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October 3rd, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on October 3, 2014

6:00 pm EST:   The VIX Sell, SPX Buy signal confirmed the 3rd and final step today with the red VIX close. This give the alternate (blue) count a boost and places the counts at near 50/50 probability.   Also, the $NYMO put in a positive divergence yesterday and has risen sharply the past two days (i.e. indicating strong market internals).  The $NYMO is back to the key -20 to zero area and a move above zero would further increase the odds for the alternate (blue) wave count, making it the new primary wave count.


The short-term, intermediate-term and long-term primary and alternate wave count details are clearly shown on the charts below.  One thing I will point out is that the shallow P4-C1 wave correction of the alternate (blue) count will likely lead to a P5-C1 (Cycle 1 Top) much sooner (spring/summer year 2015) than the primary count with the deeper P4-C1 correction that likely won’t see a P5-C1 top until late in the year 2016.   Also interesting to note is that the alternate (blue) count could see a top P5-C1 about the time the US Federal Reserve begins to increase interest rates next year.

Have a great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 15-min chart EOD 10-3-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

SP-500 60-min chart EOD 10-3-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 10-3-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

SP-500 daily chart EOD 10-3-14

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

SP-500 weekly chart EOD 10-3-14

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