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January 21st, 2016: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 21, 2016

5:20 pm EST:   It’s time to focus complete on the SP-500 Cycle 2 (Cyclical Bear Market) primary (red) wave count and several of it’s possible count variants on reaching the initial C2 target area of the 1575 pivot.   The 1st alternate (blue) and 2nd alternate (pink) wave counts  discussed and shown below are those variants.   As always the primary (red) count is the most probable wave path, 1st alternate (blue) is the 2nd most probably and the 2nd alternate (pink) is unlikely, but possible.

The primary (red) count is that Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave topped at 2116 and has begun the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1575 pivot target area.   Within PC, the major [1] wave completed at the 1812 at the 1814 pivot area.   The major [2] wave Fibonacci retrace of 50%/62% to the 1964/2000 area is underway.  Major [2] in simplest form will be a minor A-B-C Zig-Zag.  The first 5-wave minute degree move for minor A should reach the 1926 pivot area before a 50% retrace to the 1849 pivot area for minor B and finally another 5-wave move for minor C to the 1991 pivot area.   Once major [2] completes, the major [3] wave down begins a massive sell-off toward the PC-C2 target of 1575.  The primary (red) count remains valid as long as the major [2] wave remains below the PB-C2 high of 2116.

The 1st alternate (blue) count is that major [1]-PC-C2 is just completing the minor 4 wave and still needs one more low below 1812 to complete minor 5 of major [1] at the 1775.

The 2nd alternate (pink) count is that major [1]-PC completed  at 2019 and major [2] at 2104.  Thus major [3]-PC has been underway since 2104 and will target 1695, where major [3] = 4.21*[1], as shown on the SPX daily chart.  The 2nd alternate (pink) count is still 173 points (-9%) from finding it’s major [3] low.

House Keeping:  I’m out of the office on Friday, Jan 22nd.  The next blog update will be on Monday, Jan 25th.

Have a great weekend !!!

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 1-21-16

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 1-21-16

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 1-21-16

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 1-21-16

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 1-21-16

SP-500 monthly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 monthly EOD 1-21-16

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