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January 12th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 12, 2021

4:50 pm EST: The SP-500 price opened flat from 3800, rose to days high at 3811, then dropped quickly to the days low of 3777 and rallied to close 3801.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed up at +10.  The NYMO has struggled to re-gain and hold above the zero line since the dip to -32 before Christmas.  Today the NYMO rallied above the zero line to near +10 with a flat SP500, showing good market breadth.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -3.1% at 23.33.  The VIX has been increasing as the SP-500 has increasing, which is a positive VIX divergence and is potential negative for the SP500 future price action.
  3. Chart Pattern:  Bull Flag between 3827 and 3777 with target of 3877.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed at a new all-time high today with the SP500 closing below its all-time close high of 3825, from Friday, Jan 8th. This is positive for short-term SP500 price action, which should lead to news highs above 3825.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave up is underway to a target at major [5]=[1] 3972. Minor 3 should target 3916, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 completed at 3646 and wave minute (2) at 3512. Wave minute (3) up competed at 3770, where (3)=0.62(1) target at 3767. The minute (4) wave low was at 3663, just below the 38% Fib at 3672. The minute (5) of minor 3 up to new all-time highs should be underway. Within minute (5), wave i ended at 3738, wave ii at 3705 and the wave iii=2.62*i target is 3855. Wave iv-(5) should correct to a 23% Fib at 3821 and then v-(5) will complete from 3896 to 3916. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the minute (4) low at 3663, but staying above the 3770 pivot now is important for the continuation rally to 3916.

The alternate (blue) is that major [3]-P1-C3 wave will top near the major [3]=1.62[1] target of 4003, where [3]=1.62[1]. Once major [3] completes, the major [4] targets are the 23%/38% Fibs at 3718/3533. Once major [4] completes, the major [5]=[1] targets are 4296/4481.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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