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January 13th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 13, 2021

4:40 pm EST: The SP-500 price opened flat from 3800, dropped to days low at 3792, then rallied most of the day to hit the days high at 3821 and closed 3810.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down near -5.  The NYMO has struggled to re-gain and hold above the zero line since the dip to -32 before Christmas.  
  2. VIX: The VIX closed down -4.8% at 22.21.
  3. Chart Pattern:  Bull Flag between 3827 and 3777 with target of 3877.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed at a new all-time high Tues, Jan 12th with the SP500 closing at 3800 below its all-time close high of 3825, from Friday, Jan 8th. This is positive for short-term SP500 price action, which should lead to news highs above 3825.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave up is underway to a target at major [5]=[1] 3972. Minor 3 should target 3916, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 completed at 3646 and wave minute (2) at 3512. Wave minute (3) up competed at 3770, where (3)=0.62(1) target at 3767. The minute (4) wave low was at 3663, just below the 38% Fib at 3672. The minute (5) of minor 3 up to new all-time highs should be underway. Within minute (5), wave i ended at 3738, wave ii at 3705 and the wave iii=2.62*i target is 3855. Wave iv-(5) should correct to a 23% Fib at 3821 and then v-(5) will complete from 3896 to 3916. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the minute (4) low at 3663, but staying above the 3770 pivot now is important for the continuation rally to 3916.

The alternate (blue) is that major [3]-P1-C3 wave will top near the major [3]=1.62[1] target of 4003, where [3]=1.62[1]. Once major [3] completes, the major [4] targets are the 23%/38% Fibs at 3718/3533. Once major [4] completes, the major [5]=[1] targets are 4296/4481.

SP-500 5-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

11 Responses to “January 13th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    The people who run the AAII Weekly Sentiment Survey have been struggling the past two weeks with data accuracy.

    Last week they first reported Bullish Sentiment had dropped to 37% then latter corrected it to 54%

    Now this week we have a 100% Bulls initial report!

    Sentiment Survey Historical Data
    Reported Date Bullish Neutral Bearish
    January 13: 100.0% % %
    January 6: 54.0% 19.4% 26.6%
    December 30: 46.1% 27.1% 26.8%
    December 23: 43.6% 34.4% 22.0%
    December 16: 43.4% 30.3% 26.3%
    December 9: 48.1% 25.1% 26.9%
    December 2: 49.1% 28.3% 22.7%
    November 25: 47.3% 25.3% 27.5%
    November 18: 44.4% 29.3% 26.4%
    November 11: 55.8% 19.3% 24.9%
    November 4: 38.0% 30.6% 31.5%
    October 28: 35.3% 29.4% 35.3%
    October 21: 35.7% 31.2% 33.0%
    October 14: 34.8% 29.5% 35.7%
    October 7: 34.7% 26.3% 39.0%
    September 30: 26.2% 30.7% 43.1%
    September 23: 24.9% 29.1% 46.0%
    September 16: 32.0% 27.6% 40.4%
    September 9: 23.7% 27.8% 48.5%
    September 2: 30.8% 27.4% 41.8%
    August 26: 32.1% 28.3% 39.6%
    August 19: 30.4% 27.2% 42.4%

  2. pugsma said

    Just put PLTR into the 2021 Custom Chart Archive.

    And I gave it out as free setup on Twitter.

    I will trading a lot more individual stocks during 2021 than I did during 2020, so I’ll be active charting stocks for the 2021 CCA Service. I 2020 was an easy money long to trade the indices (SPY, QQQ, IWM). 2021 should be much more difficult in the indices, so looking for other areas to profit.

    https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket/status/1349739732893396992?s=20

    • jrwolansky said

      Is the subscription to the custom chart archive only available as an annual subscription, or do you have shorter timeframes available for those who want to ‘give it a try’?

      • pugsma said

        2021 CCA is an annual subscription only. I’ve already charted 10+ stocks for 2021. It will reach 100+ easily during 2021. Plus, I will update the most interesting ones (several times) throughout the year.

    • kazoom1618 said

      I love it when you post a chart that I’ve been following, and your TA agrees with mine!
      It really boosts my confidence in the trade (And you always have cleaner targets than I do!)
      Thanks, Steve!

    • William Waggoner said

      THCX, ARKK weren’t on my radar at all when you first charted them. Very happy with the CCA service. Thanks Steve.

  3. pugsma said

    Just update the BYND Charts on the 2021 Custom Chart Archive

  4. pugsma said

    My THCX chart from Oct-Nov to hear on January 2021 has played out to near perfection!

    THCX chart just updated in the 2021 Chart Archive.

  5. Denali92 said

    With respect to opex week and the SPX / SPY, there is ABSOLUTELY no insight that I can provide….

    Only thing I will note, is that the IWM / RUT has maintained its rather amazingly pattern (70+% now) of following a down day with an UP DAY! Until that pattern changes, the market is not going down….

    Tuesday’s low was a bit more normal behavior relative to history for an opex week with a GAP DOWN on Opex Monday compared to the Monday lows that were made after Gap Downs in April and June… but otherwise, there is nothing to say…

    Next Tuesday and Wednesday post the MLK holiday will be key days – especially if the SPX is still working on an inside week. Inside weeks for opex week are quite rare. Technically, there was one in November 2020 using the SPY price data – which then saw the market break higher.

    I did a study a few years ago on opex weeks that were inside weeks and there was NO EDGE at all. About 1/2 the time, the play was to go with the break of the inside week range and the other half was to fade the break after a day or two…. Other than November 2020, I believe the last inside weeks were in 2018. (October – Broke lower and continued lower and February – broke higher, but then the move was faded and the market had a sharp sell off as it was in a very choppy period that did not end till early April)

    As I doubt there will be any reason to comment till next week, ENJOY the LONG WEEKEND!

    -D

  6. pugsma said

    Yet another day of rotation in the markets as small caps and financials along with re-open stocks led the way.

    Note: the NYMO closed up near +20 and the NYSE A-D line cumulative made a new all-time high.

    Very bullish internals.

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