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January 6th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update

Posted by pugsma on January 6, 2020

2:45 pm EST:  The SP-500 dropped to 3215 at the open, held the key 3212 level, and has rallied to 3242.

In E-wave theory it always important to continue to look at the evidence that piles up in favor of each wave count (primary vs alternate).   As time has gone on, more and more evidence has piled up to indicate that this current move up from 2729 is a major [3] wave and not a major [5] wave.  The daily and weekly chart RSI has made a new high, which just doesn’t typically happened during a major [5] wave.   The major [5] wave should result in momentum indicator (i.e. RSI, MACD, etc.) negative divergence with respect to SP500 price.  It’s also important the primary E-wave count “have the right look” and the large major [4] triangle in proportion to the small major [2] wave is far from ideal in terms of E-wave look.   Thus, it’s time to flip the primary (green) and alternate (blue) wave counts.

The primary (green) wave count is major [3]-P5-C1 has been under way since the major [2] low at 2729 low.   The minimum target for the major [3] wave termination is at the [3]=[1] = 3336.   For the major [3] wave, the minute (5) of minor 5 wave has been underway since the recent 3212 low.  The move up from 3212 to 3258 is wave i-(5) and today’s drop to 3215 is wave ii-(5).  There should be waves iii-(5) and wave v-(5) up yet to come to reach the 3336 target in the next couple of weeks.  This primary (green) count should continue higher for much of 2020 and maybe even into 2021 before reach the P5-C1 cycle top.  A preliminary target for the primary (green) C1 top is the 3500 to 3600 area.

The alternate (blue) wave count is that major [5]-P5-C1 it playing out to triangle target of 3253 to 3327.  On January 2nd, the SP-500 closed at 3258, satisfying the minimum major [4] triangle target for the major [5] wave.  This could be the C1 top at 3258 or there couple still be another push up towards the 3300 area.  It will take a break below, 3212 and then 3150 to begin to confirm the major [5]-P5-C1 top.

SP-500 15-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 60-min chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 4-hr chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 daily chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

SP-500 weekly chart:

SP500 Technical Analysis

6 Responses to “January 6th, 2020: SP-500 Chart Update”

  1. rat8nine said

    spx daily – the new primary count strikes me as being a more graceful finish to the cycle move up, and would give enough time for some negative divergences to emerge. It’s interesting that the [3]=[1] target at 3336 is close to the 1.618 external retrace of the move down from P3 to P4 at 3308. Steve, is it possible this all turns into an ending diagonal, where [5]<[3]<[1]?

  2. rat8nine said

    nflx daily – has the move up from 252 ended here in the .618 area just above the median line of the blue modified schiff set? Maybe. I find myself asking the question, if spx is only completing Major [3] here, and it takes another few months for it to trace out [4] and then [5], what laggards might surprise us? nflx is a prior leader that has disappointed during this move. If it woke up, I could see it finding a way to get to the 401 area at the upper blue line, where the inverse fibs lie, where:

    384.76 – 252.28 = 1.128 at 401.72
    423.21 – 231.23 = .886 at 401.32

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