Technical Analysis Blog | PUG Stock Market Analysis, LLC

PUG Stock Market Analysis is here to help with Gold technical analysis, stock analysis and more. Read our technical analysis blog to learn more today.

April 29th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on April 29, 2015

6:45 pm EST:  The SP-500 price reached 2126,on Monday April 27th, just 8 points shy of the lower C=A = 2134 target to complete major [5]-P5-C1 of the large Primary 5 (P5) wave Ending Diagonal (ED) that us been underway since mid-Oct 2014.   Since then the SP-500 price has tested key support at the 2094 pivot twice and held, but has also failed to re-gain the 2120 pivot.   At this point there is a least a 50/50 chance that P5-C1 topped at 2126 per the primary wave count lower C=A=2134 target.  However, a break below 2072 and then 2046/2040 is needed to confirm the P5-C1 top.  The ED lower yellow rising trend-line has not be broken, so there is still room the minor C wave to creep higher toward the C=1.62*A = 2172 target.   However, in either case there is a great deal of negative divergence building on the daily and weekly RSI and MACD indicators, indicating that the primary count for P5-C1 top now are in the next few weeks is much more likely than the very bullish alternate (blue) count.

The primary count is that major [4]-P5-C1 ended at 2046 and the final push for major [5]-P5-C1 is underway.  Within major [5], wave minor A completed at 2108 and minor B traced out an expanded flat down to 2072.  From the minor B low of 2072, the minor C wave up has been underway with a target at either C=A=2134 (red count variant) or C=1.62*A=2172 (green count variant).  Note P5 = 0.5*P1 = 2172.  For the green count variant, within minor C, wave (1) completed at 2126, wave (2) completed at the 62% retrace target of 2095 and now wave (3) should target the 1.23*(1) extension at 2161.  Note that the Primary 5 (P5) ED maximum is 2185=(2046 + (2120-1981)), as the requirement for an ED wave is [5] < [3] < [1].  Above 2185, the very bullish alternate (blue) count becomes the primary count.

The very bullish alternate (blue) count variant of the primary count is major [3]-P5-C1 is unfolding with a target at [3]=1.62[1] = 2401 and P5=P1 = 2524.  Within major [3], we have minor 1 at 2120, minor 2 at 2046 and now minor 3 is underway with a target of 1.62*minor 1 = 2271.  Within minor 3, we have minute (1) at 2108 , minute (2) at 2072 and now minute (3) underway with a target of 2.62*(1) = 2234,   Within minute (3), we have minuette i at 2126, minuette ii at 2095, and now minuete iii underway with at target of 1.62*i = 2182.   Thus, the alternate (blue) count is in a very bullish configuration of a wave iii-(3) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 meaning the SP-500 would grind higher will only small retracement the next 6 months.

On a break below 2040/2046 we will have a confirmed Cycle 1 (C1) top.   Once we found the C1 top, the Cycle 2 (C2) wave is likely headed for the 50% Fibonacci retrace area of 1419 over the next year.  The first Primary A (PA ) wave of C2 is likely to reach the 1814 pivot area (-15% correction).

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 4-29-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 4-29-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 4-29-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 4-29-15

Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.

 
%d bloggers like this: