September 16th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on September 16, 2015
4:30 pm EST: The SP-500 price hit 1997 today and is now right at the upper limit of 1991 pivot range and the 50% retrace (2001) of the fall from 2135 to 1867. The for the alternate wave counts, the SPX price must turn down immediately from this 1997-2001 area and break below the 1956 pivot or else the primary wave count will be confirmed with the SP-500 price headed for at least 2044 and has high has 2103 over the next few weeks.
The primary (white/green) count has the major [B]-PB-C2 triangle on going with the move up from 1911 to 1989 as the minor B wave and the move down from 1989 to 1937 is minor C. From this minor C low of 1937 there are two options depending on if the triangle is a contracting or ascending type. If the triangle is a contracting type, then the minor D wave completed at 1965 and the minor E wave ended at 1941 completing major [B]-PB and thus the major [C]-PB wave up is underway headed for a first target area of 2033-2044. If the triangle is an ascending type, then minor D completed at 1997 and now a small minor E wave back down to 1970 to complete major [B]-PB. Once the major [B] triangle completes, the major [C]-PB wave should head for the 2046 pivot area. Note that the 62% retrace target of PA-C2 for PB-C2 is at 2033 and there is a gap to fill at 2034-2036 on the break down for the 2046 pivot.
The alternate (blue) count has the Primary A (PA) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave still underway with the major [3]-PA low at 1867 and this move up from 1867 has formed a major wave [4] ascending triangle wave. Within major [4], the minor A wave reached 1993, minor B dropped to 1911, the minor C wave hit 1989, minor D wave stopped at 1937 and now the minor E wave of major [4] is complete at the 1991 pivot resistance (1997). Once major [4] completes, the major [5] wave should drop to a new low below 1867 with a major [5] = 1.62*[1] target of 1842. There is also a 88% retrace of the P5-C1 wave up from 1814 to 2135 at a target of 1857 and 1849 pivot support to complete this PA-C1 wave. Note that a move above 1991 pivot (1998) would likely mean the primary count is correct.
The very bearish alternate (red) count the has PB-C2 wave completing as an ascending triangle below the 50% retrace of PA-C2 target of 2001. From a PB-C2 completion at 1997, the PC-C2 Fibonacci extension targets are PC = PA = 1729, PC = 1.23*PA = 1667, and PC = 1.62*PA = 1563 (most likely as it re-test the year 2007 high). Note that a move above 1991 pivot (1998) would likely mean the primary count is correct.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):
SP-500 daily chart (EOD):
SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):
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