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April 24th, 2015: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on April 24, 2015

4:45 pm EST:  The SP-500 main a nominal new all-time high today at 2120.92.

The primary count is that major [4]-P5-C1 ended at 2046 and the final push for major [5]-P5-C1 is underway.  Within major [5], wave minor A completed at 2108 and minor B traced out an expanded flat down to 2072.  From the minor B low of 2072, the minor C wave up has been underway with a target at either C=A=2134 or C=1.62*A=2172 (Note P5 = 0.5*P1 = 2172).  Within minor C, wave (1) completed at 2110, wave (2) completed at the 50% retrace target of 2091 and now wave (3) should target the 1.62*(1) extension at 2153.  Note that the Primary 5 (P5) ED maximum is 2185=(2046 + (2120-1981)), as the requirement for an ED wave is [5] < [3] < [1].  Above 2185, the very bullish alternate (blue) count becomes the primary count.

The very bullish alternate (blue) count variant of the primary count is major [3]-P5-C1 is unfolding with a target at [3]=1.62[1] = 2401 and P5=P1 = 2524.  Within major [3], we have minor 1 at 2120, minor 2 at 2046 and now minor 3 is underway with a target of 1.62*minor 1 = 2271.  Within minor 3, we have minute (1) at 2108 , minute (2) at 2072 and now minute (3) underway with a target of 2.62*(1) = 2234,   Within minute (3), we have minuette i at 2111, minuette ii at 2091, and now minuete iii underway with at target of 2.62*i = 2193.   Thus, the alternate (blue) count is in a very bullish configuration of a wave iii-(3) of minor 3 of major [3]-P5-C1 meaning the SP-500 would grind higher will only small retracement the next 6 months.

The very bearish alternate (red) count variant of the primary count is major [4]-P5-C1 ending at 2040 and the final put for major [5]-P5-C1 complete today at 2121, where C=A.  This alternate (red) count must terminate immediately here are 2121 and break below 2072 and 2040 for confirmation.  Above 2121 the alternate (red) count is invalid and the primary or alternate (blue) counts is the correct past forward.

On a break below 2040/2046 we will have a confirmed Cycle 1 (C1) top.   Once we found the C1 top, the Cycle 2 (C2) wave is likely headed for the 50% Fibonacci retrace area of 1419 over the next year.  The first Primary A (PA ) wave of C2 is likely to reach the 1814 pivot area (-15% correction).

Have a wonderful weekend.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart 4-24-15

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart 4-24-15

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart 4-24-15

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart 4-24-15

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