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January 29th, 2014: SP-500 EOD Update

Posted by pugsma on January 29, 2014

5:35 pm EST:   The VIX Sell, SPX Buy trigger (step 2) was saved today with the VIX closing at 17.35 below its upper BB of 17.43.   The $NYMO and SPX price both closed below their respective BB’s resetting those SPX Buy triggers.  However, as you can see on the chart below the $NYMO shows a two-day positive divergence with the -54 level set on  Monday’s close with the SPX at 1781 vs -50 on the $NYMO today with the SPX closing at 1774.  This is a short-term, 2 to 3 day SP-500 Buy trigger.  Also the VIX shows a two-day negative divergence with respect to SPX price, which is actually a positive for future SP-500 price action.

The primary count is that wave v-(c) of minor 4 of major 5 of major [5]-P3-C1 is complete 1770.45 or nearly complete as an Ending Diagonal (ED) see the 5-min chart details.  If the ED is not complete at 1770.45, then there could be one more move down to a maximum of 1766.09.    Once minor 4 is complete, minute (1) of minor 5 should rally to the 1830 to 1849 area.  There will be a minute (2) wave retrace to 1810/1800  to form the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern that once the neckline at 1849 is broken in the minor 3 wave up will target the 1930 area to complete minor 5 of major [5]-P3-C1.    This primary count remains valid as long as the minor 1 low of 1730 is not breached.

The alternate (blue) count is that wave (5) of minor 1 of major [A]-P4-C1 is complete at 1770.45 or nearly complete as an Ending Diagonal, see the 5-min chart for details.    Once this minor 1 wave is complete, there should be a move up from minor 2 to the 50%/62% retrace target of 1810/1820, before wave minor 3 drops to the 1730 to 1709 pivot area.  Note the head and shoulders pattern on the 60-min chart with head at 1815, neckline at 1868 and target of 1689.  Ultimately major [A]-P4-C1 should target the Head and Shoulders Pattern target of the 1687 pivot area.  Note should the SP-500 price continue to drop below the 1768 neckline without a bounce to the 1814 pivot then, the move up 1794 yesterday would become minor 2 and minor 3 is currently underway headed for the 1709 pivot is currently underway.  Key day again tomorrow.

SP-500 vs $NYMO vs VIX:

PUG SP-500 vs $NYMO vs VIX 1-29-14

SP-500 5-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 5-min chart EOD 1-29-14

SP-500 15-min char (EOD):

PUG SP-500 15-min chart EOD 1-29-14

SP-500 60-min chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 60-min chart EOD 1-29-14

SP-500 4-hr chart (EOD):

PUG SP-500 4-hr chart EOD 1-29-14

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