Technical Analysis Blog | PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

PUG Stock Market Analysis is here to help with SP500 technical analysis, stock analysis and more. Read our technical analysis blog to learn more.

March 20th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 20, 2020

5:25 pm EST:   The SP-500 opened gap up from 2408, hit 2453, and faded all day hitting 2296 before closing at 2304.

The VIX closed down -8% to 66 with the SP500 down -4%  This is a positive divergence on the VIX with respect to the SP500 price and is potentially bullish for future SP500 price.  Also the NYMO closed higher at -55 vs -60 yesterday with the SP500 price closing down -4%  and is potentially bullish for future SP500 price.  Maintaining the call that the 2281 low from Wednesday is the bottom for the Primary (green) count for the end of PC-C2 or the alternate (red) count PA-C2.

The  primary (green) wave is that the Cycle (C2) wave has been playing out as a 3-3-5 running flat since the September 2018 high at 2941 ended the Cycle 1 (C1) wave.  The 3-wave drop from 2941 to 2347 in December 2018 was a Primary A (PA) wave.  The 3-wave move up from 2347 to 3394 was a Primary B (PB) wave.   The Primary C (PC) 5-wave drop from 3394 to 2281, has been typical of PC wave of a Cycle degree flat in that it’s been very fast.  The major [1] of P1-C3 is underway with a target of 2695.  This primary (green) wave count remains valid above the 2281 low.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [5]-PC-C2 is playing out as an ending diagonal from the major [4] high at 2711.  The 2281 low is minor 3 of major [5].   The 2467 high is minor 4 of major [5].  The final minor 5 of major [5] wave down is underway and must remain above 2195 to keep the ending diagonal valid, where minor 5 < minor 3 < minor 1.  The major [5]=0.88[1] target is 2238 and the PC=2.0PA target at 2206.

The less probable bearish alternate (red) wave count is a C1 wave that peaked in February 2020 at 3394 and a large C2 wave 5-3-5 Zig-Zag down to the 50%/62%/78% Fib (off C1 3394 high) at 2031/1703/1269.   The initial PA-C2 wave down is looking to completed at 2281.  The PB-C2 wave should be bounce up to a 50%/62% Fib at 2838/2971 (basis PA at 2281).   Following the PB bounce, there will be another massive PC-C2 wave lower that will break below 2347.  The PC=PA target is 1858 (right between the 50%/62% Fib targets of 2031/1703).  The alternate (red) wave count remains valid below 3394.

Be safe, healthy and have a great weekend!   

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

 

SP-500 monthly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

 
%d bloggers like this: