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September 15th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on September 15, 2015

4:35 pm EST:  Today the SP-500 price broke up and out of the contracting triangle but not the flat top (1991) ascending triangle.  Thus, all three wave count options are still on the table until the 1991 pivot is exceeded.

The primary (white/green) count has the major [B]-PB-C2 triangle on going with the move up from 1911 to 1989 as the minor B wave and the move down from 1989 to 1937 is minor C.   From this are there are two options depending on if the triangle is contracting or ascending.   If the triangle is contracting, then the minor D wave completed at 1965 and the minor E wave ended at 1941 completing major [B]-PB and thus the major [C]-PB wave up is underway headed for a first target area of 2033-2044.  If the triangle is ascending then minor D (1983 thus far) is headed for 1991, then a minor E wave back down to the 1956 pivot to complete major [B]-PB.   Once the major [B] triangle completes, the major [C]-PB wave should head for the 2046 pivot area.   Note that the 62% retrace target of PA-C2 for PB-C2 is at 2033 and there is a gap to fill at 2034-2036 on the break down for the 2046 pivot.

The alternate (blue) count has the Primary (A) of Cycle 2 (C2) wave still underway with the major [3]-PA low at 1867.  This move up from 1867 has formed a major wave [4] ascending triangle wave.   Within major [4], the minor A wave reached 1993, minor B dropped to 1911, the minor C wave hit 1989, minor D wave stopped at 1937 and now the minor E wave (1983 thus far) of major [4] is completing near the 1991 pivot resistance.  Once major [4] completes, the major [5] wave should drop to a new low below 1867 with a major [5] = 1.62*[1] target of 1842.  There is also a 88% retrace of the P5-C1 wave up from 1814 to 2135 at a target of 1857 and 1849 pivot support to complete this PA-C1 wave.  Note that a move above 1991 pivot would likely mean the primary count is correct.

The very bearish alternate (red) count the has PB-C2 wave completing as an ascending triangle below the 50% retrace of PA-C2 target of 2001.  From a PB-C2 completion at 1989, the PC-C2 Fibonacci extension targets are PC = PA = 1721, PC = 1.23*PA = 1659, and PC = 1.62*PA = 1555 (most likely as it re-test the year 2007 high).  Note that a move above 1991 pivot would likely mean the primary count is correct.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min EOD 9-15-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min EOD 9-15-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr EOD 9-15-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily EOD 9-15-15

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly EOD 9-15-15

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