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September 16th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on September 16, 2015

4:30 pm EST:   The SP-500 price hit 1997 today and is now right at the upper limit of 1991 pivot range and the 50% retrace (2001) of the fall from 2135 to 1867.  The for the alternate wave counts, the SPX price must turn down immediately from this 1997-2001 area and break below the 1956 pivot or else the primary wave count will be confirmed with the SP-500 price headed for at least 2044 and has high has 2103 over the next few weeks.

The primary (white/green) count has the major [B]-PB-C2 triangle on going with the move up from 1911 to 1989 as the minor B wave and the move down from 1989 to 1937 is minor C.   From this minor C low of 1937 there are two options depending on if the triangle is a contracting or ascending type.   If the triangle is a contracting type, then the minor D wave completed at 1965 and the minor E wave ended at 1941 completing major [B]-PB and thus the major [C]-PB wave up is underway headed for a first target area of 2033-2044.  If the triangle is an ascending type, then minor D completed at 1997 and now a  small minor E wave back down to 1970 to complete major [B]-PB.   Once the major [B] triangle completes, the major [C]-PB wave should head for the 2046 pivot area.   Note that the 62% retrace target of PA-C2 for PB-C2 is at 2033 and there is a gap to fill at 2034-2036 on the break down for the 2046 pivot.

The alternate (blue) count has the Primary A (PA) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave still underway with the major [3]-PA low at 1867 and this move up from 1867 has formed a major wave [4] ascending triangle wave.   Within major [4], the minor A wave reached 1993, minor B dropped to 1911, the minor C wave hit 1989, minor D wave stopped at 1937 and now the minor E wave of major [4] is complete at the 1991 pivot resistance (1997).  Once major [4] completes, the major [5] wave should drop to a new low below 1867 with a major [5] = 1.62*[1] target of 1842.  There is also a 88% retrace of the P5-C1 wave up from 1814 to 2135 at a target of 1857 and 1849 pivot support to complete this PA-C1 wave.  Note that a move above 1991 pivot (1998) would likely mean the primary count is correct.

The very bearish alternate (red) count the has PB-C2 wave completing as an ascending triangle below the 50% retrace of PA-C2 target of 2001.  From a PB-C2 completion at 1997, the PC-C2 Fibonacci extension targets are PC = PA = 1729, PC = 1.23*PA = 1667, and PC = 1.62*PA = 1563 (most likely as it re-test the year 2007 high).  Note that a move above 1991 pivot (1998) would likely mean the primary count is correct.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 9-16-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 9-16-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 9-16-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 9-16-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 9-16-15

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