October 2nd, 2014: SP-500 Mid-day/EOD Update
Posted by pugsma on October 2, 2014
1:15 pm EST: Primary count looks to have completed the minor 3 of major [A]-P4-C1 low the 1926 pivot. Now expecting a minor 4 wave bounce to the 23%/38% fib retrace targets of 1943/1954. There is the wave 4 of previous degree at 1951, which is often the target. This minor 4 wave can not exceed the minor 1 low of 1979 or else the major [A]-P4 low is in place at 1926 and the major [B]-P4 bounce is underway. Assuming minor 4 remains below 1979, there should be a minor 5 low around the 1905 pivot yet to come to complete major [A]-P4-C1. There is new very bullish alternate (blue) count based on the Russell-2000 weekly chart presented this morning: http://pugsma.com/2014/10/02/october-2nd-2014-rut-wave-count-update/ The alternate (blue) count aligns the SP-500 and Russell-2000 to a July P3-C1 top (1991 on the SP-500) and a completion of P4-C1 here in early October at the SP-500 1926/1905 pivots. From an E-wave perspective this alternate (blue) count is very attractive for both the SP-500 and Russell-2000, as this very shallow P4-C1 wave Flat would alternate well with the very sharp P2-C1 wave Zig-Zag correction in the year 2011. For the P4-C1 flat we have targets at [C]=[A]=1933, [C]=1.23*[A]=1913 and [C]=1.62*[A]=1880. I put this alternate (blue) count at about 40%/60% odds with respect to the primary count. Should the SP-500 rally back above the 1991 pivot, I would put the alternate (blue) count at 60%/40% odds and above the 2019 pivot the odds are 100%.
SP-500 15-min chart (EOD): 
SP-500 60-min chart (EOD): 
SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD): 
SP-500 daily chart (EOD): 
SP-500 weekly chart (EOD): 
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