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May 1st, 2020: SP500, QQQ and IWM 60-min Charts:

Posted by pugsma on May 1, 2020

12:30 pm:  The SP500 gapped down from 2912 to 2869, and dropped to 2825 by mid-day.

We potential major [1]-P1-C3 tops (green labels) across the SP500 (2954), QQQ  (120.04) and IWM (136.65).  This would mean a several weeks to a couple months pull-back for the respective major [2] waves.   I’d expect the SP500 ad QQQ to only retrace to the 38% Fib’s (2664 and 199.10).  The IWM will likely retrace to the 62% Fib at 111.39.

Alternatively (blue labels) all three are holding their respective lower up channel lines and could make new highs for major [1] into mid-to-late May.  This alternate (blue) count would be particular satisfying, as it would continue to work off the excessive bearish sentiment.

Have a great weekend !

SP500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

QQQ 60-min chart:

QQQ Technical Analysis

IWM 60-min chart:

IWM Technical Analysis

20 Responses to “May 1st, 2020: SP500, QQQ and IWM 60-min Charts:”

  1. nenehubb said

    On SPX, how low can minor 4 of major [1] go before the blue wave count becomes invalid? Thanks Steve!

    • pugsma said

      The minor 1 high at 2637. Thus it won’t come into play. The 23% to 38% Fib is 2838 to 2761. It should end in that range or else is a major [2] wave.

  2. MS53 said

    Thanks. On IWM chart for primary I’m seeing minor 3 as the shortest wave.

  3. Historically, today is VERY surprising.
    1) WORST first trading day in May – possibly EVER – certainly since 1976. Worst recent first trading day in May was in 2013 -.9%.

    2) NO late April to early May rally – this had happened 18 of the last 22 years…

    The last time there was not a rally in to May was 2018 – the market fell from April 30th until the 3rd trading day of May when it bottomed for the month and rallied… (before that was 2013 and then 2007)

    It is NOT surprising given the rally, PUG’s comment on IWM, the FOMC effect…. etc….

    How the SPX handles the 20 day MA near 2792 right now (assuming it gets to it…) will be interesting, as the strongest rallies like the Dec 2018 one do not tend to touch it for at least a month after crossing back above it. (post the Dec 2018 low it was almost 2 months).

    EARLY MAY Extreme – last point to mention, which I covered previously is that the SPX tends to make an extreme during the first four trading days of May. It has occurred 20 of the last 22 years…. and it was the HIGH or LOW for the month on 10 of those 22 years. Last year, the high for May was on May 1st. In 2018, the low for the month was on the 3rd trading day of May.

    Early next week could be very interesting.

    Have a good weekend,

    -D

  4. rat8nine said

    spx 5 – median line ahead in the potential A target area

  5. pugsma said

    For SP500 alt blue minor 4, (y)=1.62(w) at 2818.

  6. lauter1 said

    DJT (Transports) showing a possible 3 wave c=a move into todays low at 8081

  7. pugsma said

    Just remember that the major [2]-P1-C1 retracement in May-July of 2009 was only 30%.

    A 30% retrace from 2954 is 228 points to 2725 for major [2]-P1-C3.

    • pugsma said

      Major [1] peaked 956 in the first week of June 2009.

      Major [2] dropped to 856 by the second week of July 2009. Only 30% retracement.

  8. sagmd said

    Weekly NYAD closed positive 0.36%, while Weekly S&P closed negative 0.21% (second slightly negative weekly close)

    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$NYAD

  9. pugsma said

    This Sunday afternoon, I started the long over due work on the PUG (Elliott) Wave Technical Analysis Tutorial. It’s only the very basics for now. I have a lot of information I’ve learned over the past decade to document in the later chapters.

    https://pugsma.com/pug-elliott-wave-technical-analysis-tutorial/

  10. Bill S. said

    whoah!…

  11. Bill S. said

    Found something interesting about Friday’s session…

    Going back to 1965 there are only 2 other days besides this Friday where SPX closed down more than -2% while NYSE new highs >= new lows AND both new highs and new lows accounted for less than 0.2% of all issues traded. Those other 2 dates were 3/27/09 and 4/20/09.

    In the 3/27/09 instance the market gapped down big the next day and made an intraday low followed by a rally to a new recovery high within 3 trading days.

    In the 4/20/09 instance the market gapped down marginally lower and then rallied to a new recovery high within 6 trading days.

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