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April 29th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on April 29, 2015

6:45 pm EST:  The SP-500 price reached 2126,on Monday April 27th, just 8 points shy of the lower C=A = 2134 target to complete major [5]-P5-C1 of the large Primary 5 (P5) wave Ending Diagonal (ED) that us been underway since mid-Oct 2014.   Since then the SP-500 price has tested key support at the 2094 pivot twice and held, but has also failed to re-gain the 2120 pivot.   At this point there is a least a 50/50 chance that P5-C1 topped at 2126 per the primary wave count lower C=A=2134 target.  However, a break below 2072 and then 2046/2040 is needed to confirm the P5-C1 top.  The ED lower yellow rising trend-line has not be broken, so there is still room the minor C wave to creep higher toward the C=1.62*A = 2172 target.   However, in either case there is a great deal of negative divergence building on the daily and weekly RSI and MACD indicators, indicating that the primary count for P5-C1 top now are in the next few weeks is much more likely than the very bullish alternate (blue) count.

The primary count is that major [4]-P5-C1 ended at 2046 and the final push for major [5]-P5-C1 is underway.  Within major [5], wave minor A completed at 2108 and minor B traced out an expanded flat down to 2072.  From the minor B low of 2072, the minor C wave up has been underway with a target at either C=A=2134 (red count variant) or C=1.62*A=2172 (green count variant).  Note P5 = 0.5*P1 = 2172.  For the green count variant, within minor C, wave (1) completed at 2126, wave (2) completed at the 62% retrace target of 2095 and now wave (3) should target the 1.23*(1) extension at 2161.  Note that the Primary 5 (P5) ED maximum is 2185=(2046 + (2120-1981)), as the requirement for an ED wave is [5] < [3] < [1].  Above 2185, the very bullish alternate (blue) count becomes the primary count.

The very bullish alternate (blue) count variant of the primary count is major [3]-P5-C1 is unfolding with a target at [3]=1.62[1] = 2401 and P5=P1 = 2524.  Within major [3], we have minor 1 at 2120, minor 2 at 2046 and now minor 3 is underway with a target of 1.62*minor 1 = 2271.  Within minor 3, we have minute (1) at 2108 , minute (2) at 2072 and now minute (3) underway with a target of 2.62*(1) = 2234,   Within minute (3), we have minuette i at 2126, minuette ii at 2095, and now minuete iii underway with at target of 1.62*i = 2182.   Thus, the alternate (blue) count is in a very bullish configuration of a wave iii-(3) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 meaning the SP-500 would grind higher will only small retracement the next 6 months.

On a break below 2040/2046 we will have a confirmed Cycle 1 (C1) top.   Once we found the C1 top, the Cycle 2 (C2) wave is likely headed for the 50% Fibonacci retrace area of 1419 over the next year.  The first Primary A (PA ) wave of C2 is likely to reach the 1814 pivot area (-15% correction).

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 4-29-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 4-29-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 4-29-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 4-29-15

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