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January 20th, 2016: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 20, 2016

6:40 pm EST:  Today the SP-500 price hit the bottom target of the major [1]-PC-C2 range at 1812 and bounced 64 points (+3.5%) intra-day to 1876 before closing at 1859 with a confirmed bullish daily hammer candle.   The McClellan Oscillator ($NYNO) is showing a slight potential +DIV with last weeks closing SPX low of 1980 and -89.20 vs today at 1959 and -88.73.  There is larger $NYMO potential +DIV with the SPX closing August low of 1962 and -104.27 vs today at 1959 and -88.73.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24NYAD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p32152966307&a=269536931&r=1450045167343&cmd=print

The primary (red) count is that Primary B (PB) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave topped at 2116 and has begun the Primary C (PC) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave headed to the 1575 pivot target area.   Within PC, the major [1] wave likely completed today at the 1812 at the 1814 pivot area.   The major [2] wave Fibonacci retrace of 50%/62% to the 1964/2000 area is underway.  Major [2] in simplest form will be a minor A-B-C Zig-Zag.  The first 5-wave minute degree move for minor A should reach the 1926 pivot area before a 50% retrace to the 1849 pivot area for minor B and finally another 5-wave move for minor C to the 1991 pivot area.   Once major [2] completes, the major [3] wave down begins a massive sell-off toward the PC-C2 target of 1575.  The primary (red) count remains valid as long as the major [2] wave remains below the PB-C2 high of 2116.

The alternate (blue) count is a large P4-C1 flat wave with major [A] complete at 1867, major [B] complete at 2116 and now the major [C] wave down is likely complete at 1812, just below the [C]=[A]=1848 target.  Once P4 completes, there should be impulse P5 wave to the final Cycle 1 (C1) top, with a target at  P5=0.62*P1 = 2248.  The SP-500 price breaking above 2116 is required to confirm the alternate (blue) wave count.  This alternate (blue) remains a very low probability count option unless the SP-500 price moves above the 62% Fib retrace of 2000.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 1-20-16

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 1-20-16

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 1-20-16

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 Daily EOD 1-20-16

 

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 1-20-16

SP-500 monthly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 monthly EOD 1-20-16

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