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January 10th, 2021: SP-500 Years 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 Comparison

Posted by pugsma on January 10, 2021

As many have pointed out, year 2020 was almost a carbon copy (identical) to year 2009. So what IF year 2021 plays out like 2010? Below is how 2021 would look from wave count and SP-500 target level if it mirrors 2010.

Clearly I would need to adjust my existing primary (white/green) to show the major [3]-P1-C3 wave still on going, but nearing an important top between 3845 and 3900 in mid-January. Then a major [4] correction to the 3500 area into mid-Feb. Followed by a final wave up for major [5] the 4142 to 4200 area into the April-May time frame. Then a sharp P2 correction to the 3400 area into July. Finally the P3 wave up would make new all-time highs in to year end 2021 and beyond.

This is a wave count to strongly consider…

SP500 Technical Analysis

8 Responses to “January 10th, 2021: SP-500 Years 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 Comparison”

  1. j99becker said

    Great analog, Steve!

  2. Ralf Engel said

    Your advice seems to play out. Your comparison is very helpful and a good advice for further journey on spx.
    Have a good start in the week, great job done, thanks.

  3. MS53 said


  4. Jim Guthery said

    Is it possible that 3826.69 is top and we work our way to 3500 now? Or is this number not close enough to 3845?

    • pugsma said

      Yes, it is possible 3827 is the alternate (blue) major [3] top and and major [4] correction to a 23%/38% Fibs of 3583 to 3424 or a -6.8% to -10.5%

      • Jim Guthery said

        In your opinion which would be the more likely outcome coming off a (3) top? I was leaning more towards 38% but I have a tendency to get lost real quick as these moves happen so fast.

        • pugsma said

          The -10.5% correction to the 38% Fib for major [4] at 3424 would not surprise me. The rising 200-day SMA should be in the 3400 area by the time major [4] were to reach that target area.

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