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April 4th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on April 4, 2014

4:55 pm EST:  Yet another new all-time high was made for the SP-500 today at 1897.28.  However, after hitting this new high the SP-500 sold-off considerably to hit 1863.26 late this afternoon before closing at 1865.09.  Also there was large selling in the Nasdaq and Russel-2000 with both closing well below their respective 50-day SMA.  The primary count on the SP-500 is still intact with the hold above the 1842 level, but the Nasdaq and Russel-2000 price action since early March is warning that the P3-C1 top may now be in place at 1897 or very near.

The primary count is that wave (1) of minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 topped at 1894 and the move down to 1883 up to 1897 and down to 1863 was an a-b-c expanded flat for wave (2).   The 62% retrace for wave (2) is at 1862, which fits with a wave (2) of minor 5 wave count.  Wave (2) of minor 5 must remain above the minor 4 low of 1842 for the primary wave count to remain valid.  Should wave (2) need to correct further there are the 78%/88% retrace targets at 1853/1848.  Assuming wave (2) is complete at 1863, wave (3) of minor should be underway headed for a target of 1947, where (3)=1.62*(1).  This would likely put the P3-C1 high at 1953, where P3=1.23*P1 sometime later in April.

The new alternate (blue) count is that P3-C1 topped today at 1897 and that the P4-C1 correction is now underway.  The first leg down of the correction is the major [A]-P4 wave that is likely headed for the 200-day SMA of 1755 or the 1775 pivot area.  Within this major [A] wave, there should be 5 minor waves.  Minor 1 of major [A] may have completed today 1863 and there will next be a minor 2 bounce of about a 50% retract to 1880 before minor 3 drops to 1791 where minor 3 =2.62*minor 1.  Ultimately I’m looking for P4-C1 to move lower, white channel line on the weekly chart later in 2014 and reach the 23%/38% retrace target of 1707 /1584.  The alternate (blue) count remains valid below the 1897 level.

Have  great weekend !

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 4-4-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 4-4-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 4-4-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 4-4-14

SP-500 weekly chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 weekly chart EOD 4-4-14

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