. The P2-C2 bear market is underway with targets at the 38% Fib of P1 = 3651 (-19.6% Bear Market) to the 50% Fib of P1 at 3369 (-25.9% Bear Market). The major [A] wave down should target the 3950 pivot area. Minor 1 of major [A] completed at 4306. The minor B wave bounce is underway with targets are the 50%/62% Fib of 4426/4455. Assuming minor 2 completes at the 50% Fib of 4426, the minor 3 = 1.62*minor 1 target is 4037. Note: The alt(red) count remains valid below 4546 and is confirmed on a break below 4057.

House keeping: 

  1. The Premium Service (SP500, QQQ, IWM) for Q3-2021 (Jul-Sep) is coming to end on Thursday Sept 30th. If you are are a quarterly subscriber, you can continue for Q4-2021 (Oct-Dec) by making a payment via the PUG Stock Market Analysis Shop: » Premium Service Quarter 4 (Q4) 2021 Subscription (3 months, Oct-Dec) PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC | Technical Analysis Blog (pugsma.com)
  2. I‘m heading out of town for a long weekend to visit my grand children in St Louis. The next blog update will be on Monday, Oct 4th.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

68 Responses to “September 30th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. Preston Morris said

    Update on gbtc?

  2. pugsma said

    Some very washed out sentiment readings today;

    AAII Weekly Sentiment; Only 28% Bulls vs 41% Bears (historically one of the most bearish ever)

    NAAIM (Active Investment Managers) Only 55% Long

  3. pugsma said

    But hey Mercury has just gone Retro-grade into Libra until mid-October.

    So maybe pagan astrology is more critical to the markets behavior than investor sentiment. LOL

    Anyway I’ll be playing in a World Series of Poker event in Vegas the week of Oct 18th. Maybe that will be the cause of a market crash. 😉

  4. pugsma said

    S500 Bear flag playing out to perfection here, Target 4307 as mentioned when SP500 was up at 4370 earlier this morning.

    We’ll see if a double bottom shot 4306 can me set…

    • Sagar Patel said

      Positive divergences setting up on 15 and 60 min

    • pugsma said

      Breaking the 4306 double bottom area will likely produce a swift drop to the Minor C=A measured move target of 4225 to complete major [4]-P1-C3 per alt (blue).

      That’s a load the boat target for me. Lots of power still available.

      • pugsma said

        I really would love to see that washout to 4225-4183 to really get the NAAIM positioning and AAII weekly sentiment off the charts negative into next Thursday Oct 7th.

  5. pugsma said

    Oh here’s some irony, I’ll be at the WS of Poker tournament on the exact day the day the US Government is set to default in its debt, Oct 18th.

    Can’t wait to see the market down 1000 points on that Monday morning. LOL

  6. pugsma said

    Would ya’ all stop buying the SP500 here at 4320 for the next hour, so I can get a better price near 4306 or slightly below. LOL

  7. Robert Warmington said

    Does any drop below 4306 activate the Alt (blue) or can it go slightly below and reverse to keep the White active?

    • pugsma said

      Alt (blue) below 4306 will take over. I could even place major [4] at 4306 now. It won’t make much difference in the final result for the P1-C3 top mid to late next year.

  8. Robert Warmington said

    Hello Alt (blue) and hello to 5000 around June of 2022. Thank you King.

    • pugsma said

      SP500 low on Sept 20th 4305.91

      SP500 low on Sept 30th 4306.24

      Primary (white/green) count has labeled with minor 2 low at 4305.91 is STILL Valid.

      Also remember primary (white/green) count minor 2 of major [5] is ultimately valid above major [4] low at 4057.

  9. pugsma said

    FYI bear flag from 4346 to 4385 called again 4470 this morning, with target of 4307 hit perfectly!

    🙂 $

    • pugsma said

      Now double bottom at 4306 with NYMO +DIV has a target of 4385 + (4385-4306) = 4464. Could be there by my Monday EOD update.

      • Sagar Patel said

        In addition to positive S&P divergence on 15 and 60 min, S&P versus VIX has positive divergence with respect to 9/28

        On 9/28:
        S&P close 4352.63; low 4346.33
        VIX close 23.25; high 24.82

        *Today 9/30:
        S&P close 4307.54; low 4306.24
        VIX close 23.14; high 24.71

        Also, Cobra always states that a bearish engulfing candle at 10 day high is bullish for the next day…wonder if this is true for monthly…we just had the mother of all bearish engulfing candles after pretty much going up 10 straight months…this along with Ryan Detricks tweet about bullish October months during odd years could set up for big bull October


        • pugsma said

          Yep and October is my B-day month. The SP500 Gods only obey me. SP500 above 4546 by Halloween ! 🙂

        • pugsma said

          And we got a SP500 close below it’s lower BB at 4307 vs 4311. That’s an SP-500 Buy Trigger.

        • Sagar Patel said

          And just like that, we got our due 5 % pull back. Month of September down 4.76%. We closed the month right on top of the Monthly EMA (5) of 4307.09; which has provided support for this whole bull run since closing above it in 5/2020

      • Russell Bailey said

        By Monday, wow! Small weekly calls for next week could pay out nicely

  10. pugsma said

    The TELL: VIX only up +2.57% today!

  11. pugsma said

    The 2nd TELL: $CPC closed Sept 30th above 1.0 at 1.07. The same $CPC level as the first 4306 bottom set on Sept 20th.

  12. pugsma said

    Run BTC run…

  13. pugsma said

    The 2nd mouse now has the same amount as cheese as the first mouse. Mouse 3 waiting for any scraps that remain.

  14. pugsma said

    REGN is great example of how the tool of Elliott Wave Technical Analysis in the hands of a Master Practitioner, is predictive not reactive to ”
    the news”!

    REGN Chart from August 18th, 2021 in the Customer Chart Archive Service. Notice that I was forecasting a major [1] to at $660 to $680 and then a major [5] 50% Fib retrace to $550. Today REGN will open at $580 area.


  15. Jim Guthery said

    Dropped below 4306 here should we be concerned?

  16. Robert Warmington said

    Looks like the blue count is underway, but we are still above the wave 4 low, so green is still alive. As you said, a move below 4306 will bring on a power move down towards 4225, where you will be in there with both hands and feet ….. You are the king. no hand holding here.

  17. pugsma said

    IBB daily chart update for Oct 1st added to 2021 CCA.

  18. pugsma said

    Wave count Unification and simplification are the themes for today’s drop below 4306 on the SP500. The result is beautiful and satisfying.

    • dgs said

      Care to elaborate (please)?

      • pugsma said

        Should not be hard to figure out.

        What’s wave degree has the IWM been in since March?

        • Sagar Patel said

          Glad you brought up IWM. From my understanding from your charts, wave [3] ended in aggressive up move into March at 233. Wave [4] ended in July at 209. We’ve had a series of 1-2s and are now starting wave (3) of 3 of [5] of P1. Seasonality favors small caps into end of year over all other indices.. Also, we have the possibility of closing above all SMAs today…100 day SMA is the highest currently at 222.46. If we want to get real aggressive and turn the weekly bar green, we need a close above 223.05…Basically small caps, aka soldiers, will lead us up

    • pugsma said

      On the Monday Oct 4th blog update I will unify the wave counts and charts of SP500, QQQ and IWM to show the completion of the major [4]-P1-C3 wave.

      Giddy Up!

      That was for this’d here who need their hands held. LOL

      • Victoria Hubbard said

        Thanks Steve! Looking forward to Monday update. Have a great weekend and continued healing!

      • Sagar Patel said

        Just an update about my comment yesterday about October bullish implications of a “bearish engulfing month” for September, especially for members here who don’t have access to Cobra’s site: as per his member market outlook: “If the next week reveals that the low today is not the low, bulls might not need worry because September made a monthly bearish engulfing which means October has 83% chances to close up with profit factor at wopping 9.2!”

  19. pugsma said

    It’s good to be the King!

    Enjoy your weekend!

  20. Robert Warmington said

    I just want to say congratulations King for the great buy call on the close yesterday. Whether the major 4 low is in or it needs a little more teasing, it doesn’t matter. OFF TOPIC : A few years ago I went on a round the world cruise with Barry Shulman, the European World Series of Poker Champion. We played poker on every sea day of the cruise with 8 other people. What a great guy and what a blast……

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