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January 7th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 7, 2020

1:35 pm EST:  The SP-500 has been trading in a range between 3212 and 3258 the past 7 trading days.   A break of this range will determine whether the primary (green) or alternate (blue) count that plays out.  The P5-C1 topping here at 3258 has been moved to less likely alternate (red) wave count.

The primary (green) wave count is major [3]-P5-C1 has been under way since the major [2] low at 2729 low.   The minimum target for the major [3] wave termination is at the [3]=[1] = 3336.   For the major [3] wave, the minute (5) of minor 5 wave has been underway since the recent 3212 low.  The move up from 3212 to 3258 is wave i-(5) and today’s drop to 3215 is wave ii-(5).  There should be waves iii-(5) and wave v-(5) up yet to come to reach the 3336 target in the next couple of weeks.  This primary (green) count should continue higher for much of 2020 and maybe even into 2021 before reach the P5-C1 cycle top.  A preliminary target for the primary (green) C1 top is the 3500 to 3600 area.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that the minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 peaked at 3258 and now a minor 4 wave drop to the 23% Fib of 3166 is underway.   There is a potential head and shoulders top at 3258 with neckline at 3212 and target of 3166.  Once the minor 4 wave completes, there will be a minor 5 of major [3] wave up to the [3]=[1] target of 3336.

The alternate (red) wave count is that major [5]-P5-C1 it playing out to triangle target of 3253 to 3327.  On January 2nd, the SP-500 closed at 3258, satisfying the minimum major [4] triangle target for the major [5] wave.  This could be the C1 top at 3258 or there couple still be another push up towards the 3300 area.  It will take a break below, 3212 and then 3150 to begin to confirm the major [5]-P5-C1 top.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

10 Responses to “January 7th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. pugsma said

    The SP-500 15-min chart shows a very distinct consolidation between 3212 and 3258.

    For the primary (green) count: There is potential double bottom pattern at 3212, that on a break above 3258 has a measured move target of 3258+(3258-3212) = 3304.

    For the alternate (blue) count: There is a potential head and shoulders top at 3258, than on a break of the 3212 neckline has a measured move target of 3212-(3256-3212) = 3166.

  2. MS53 said

    Sharp as ever, my man 👏👏

  3. pugsma said

    Who bought the SP500 after hours last evening down -50 points at 3187 equivalent ?

  4. pugsma said

    Primary count looking good!

  5. pugsma said

    Note: Today ends the “first 5 trading days” of the year. Historically if the first 5 trading days of the year end positive (ie SP500 above 3232) then the markets trade higher for the year 70% of the time. If the first 5 days end negative, then the market ends the year higher only 50% of the time.

    • pugsma said

      This phenomenon has a lot to do with the large institutional money that tends to put to work (or removed) during the first 5 days trading of year.

      Let’s watch and see if there a push up into the close today, indicating more money flow into the equities at the close of the 5th day.

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