January 20th, 2016: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on January 20, 2016
6:40 pm EST: Today the SP-500 price hit the bottom target of the major -PC-C2 range at 1812 and bounced 64 points (+3.5%) intra-day to 1876 before closing at 1859 with a confirmed bullish daily hammer candle. The McClellan Oscillator ($NYNO) is showing a slight potential +DIV with last weeks closing SPX low of 1980 and -89.20 vs today at 1959 and -88.73. There is larger $NYMO potential +DIV with the SPX closing August low of 1962 and -104.27 vs today at 1959 and -88.73.
The primary (red) count is that Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave topped at 2116 and has begun the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1575 pivot target area. Within PC, the major  wave likely completed today at the 1812 at the 1814 pivot area. The major  wave Fibonacci retrace of 50%/62% to the 1964/2000 area is underway. Major  in simplest form will be a minor A-B-C Zig-Zag. The first 5-wave minute degree move for minor A should reach the 1926 pivot area before a 50% retrace to the 1849 pivot area for minor B and finally another 5-wave move for minor C to the 1991 pivot area. Once major  completes, the major  wave down begins a massive sell-off toward the PC-C2 target of 1575. The primary (red) count remains valid as long as the major  wave remains below the PB-C2 high of 2116.
The alternate (blue) count is a large P4-C1 flat wave with major [A] complete at 1867, major [B] complete at 2116 and now the major [C] wave down is likely complete at 1812, just below the [C]=[A]=1848 target. Once P4 completes, there should be impulse P5 wave to the final Cycle 1 (C1) top, with a target at P5=0.62*P1 = 2248. The SP-500 price breaking above 2116 is required to confirm the alternate (blue) wave count. This alternate (blue) remains a very low probability count option unless the SP-500 price moves above the 62% Fib retrace of 2000.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
SP-500 daily chart (EOD):
SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):
SP-500 monthly chart (EOD):
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