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March 19th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on March 19, 2020

1:25 pm EST:   The SP-500 opened gap down from 2398, hit 2320, bounced to 2457, then has remained in a 2380 to 2432 range.

The 2281 low yesterday is the bottom for the Primary (green) count for the end of PC-C2 or the alternate (red) count PA-C2.

The  primary (green) wave is that the Cycle (C2) wave has been playing out as a 3-3-5 running flat since the September 2018 high at 2941 ended the Cycle 1 (C1) wave.  The 3-wave drop from 2941 to 2347 in December 2018 was a Primary A (PA) wave.  The 3-wave move up from 2347 to 3394 was a Primary B (PB) wave.   The Primary C (PC) 5-wave drop from 3394 to 2281, has been typical of PC wave of a Cycle degree flat in that it’s been very fast.  The major [1] of P1-C3 is underway with a target of 2597.  This primary (green) wave count remains valid above the 2281 low.

The alternate (blue) wave count is major [3]-PC-C2 ended at 2281, just above the typical major [3]=1.62[1] target at 2265.  This move up from 2281 is a major [4] wave that should retrace to the 23%/38% Fib at 2478/2606.  The major [4] wave remains valid below the major [1] low of 2856.  Once major [4] competes, there will be a final major [5] down toward the PC=2.0PA target at 2206 to PC=2.23PA target at 2069.  Note the 50% Fib retrace (of C1) is at 2031.

The less probable bearish alternate (red) wave count is a C1 wave that peaked in February 2020 at 3394 and a large C2 wave 5-3-5 Zig-Zag down to the 50%/62%/78% Fib (off C1 3394 high) at 2031/1703/1269.   The initial PA-C2 wave down is looking to completed at 2281.  The PB-C2 wave should be bounce up to a 50%/62% Fib at 2838/2971 (basis PA at 2281).   Following the PB bounce, there will be another massive PC-C2 wave lower that will break below 2347.  The PC=PA target is 1858 (right between the 50%/62% Fib targets of 2031/1703).  The alternate (red) wave count remains valid below 3394.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 Daily Chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 Weekly Chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

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