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May 4th, 2020: SP-500 Charts Pre-market

Posted by pugsma on May 4, 2020

7:55 pm EST:   The primary (green/white) count is that major [1]-P1-C3 topped at 2954.  The minor A of major [2] wave should produce a 5-wave drop into the 2789 area.  Minute (1) completed at 2892, minute (2) at 2918, minute (3) at 2822 and minute (4) at 2840.   There should be a minute (5) drop to the (5)=(1) target of 2789 to complete minor A.  Once minor A completes, minor B should be a retrace to a 50% Fib at 2872.   Finally minor C should drop towards the C=A target of 2707.  The target 38% Fib for major [2] is at 2664.  The primary (green) count remains valid below the 2954 recovery high.

The alternate (blue) count is that minor 4 of major [1[-P1-C3 is dropping into the typical 23% to 38% Fib retracement area of 2837 to 2761.  The SP500 price remains in the parallel up channel off the 2192 low to about the 2759 pivot area and thus a minor 4 of major [1] is realistic probability here.   Once minor 4 completes, minor 5 of major [1] will extend beyond 2954 to at least the 3036 target.  The alternate (blue) count remains valid for minor 4 above the minor 1 high of 2637.

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD 5-1-20):

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD 5-1-20):

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD 5-1-20):

SP500 Technical Analysis

11 Responses to “May 4th, 2020: SP-500 Charts Pre-market”

  1. pugsma said

    Re-posting this here: The newly published PUG (Elliott) Wave Technical Analysis Tutorial is for any new members or trial members who are not familiar with how Elliott Wave based Technical Analysis works.

  2. pugsma said

  3. pugsma said

    The SP-500 60-min RSI (9) is more over sold at 20.60 this Monday May 4th, than it was (21.69) at the Cycle 2 bottom on Monday March 23rd.

    • hh101063 said

      Good morning – given the oversold state, is it likely that the drop to 2797 this morning is close enough to 2789 to represent minute (5) of Minor A meaning that we are now on the way uptowards 2872 as Minor B?

  4. pugsma said

    For the new comers here, one of the best technical set-ups is when both the primary and alternate counts align in the same directional call.

    The primary count is always my highest probability count. The setup is very good, when the primary aligns in the same direction of alternate count, as it does at this mornings low at 2798, with a target near 2872.

  5. Leslie Smith said

    /VX (VIX futures) is going down while the market is going down to sideways, this is a good bullish sign.

  6. JW said

    Steve, given SPX’s action this morning off of 2797.85, does it suggest that the Primary may have a bit more work to do on the downside below 2797?

  7. pugsma said

    FYI the 50% Fib of the 2954 to 2798 move is at 2876 (2872 pivot area).

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