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April 7th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on April 7, 2014

5:35 pm EST:   The 1842.11 level was slightly breached today invalidating the primary wave count as labeled EOD April 4th.

Primary count has been adjusted to show the consolidation since early March as a minor 2 of major [5]-P3-C1 wave.  It looks like this minor 2 wave is playing out as an expanded flat with (a) of minor 4 at 1840, (b) of minor 2 at 1897 and now wave (c) of minor 2 is complete or nearing completion.  The ideal target for wave (c) of minor 2 for the expanded flat is (c)=1.62*(a) = 1826, which is also at the 38% retracement of 1829.  Once wave (c) of minor 2 is complete minor 3 and minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 will head to a new high above 1897.  The initial P3-C1 target is still 1941/1953, where [5]=0.62*[1] but now there is also a higher target at 2085, where major [5]=[1].  The primary wave count for minor 2 remains valid above the major [4] low of 1738.

The alternate (blue) count is that P3-C1 topped at 1897 and that the P4-C1 correction is underway.  The first leg down of the correction is the major [A]-P4 wave that is likely headed for the 200-day SMA of 1755 or the 1775 pivot area.  Within this major [A] wave, there should be 5 minor waves.  Minor 1 of major [A] may have completed today 1841 and there will next be a minor 2 bounce of about a 50%/62% retrace to 1869/1876 before minor 3 drops to 1778 where minor 3 =1.62*minor 1.  Ultimately I’m looking for P4-C1 to move lower, white channel line on the weekly chart later in 2014 and reach the 23%/38% retrace target of 1707 /1584.  The alternate (blue) count remains valid below the 1897 level.

SP-500 15-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 4-7-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60min EOD 4-7-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 4-7-14

SP-500 daily chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 daily chart EOD 4-7-14

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