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January 11th, 2021: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 11, 2021

6:30 pm EST: The SP-500 price gapped down from 3825 to 3805, dropped quickly to hit 3789 (days low), rose to 3818 (days high) and then drifted lower to close at 3800.

Market Technical Notes: 

  1. NYMO: The NYMO closed down at -10. The NYMO has struggled to re-gain and hold above the zero line since the dip to -32 before Christmas. This is sign of weak market breadth.
  2. VIX: The VIX closed up +11.7% at 24.08.  The VIX has been increasing as the SP-500 has increasing, which is a positive VIX divergence and is potential negative for the SP500 future price action.
  3. Chart Pattern:  None.
  4. NYSE A-D Line Cumulative: The A-D line cumulative closed down.

The primary (white/green) wave count is that the minor 3 or major [5]-P1-C3 wave up is underway to a target at major [5]=[1] 3972. Minor 3 should target 3916, where minor 3 =2.0*minor 1. Wave minute (1) of minor 3 completed at 3646 and wave minute (2) at 3512. Wave minute (3) up competed at 3770, where (3)=0.62(1) target at 3767. The minute (4) wave low was at 3663, just below the 38% Fib at 3672. The minute (5) of minor 3 up to new all-time highs should be underway. Within minute (5), wave i ended at 3738, wave ii at 3705 and the wave iii=2.62*i target is 3855. Wave iv-(5) should correct to a 23% Fib at 3821 and then v-(5) will complete from 3896 to 3916. Note: The primary (white/green) count as labeled remains valid above the minute (4) low at 3663, but staying above the 3770 pivot now is important for the continuation rally to 3916.

Over the weekend I introduced this years 2009-2010 to 2020-2021 SP-500 comparison. It brings up a better alternate (blue) wave count IF 2021 is going to play-out like 2010. The alternate (blue) count is that major [3]-P1-C3 is topping near the major [3]=1.62[1] target of 4003, where [3]=1.62[1]. Once major [3] completes, the major [4] targets are the 23%/38% Fibs at 3718/3533. Once major [4] completes, the major [5]=[1] targets are 4296/4481.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Anaylsis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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